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Civilization's Last Chance: The Planet Is Nearing a Tipping Point on Climate Change, and It Gets Much Worse, Fast
Even for Americans -- who are constitutionally convinced that there will always be a second act, and a third, and a do-over after that, and, if necessary, a little public repentance and forgiveness and a Brand New Start -- even for us, the world looks a little terminal right now.
It's not just the economy: We've gone through swoons before. It's that gas at $4 a gallon means we're running out, at least of the cheap stuff that built our sprawling society. It's that when we try to turn corn into gas, it helps send the price of a loaf of bread shooting upward and helps ignite food riots on three continents. It's that everything is so tied together. It's that, all of a sudden, those grim Club of Rome types who, way back in the 1970s, went on and on about the "limits to growth" suddenly seem ... how best to put it, right.
All of a sudden it isn't morning in America, it's dusk on planet Earth.
There's a number -- a new number -- that makes this point most powerfully. It may now be the most important number on Earth: 350. As in parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
A few weeks ago, NASA's chief climatologist, James Hansen, submitted a paper to Science magazine with several coauthors. The abstract attached to it argued -- and I have never read stronger language in a scientific paper -- that "if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm."
Hansen cites six irreversible tipping points -- massive sea level rise and huge changes in rainfall patterns, among them -- that we'll pass if we don't get back down to 350 soon; and the first of them, judging by last summer's insane melt of Arctic ice, may already be behind us.
So it's a tough diagnosis. It's like the doctor telling you that your cholesterol is way too high and, if you don't bring it down right away, you're going to have a stroke. So you take the pill, you swear off the cheese, and, if you're lucky, you get back into the safety zone before the coronary. It's like watching the tachometer edge into the red zone and knowing that you need to take your foot off the gas before you hear that clunk up front.
In this case, though, it's worse than that because we're not taking the pill and we are stomping on the gas -- hard. Instead of slowing down, we're pouring on the coal, quite literally. Two weeks ago came the news that atmospheric carbon dioxide had jumped 2.4 parts per million last year -- two decades ago, it was going up barely half that fast.
And suddenly the news arrives that the amount of methane, another potent greenhouse gas accumulating in the atmosphere, has unexpectedly begun to soar as well. It appears that we've managed to warm the far north enough to start melting huge patches of permafrost, and massive quantities of methane trapped beneath it have begun to bubble forth.
And don't forget: China is building more power plants; India is pioneering the $2,500 car; and Americans are buying TVs the size of windshields, which suck juice ever faster.
Here's the thing. Hansen didn't just say that if we didn't act, there was trouble coming. He didn't just say that if we didn't yet know what was best for us, we'd certainly be better off below 350 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
His phrase was: "if we wish to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed." A planet with billions of people living near those oh-so-floodable coastlines. A planet with ever-more vulnerable forests. (A beetle, encouraged by warmer temperatures, has already managed to kill 10 times more trees than in any previous infestation across the northern reaches of Canada this year. This means far more carbon heading for the atmosphere and apparently dooms Canada's efforts to comply with the Kyoto protocol, which was already in doubt because of its decision to start producing oil for the U.S. from Alberta's tar sands.)
We're the ones who kicked the warming off; now the planet is starting to take over the job. Melt all that Arctic ice, for instance, and suddenly the nice white shield that reflected 80% of incoming solar radiation back into space has turned to blue water that absorbs 80% of the sun's heat. Such feedbacks are beyond history, though not in the sense that Francis Fukuyama had in mind.
And we have, at best, a few years to short-circuit them -- to reverse course. Here's the Indian scientist and economist Rajendra Pachauri, who accepted the Nobel Prize on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year (and, by the way, got his job when the Bush administration, at the behest of Exxon Mobil, forced out his predecessor): "If there's no action before 2012, that's too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment."
In the next two or three years, the nations of the world are supposed to be negotiating a successor treaty to the Kyoto accord (which, for the record, has never been approved by the United States -- the only industrial nation that has failed to do so). When December 2009 rolls around, heads of state are supposed to converge on Copenhagen to sign a treaty -- a treaty that would go into effect at the last plausible moment to heed the most basic and crucial of limits on atmospheric CO2.
If we did everything right, Hansen says, we could see carbon emissions start to fall fairly rapidly and the oceans begin to pull some of that CO2 out of the atmosphere. Before the century was out, we might even be on track back to 350. We might stop just short of some of those tipping points, like the Road Runner screeching to a halt at the very edge of the cliff.
More likely, though, we're the coyote -- because "doing everything right" means that political systems around the world would have to take enormous and painful steps right away. It means no more new coal-fired power plants anywhere, and plans to quickly close the ones already in operation. (Coal-fired power plants operating the way they're supposed to are, in global warming terms, as dangerous as nuclear plants melting down.) It means making car factories turn out efficient hybrids next year, just the way U.S. automakers made them turn out tanks in six months at the start of World War II. It means making trains an absolute priority and planes a taboo.
It means making every decision wisely because we have so little time and so little money, at least relative to the task at hand. And hardest of all, it means the rich countries of the world sharing resources and technology freely with the poorest ones so that they can develop dignified lives without burning their cheap coal.
It's possible. The United States launched a Marshall Plan once, and could do it again, this time in relation to carbon. But at a time when the president has, once more, urged drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, it seems unlikely. At a time when the alluring phrase "gas tax holiday" -- which would actually encourage more driving and more energy consumption -- has danced into our vocabulary, it's hard to see. And if it's hard to imagine sacrifice here, imagine China, where people produce a quarter as much carbon apiece as Americans do.
Still, as long as it's not impossible, we've got a duty to try to push those post-Kyoto negotiations in the direction of reality. In fact, it's about the most obvious duty humans have ever faced.
After all, those talks are our last chance; you just can't do this one lightbulb at a time.
We do have one thing going for us -- the Web -- which at least allows you to imagine something like a grass-roots global effort. If the Internet was built for anything, it was built for sharing this number, for making people understand that "350" stands for a kind of safety, a kind of possibility, a kind of future.
Hansen's words were well-chosen: "a planet similar to that on which civilization developed." People will doubtless survive on a non-350 planet, but those who do will be so preoccupied, coping with the endless unintended consequences of an overheated planet, that civilization may not.
Civilization is what grows up in the margins of leisure and security provided by a workable relationship with the natural world. That margin won't exist, at least not for long, as long as we remain on the wrong side of 350. That's the limit we face.
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181 Comments so far
Show AllOne major problem with the "methane gas" issue is, people do not like to hear __ "the sky is falling". __ Most people tend to ignore those types of scary words, as it is human nature to do so and dismiss it as the rants of a "dommsayer".
Well in this instance it is not ranting by a doomsayer. That author is highly qualified to state his opinions. What is about to happen once again within a few short years, has occurred twice previously in Earth's long history and one time it was almost the end of Earth as a live water planet.
Hi ~CULICOMORPHA~ Actually we do not have to revert back to the stone age to prevent the disaster,___ not at all. In fact, we can have our cake and eat it too. We humans have the option of preventing the coming disaster or ignoring it. ___ Two options.
There is only ONE WAY to prevent it and if we take that option, we will actually have a much better life and a much cleaner atmosphere and enviroment than we presenty have and as the years go on it will only become better.
All of the World leaders MUST meet together, lay down their swords and decide to work together in peace to have totally clean energy ____ and by that I do not mean by using nuclear power.
With a world-wide massive effort to develop solar, wind, geo-thermal, wave and tidal enegy, there will be millions of good paying jobs. We will eleminate all coal burning wihtin four years time and the auto manufactures will have to develop decent electrically powered vehicles.
All of that is viable, technically possible and can be done. But ONLY if the world leaders decide it is necessary to so so. ___ Well,____it is not only necessary, it is imperative.
"The facts are that few here are willing to give up the fossil-fuel intensive suburban lifestyles, or their aversion to a car-free, walking and public transit based city living. When I moved to the city, my fossil fuel usage plummeted 500%, because I didn't need a car for daily use at all."
The Yanomamo of the central Brazilian Amazon have it on all of us, yet declaring all as lost because we aren't like them is a lost cause.
My driving a Prius does matter because it influences others. That Europe has more fuel efficient cars is great, but it does me and other USAns little good if we can't get them. We use the tools we have in the best ways we can.
I am driving much less than I used to as my commute is 50 miles a day shorter. I will be asking my employer to allow me to work 4 days a week, and will try to bike at least one of those. Living in the city may be greener, but you really don't want all of us suburbanites to move there - we put our pants on one leg at a time and some of us have dirt under our fingernails from our gardens.
Sorry for dissing the Mormons, they're scarcely more responsible for this mess than any of the rest of us. It is just that I carried away with this latest piece of insanity. And thanks for all the incredible posts everyone.
"It's that, all of a sudden, those grim Club of Rome types who, way back in the 1970s, went on and on about the "limits to growth" suddenly seem … how best to put it, right"
It's what you call a self fulfilling prophecy. They pulled the plug on nuclear power, jacked up oil prices, and made zero effort for cleaner alternative fuels. They allowed food to be taken over by agri-business cartels, and bullied nations under WTO, and credit access, to open their markets to the vulture capitalists, and thus become dependent on food imports, when previously many were self sufficient.
They allowed oil to increase in price from 20-30 dollars a barrel to 125 dollars a barrel in 7 years (doubled since last June yet gas has only went up 22% over last may), for no reason other than to make fuel too expensive for the developing world, and make them dependent on loans that will come with all kinds of strings attached.
As for global warming, yes there is global warming. But it is not man made, that is a myth. The warming thats happening is due to the Sun is hotter, even Mars is seeing it's polar ice caps shrinking. Maybe we should tell the martians to stop consuming so much oil, I mean, they are green after all.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html
Its all a hoax to get those who can not think for themselves to support globalization and population reduction, and lower standards of living which will come with reduced consumption.
Looked at another way, it is global terrorism, using food, oil, weapons (even weather) and climate change to scare you into accepting global government. Essentially they are putting a gun to Mother Earths head and saying give me global government or I will shoot. Their vision is a planet populated by no more than 600 million people. Do you really trust your government that much, let alone a global government, to determine which of you will live or die, or who can have children and who can not.
It is not that I don't care about Mother Earth. In fact, I trust Mother Earth to do what must be done to protect her health. If we are a virus, as Prince Philips considered us, and we are giving Mother Earth a fever, do you really think she has no immune system to protect herself. She will cull the herd, be it famine, virus, climate change. Let her be the judge and jury. I trust Mother Earth to cull the herd more than the neo malthusian psychopaths ruling this global pathocracy.
If it were not for these SOB's, our industry and technology would have been allowed to innovate and develop the planet in an environmentally friendly way that would easily support 20 billion. Instead, they have withheld the technology and inhibited science for over 30 years, eliminated competition and replaced it with monopoly cpaitalism, allowed the most corrupt financial system to become more corrupt to place limits on development by the greatest hoax of all, telling you that your government must borrow and tax for the money it spends, when it could just create the money needed. So today, most developing nations have better infrastructure than in the US. Our infrastructure is decaying and crumbling. Pathetic.
Yet the myth and the lie are so pervasive, that people are no longer able to see the truth.
~MiMiCS~ is another serious problem, a denyer, who writes that "man made" global warming is a myth. There are far too many of them and they cause so much damage by voicing their false opinions and those of a few "scientists" who are well paid to corrupt the issue for the benefit of oil companies.
Over a thousand decent scientists have proven beyond any doubt, that the current global warming IS without any doubt, __man made__ and it began about 200 years ago from our burning coal and oil.
Can our world leaders come together in peace to fight a battle that must be fought and won? The war against 'global warming' is a battle that we either fight and win or we ignore and lose. Again, two choices. And we do not have the luxury of debating the issue for a year two, time is short and time never stops.
Today the New York Philharmonic Orchestra will perform in North Korea. They have an opportuntiy to repair a brige that has been broken for 60 years. There is an opportunity to illustrate that we humans really are all the same and can live and work together in peace to accomplish a common and necessary goal.
We'll soon see how it turns out and see if North Korea's leader and our leaders can meet in peace. If so,____ all of the world leaders can.
Actual photo of your Mom cutting the cheese! Worse, a scientist lights the gaseous emission on fire. Wildly obscene! An environmental must-see.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071025174618.htm
"As for global warming, yes there is global warming. But it is not man made, that is a myth. The warming thats happening is due to the Sun is hotter, even Mars is seeing it's polar ice caps shrinking."
MiMiCcS,
Due to your post, I did a little research. In a nutshell, what I found is that you are correct - the sun plays a role in global warming. However, the role it plays is minor. The major role is in greenhouse gases that trap the solar radiation. The sun has little to do with the greenhouse gases on Earth. So, something else has raised these gases here at a very high rate that is trapping solar radiation and warming things up.
Maybe you're right. Maybe it is the Martians.
http://www.dukenews.duke.edu/2005/09/sunwarm.html
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11650
Hi there ~WTF~ You ask, "Can we collect and burn the methane gas?" ___Yes indeed we certainly can. We already do in some old garbage dumps and landfills on Staten Island for one example.
However, if we started burning the methane gas in the Arcitc, it would take about four billion years to burn it all. It wouldn't help the global warming situation anyway.
We have to attempt to reverse, or at the very least slow down the Co2 going up into our atmosphere and stop burnng coal is the first major step. If we stopped burnng all gasoline and diesel fuel world-wide today, that would not do enough to help. We need to develop totally clean energy first and then start working on the other serious problems.
You choose.
Empire
Or
Earth Community.
Here are some facts to help support your choice.
Use any the following to copy, paste, print and hand out to people you don't kow. Inline at the post office, at the supermarket, in the gas lines. (Make smaller and use less paper!)
ENERGY
China ranks second in production of solar cells, Japan is third, USA is fourth
Coal-fired power plants are the single largest source of man-made CO2, accounting for one quarter to one third of the world's total
Americans now spend $200,000 a minute on foreign oil, and more than $25 billion annually goes to Persian Gulf states for oil imports
Every one-cent increase in the price of gas costs American consumers approximately $1 billion
As of October 24,2006 the average gallon of gas was $2.60--a 78 percent increase since Bush was inaugurated in 2001
Exxon Mobil makes 1 billion a day in revenue
America has only 2 percent of the world's known oil reserves, we produce 8 percent and consume 25 percent of the oil
Forty percent of the world's oil is shipped through the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf
WAR
More than half of every dollar 54 cents exactly now goes to support the military machine
Defense-related spending for fiscal 2008 will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in history.
The U.S. has become the largest single seller of arms and munitions to other nations on Earth.
ECONOMICS
There are approximately 114 million households in the U.S. today.
The top 1 percent make up 1.4 million households.
The top 1 percent today hold more than 35 percent of all assets and wealth of the country.
As compared to the bottom 50 percent of all households, nearly 60 million families—all working class— who own 2.5 percent of the country's total assets and wealth.
The top 1 percent own 51 percent of all stocks and 70 percent of all bonds, and own homes worth more than $3 million.
The top 1 percent now receive between 19-21.5 percent of the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States
In the past three years, corporate profits have increased more than 60%. Workers are being paid just 3% more.
****Only 6.5 percent of U.S. workers overall earn more than $100,000 a year
Corporations used to pay 60% of the taxes collected 60 years ago. Now they pay 16%.
Health care costs increased 60 % in last five years
Average families using heating oil or natural gas will pay nearly three times the amount paid in 2001.
Thirty years ago less than five percent of home sales were for second or third homes owned by one person. Now it is over 30%. First time house buyers are getting more rare as home sales soared to the investor class who will now rent to those who would have purchased if they could've and those who tried are now back to paying the equity for the investor class.
Kem I went to the link you put up and yeah it scared the crap out of me. My only defense against that paralyzing terror is another link:
PLAN B is a path to a solution. It's comprehensive. It's a rallying point.
Check it out. Print it, roll it in a tube and jam it up your local representative's agenda.
http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PlanB_contents.htm
NO ~YOUAREYOURSLF~. ~MiMiCcS~ is NOT correct that the global warmng is not man made and that is a myth. It definently is man made. And you are correct that the "Greenhouse effect" is the problem. That "greenhouse" effect began in ernest 200 years ago at the beginning of man's industrial revolution.
We began using fossil fuels and oil to produce power. Every bit we burn is still partially there in our atmosphere. We may breath air today that contains Co2 produced by Henry Ford's first model T, or the coal fired boilers of the Merrimack and Monitor. We must stop it.
KEM: I hear the power of your heart speaking in its love for humanity... I wonder if global leaders know about or understand this methane thing? Sure it's sexier to attend summits and act like the age-old issues of poverty, hunger, war and despair are actually being worked on then take ACTION to face and ensure long-term human sustainability.
We know that most of American leadership is sold-out to its fiscal sponsors, but other nations (given the tragedy in Burma this week) surely recognize the CALL to take immediate action? Sadly, the world needs the US and China to do their part for certainly these zones are major offenders.
I wonder if someone like George Soros who tends to fund progressive caues knows about this? Obviously the wealth of elite persons won't mean shit to a tree if things get as bad as some scientists presume. I mentioned when this topic came up before that perhaps Krakatoa would blow and cover the world in ashes thus creating a block in the upper atmospheres that wards off the sun's warming effect. Something could happen to aid mankind. I say this on account of my innate optimism, and yet what haunts me are the archaeological imprints of societies like Pompei that were essentially erased in less than a day.
Does anyone, including the author, believe that humans will cooperate to reduce our consumption to bring CO2 within "livable" levels?
Look at our "democratic" society. Is there cooperation between the political parties? No.
Look at the war the USA is in for control of oil. Any cooperation for the common good there? No.
Charge it, use it and fuck it, we are toast.
Recently the Cumberland Times-News (Cumberland, MD) printed an editorial page article from some guy stating that the earth is COOLING, not heating up. Apparently there's ONE Canadian scientist who believes this, so a local guy sent in the letter presenting this hypothesis as established fact and the local Republican newspaper (owned by a Birmingham, AL corporation) printed it. Around here they're arguing that modern coal-fired power plants are "clean" and that proposed wind turbines lower property values and destroy the pristine mountain environment. This newspaper also recently published an article stating that growing corn for ethanol is not related to rising food prices. It's a stinking, lying, day-after-day publication of right-wing propaganda and its fascist owners and editors deserve to be hanged.
I do sincerely appreciate the nice things you say to me ~Siouxrose~, but it really is not about me, or you, or any of us individually. It's about all of us humans combined and especially our children and their children.
And let us never forget the wildlife and the flower and fauna on this water world we have named "Earth". Earth is the only water world known to exist in the entire universe and we are literally killing it. Coud say "obliterate", ____ but don't want to start anything over word usage.
You asked, Do any people, leaders or those with a great deal of influence know about the (Arctic methane gas) issue?
I don't know ~SUE~, but they damn sure should know and the more who do know and accept it is a fact, the more chance there is they will hear of it.
For MiMi......
The radiation output of the Sun does fluctuate over the course of its 11-year solar cycle. But the change is only about one-tenth of 1 percent—not substantial enough to affect Earth's climate in dramatic ways, and certainly not enough to be the sole culprit of our planet's current warming trend.
"The small measured changes in solar output and variations from one decade to the next are only on the order of a fraction of a percent, and if you do the calculations not even large enough to really provide a detectable signal in the surface temperature record," said Penn State meteorologist Michael Mann.
"Solar activity continues to be one of the last bastions of contrarians," Mann said. "People who don't accept the existence of anthropogenic climate change still try to point to solar activity."
For more salient points please reference the 1999 study conducted by Judith Lean and David Rind, solar radiation experts. It will relieve you of your misinformation.
Had Al Gore taken office in 2001 and the Democrats controlled Congress, I am sure we would have made at least a few small steps toward solving this problem. Had we invested a fraction of what we've spent on the wars on alternative energy, we'd be far ahead of where we now are. It's been the malign influence of the conservatives, especially the envangelicals and right-wing Zionists, who have brought us their version of moral governance: environmental destruction, brutal warmongering, war profiteering, torture, illegal spying on citizens, repudiation of the Geneva Conventions, destruction of constitutional balance of powers, suppression of science and tax breaks for the rich with massive deficit spending.
You are correct ~MIFTIN~. Getta rope.
Maplefudge,
need to look at Plan B closer but I think I will take your advice. My senator is Bill Nelson. Think he'll enjoy it?
SiouxRose,
Oh they know about methane alright. They just don't want to do anything about it. Not only is the permafrost melting escaping methane but there has also been alot more action with the methane hydrates on the sea floor.
For all ohers and thanks for the posts, you guys are great.......
Do yourselves a favor. Read this book. "Under a Green Sky" by Peter Ward. It will let you know just how close we are to extinction.
"If it were not for these SOB's, our industry and technology would have been allowed to innovate and develop the planet in an environmentally friendly way that would easily support 20 billion. Instead, they have withheld the technology and inhibited science for over 30 years, eliminated competition and replaced it with monopoly cpaitalism, allowed the most corrupt financial system to become more corrupt to place limits on development by the greatest hoax of all, telling you that your government must borrow and tax for the money it spends, when it could just create the money needed."
I think ALL valid challenges to the eco model that supports widespread genocide and totalitarianism are under attack.
Life-saving understandings/ideas and technologies (such as humans are NOT omnivores but rather herbivores) are withheld from the mainstream.
A little over ten years ago, I was working with a man on a new fuel cell retro-fit design for cars. He had previously designed the fuel cell for the Gemini space program and also held over 300 patents.
His partner would joke about his continuing to fly small planes... that he should not fly until the project completed (and this partner had realized his financial return).
And sure enough, his plane inexplicably went down one sunny afternoon over Half Moon Bay, CA on his return flight only minutes after he left the local airport.
Coincidence? NOT LIKELY!
My own efforts to launch any number of alternative businesses and projects have met with concerted efforts to block them by government agents, established businesses/corporations and undercover operators.
This is the problem. It is the reason for the problem in the first place and the force that is preventing solutions, real solutions from being implemented.
And the following, in my opinion is completely true:
"Looked at another way, it is global terrorism, using food, oil, weapons (even weather) and climate change to scare you into accepting global government. Essentially they are putting a gun to Mother Earths head and saying give me global government or I will shoot. Their vision is a planet populated by no more than 600 million people. Do you really trust your government that much, let alone a global government, to determine which of you will live or die, or who can have children and who can not."
Beware the solution that those who have created the problem are planning to implement.
BTW, world-wide government is a fait accompli, has been for a few centuries at least... keeping the myth of states of divergent interests alive is simply a ruse to forestall developments not perceived as of interest to the ruling elite's control paradigms.
Genocide is a present day fact as well. It is ongoing at all times. It is likely that it will be stepped up increasingly over the next few years but we are already in an extremely aggressive phase especially if one considers animals other than the human monkey… and genocides are generally quite destructive to the eco systems in which they are unfolding as well. The rainforest is burning 24/7 and the air over Argentina is a strange color of orange… permanently.
I remember video of a woman of the Kiribati atoll (I believe it was), talking about how their roads were increasingly being swept away by the rising tides. And the newsman asked her: where will you go, what will you do? And her reply: I think I'll just stay here: if my island disappears, I'll have to go with it.
She had a brave, outward-jutting-jaw, approach to her fate. But, increasingly, I've begun to realize: they really WILL let her and her island die. It's nothing personal.
It's just business.
miftin May 11th, 2008 10:02 pm -- "Recently the Cumberland Times-News (Cumberland, MD) printed an editorial page article from some guy stating that the earth is COOLING, not heating up. Apparently there's ONE Canadian scientist who believes this, ..."
Gee, I didn't realise that Canada was graduating "scientists" at such a young age that they haven't been outside to experience the situation for themselves. I suppose his mommy probably wouldn't allow him to travel to Churchill, Manitoba or any other polar bear region to watch them searching for some arctic ice on which to hunt seals.
Siouxrose and Kem Patrick--interesting dialog. Reading the clearly thought out ideas of people like Bill McKibben and then listening to all the "leadership" on whom we must depend for implementation blopviate is really depressing.
It reminds me of a repeating dream of a slow-motion head-on collision between a train and yourself in a car that cannot be changed, stopped, or made to go a way. Humanity is collectively going insane and none moreso than its
"leadership".
Last month some Russian scientists were in the Arctic and discovered several large lakes which had been totally ice bound for millions of years were now open water. The surface water of the lakes were broling with escaping methane gas. It scared the crap out of them.___ As it should have.
We can have a MASSIVE effort to develop clean energy, the technology is already well proven. We have already spent trilion$ just waging a war in Iraq, an unjust and totally unnecessary war we are all aware. That type of money can be used to initiate and develop clean energy and stop burning coal world-wide.
A few examples of a MASSIVE effort. ___WW-2. Not to indicate WW-2 was necessary, only to illustrate what humanity can do within four years if they deem it a necessity.
Here in America, from 1941 thru 1945, a few of the "Mega Projects" we sucessfully accomplished. ___ The "Big Inch", a 40 inch oil pipelne which ran from Texas to New Jersey, over hill and dale, across mighty rivers, through swamp-land and forests and was buried deep in the ground. One year and it was open and running and it worked. __ It still does.
The "Manhatten Project", the largest and most expensive project ever started and finished by mankind, ___three and and a half years and it worked also. ___ Still does.__ Unfortunantly.
Actually the Manhatten Project gets the silver medal, the largest and most expensive was "Boeing's B-29" bomber development and deployment to war. That near three year operation was a larger and more expensive program than the Manhatten project.
The "Alcon Highway", an "impossible" task. (One year) and a very rough road running all the way up Alaska opened, but it opened and it worked and now it's a decent and important highway.
In addition, we built millions of vehicles, tanks, ships, aircraft of all types, cannons, weapons and munitions. We trained millions of men and women, we clothed and fed them. It was a massive effort and we didn't lower our living standards by doing it.
Oh sure, we rationed shoes, sugar and gas, tires and cigarettes, nylons and condoms. But we helped to fight and to win a war and we sure didn't suffer here at home.
There were millions of good jobs and the same thing could happen with a war against Global Warming and we wouldn't have to shoot at each other or drop bombs and "oblitere" anyone.
We could have our pancakes and "Maple" sugar and syrup while we fought it also.
KEM PATRICK - was it last year that people in NYC and NJ complained about the terrible smell that overwhelmed the area? The search was on for a gas leak, but so far as I know ocean-source methane was never considered. Is it 28x more potent as a greenhouse gas? Something ridiculous like that, very potent...
If it were possible to examine all the patents hidden away under USC35-181, the national security patent secrecy law, one would discover 4-5 thousand inventions, many of them dealing with alternative energy generation devices. Tesla's radiant energy, electro-gravitic, over-unity machines tapping the quantum vacuum, alternative energy concepts generally unknown to the public that is fixated on solar, wind, biomass,that can't solve the problem.
The petro-Nazis have effectively suppressed high mileage devices, from simple vaporization systems that would allow huge increases in efficiency to gas vehicles, to "water powered" cars ( Brown's gas ) in the name of trapping us in the petroleum prison to perpetuate their global dominance.
McKibbon doesn't appear to know about true alternative energy and it is simply impossible to achieve co2 reductions that we must have without it.
We do not truly have an energy crisis, we have an identity crisis. The understanding we have of ourselves prevents us from seeing our world in a different way, which is what is called for at this critical moment. We see ourselves as competitors in a world of scarcity instead of recognizing that we are cooperative beings in a world of unlimited energy. This is not your usual MLM bullshit, this is the fact of life
the universe is a perpetual motion machine. There are devices in existence, "over unity" devices, that output more energy than is input, that are in fact, perpetual motion machines producing no pollution whatever and capable of powering human civilization at no cost other than the cost of producing such machines for mass consumption.
The fact that people like McKibbon who are intent upon warning the world of imminent disaster, are unaware of true alternative energy makes one thing certain: we will not escape the global calamity. The hope is, however, that this calamity will shock us into a profound identity crisis, that this real alternative energy will see the light of day, and we will permanently solve the non-existent energy crisis or return to the stone age....
"We could have our pancakes and "Maple" sugar and syrup while we fought it also."
You are so right...
Recipe:
2 cups organic whole wheat pastry flour
1 Tablespoon non-aluminum baking powder
1/4 teaspoon salt
21/4 cups soy milk
Sift dry ingredients into large mixing bowl. Whisk soy milk until frothy and pour into dry ingredients. Stir all ingredients until mixed. Do not over mix.
Pour some organic canola oil into pan. Heat to medium high. Ladle batter into pan for one large or three small pancakes. Turn pancake(s)once when the top(s) bubbles.
Serve with Earth Balance Organic spread and organic maple syrup.
Can also be served with fresh fruit, Gimme Lean sausage also fried in organic canola oil (I add a little dried basil, red chili flakes and dried oregano to the oil) until brown on both sides, and/or Tofu Scrambler.
(pancake recipe from Lindsay Wagner's vegan cookbook... the BEST pancakes on the planet, guaranteed!)
Thank you, cruxpuppy. I truly wish everyone could take note of what you are saying.
Almost two years ago, I met with someone who was involved with the Smart Cars. He started to tell me about batteries being a limiting technology for electric cars...
But when I corrected him and told him about research I had read over two decades earlier, he confessed that his partner had just returned from China where he was shown the factory where the US military was having batteries produced secretly that were far more efficient than any the public was being told were even technologically feasible!
~Kem Patrick~
I have read your link, you have posted this before.. Continue, so many are just not aware of the threat that "methane burps" pose to all of us.
I recently saw a clip on a fissure off the California coast releasing large amounts of methane... And this is just the tip of the ice burg. Scary stuff but all true people.
I wish every human on earth would read it ~Clubconnector~.
Yeah, the methane hydrates on the ocean's floor beds are only stable if under both (water pressure and cold water temperatures). Take away either of the two and the trapped methane WILL release.___ Billions of tons of it. That is in addition to the methane in the Arctic's perma-frost.
Two months ago, because of global warming, that some wizards deny is a problem, one of the largest ice shelfs in Anarctica broke off and is now melting away in the Pacific ocean. That is far more serious than just some melting ice. ___ Here's why:
The cold water beneath that mile thick ice flowed
northward deep beneath the Pacific's waves n to the Arctic and then turned and flowed southward as it slowly warmed. That huge undersea river was similar to the warm water Gulf Stream in the Atlantic ocean. Both are very importnat for our climate.
That cold water insured the methane hydrates on the ocean floor beds stayed stable. That cold water river is now not as cold or flowing northward in as great of volumn as it had for millions of years. It was also the breeding ground for the ocean's phytoplankton. Without suffecient phytoplankton, we slowly but surely lose our normal supply of fresh oxygen in the atmosphere.
Funny how a microscopic sized, water floating plant, is so vital for life on a water planet. Here's an interesting one minute read.
http://whyplankton.com
As we speak the rwing ridicule Al Gore.
The sad thing is millions believe Gore
detrators.
What good it does,when millions refuse to
take action,on top of the millions
that do nothing,because do not have
a clue of what is going on.
The illiterate that are burning
the jungles of the Amazon,Asia
and Africa do know a thing about
what will happen.So its hopeless.
Well ~PRESENCE~ If this is God's plan to destroy the planet by fire, as it reads in the Holy Bible that God promised to do the next time. Then that's the plan and we just have to accept it. For if enough methane gas enters our atmosphere, it could eaily ignite and burn the whole place down.___ Or up, same thing actually, ____ 'obliterated'. Neat word there huh?
But, it may be God's plan that he'd much rather see if we will get our shit together and attempt to fight the global warming issue and insure the methane gas stays locked up in the ice where it won't kill everybody and everything.
Now you see ~Presence~, you and I write differently here and I don't have the training necessary to go off with a lot of wording that I can't readily comprehend. So I'll end this here comment with the following paragraph.
If any here think the global warming issue is a bunch of bullshit and it isn't our very most serious issue,____ bar none, you're a damn fool and you better read this here three minute read link I'll bother to post again before you write some stupid shit about it.
http://www.energybulletin.net/3647.html
P/S ___ Welcome back ~Nam~. Missed ya.
Presence… the models may be flawed because as you say, the climate experts may not know all the variables…
That could well be why the biggest flaw that you can actually find in the models, which have been startlingly accurate in most areas, is that they have failed to get the time scale right. They have always given us much more time than we probably have. Changes are occurring much faster than predicted.
So, instead of prattling on, throwing doubt on the size, density or colour of the iceberg, you might like to suggest how to keep the Titanic afloat.. at least until it can limp into port somewhere…
It has occurred to me on a number of occasions that what we have to do is construct (in as energy neutral way as possible, likely solar) massive, truly massive numbers of truly massive heat pumps in series.
The final output to generate the power required to synthesis an inert hydrocarbon from CO2 scrubbed out of the atmosphere.
This inert hydrocarbon to be injected back down redundant oil wells..
This way we lock up carbon and "thermal energy".
In the meantime, we can see an expansion of solar, wind, wave and possible Bussard generators, with oil used solely as a chemical feedstock (if plant (hemp) and other products can't be utilised.
Anybody got any comments??
Damn it... Presence… the models may be flawed..
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from 'a world without us' by alan weisman:
if too much of the permafrost itself is undone, it would thaw deeply buried ice that forms crystalline cages round methane molecules. an estimated 400 billion tons of these frozen methane deposits, lie a few thousand feet beneath the tundra and even more are found beneath the world's oceans. becasue it's so dispersed no-one has come up with an economical way to mine it. because there's so much of it, if it all floats away once the ice cages melt, that much methane might ratchet global warming to levels unknown since the permian extinction, 250 million years ago.
i wonder how long we have left.......................
To Global Warming Deniers:
It is true that Mars is warming, but the Martians are DOING something about it.
1 They are riding bicycles instead of driving cars.
2 They have achieved Zero Population growth.
3 They have all become vegans.
4 The President of The Grand Martian Hegemony has appended a signing statement to the Second Law of Thermodynamics voiding Entropy.
Thank you for mentioning Martian Warming. It is the best argument for the necessity of combatting Earth warming.
/s/ Pundit, Space Tourist
I know a bit about methane gas, too. Shocking, I know. Like you, I am a big fan of the "learning" channels - specifically Discovery. I watched a show about the Bermuda Triangle and how they attribute the random lost ships and planes within the Bermuda Triangle to it being a region with lots of methane gas buildup. When the methane gas bubble rise to the water surface and into the sky it distorts the boats ability to float and the planes ability to fly. It also explains why most missing ships and planes from the Bermuda Triangle didn't use distress signals - it happens too fast! A boat can literally sink within minutes, same with the plane - it's immediate. Well, there's some more interesting methane gas knowledge for ya.
in the most unscientific way I can gather from the hour-long show: methane may build up at the bottom of the ocean due to dying organisms or something like that, and become increasingly agitated in stiller water. The methane would rise up through the water and bubble up at the top turning to gas. Normally methane, as a gas lighter than air, would rise up into the atmosphere, no questions asked. But, the oxygen from the ocean would keep the gas close to the water, and it would create large pockets of gas that would join together through a domino effect.
Soon enough this would cause massive tsunamis along all the coastlines, turning cities upside down, wiping out buildings and people. Water levels would rise throughout the world and cities like New York would go under. But wait, that's not the bad part! Remember those oceanic methane gas bubbles? Well, let's say one of them caught fire via lightning or something, it would cause a fireball to ripple throughout the ocean, eventually burning cities and towns to the ground, and setting peoples' hair on fire. Conclusion…most of the world would be dead, with parts of the world barely surviving, and hair everywhere would be scorched.
Funnily enough, if you tweaked the classic answer to the question, "What's the best way to lose weight?," you'd have the answer to the global warming problem:
Exercise more (and drive less) and eat less (meat, that is).
Kem, Coco and Presence in particular.
PLEASE read "under a Green Sky" by Peter Ward.
Trust me you will really find it an interesting read and a compelling one, enough so that you will want to do even more than you can to stop the Silver Bullet from crashing into Grand Central.
Rocks do not lie and 250 million years ago is being quickly repeated. It speaks to the phytoplankton, the methane, the isoptope counts and what we have in store for us if we don't begin to rein in our excesses.
I say we have ten years at the outside.
AlexLawyer May 11th, 2008 10:09 pm
"Had Al Gore taken office in 2001 and the Democrats controlled Congress, I am sure we would have made at least a few small steps toward solving this problem. Had we invested a fraction of what we've spent on the wars on alternative energy, we'd be far ahead of where we now are."
Alex,
Had we done many things we may have averted some of what we're heading into. Unfortunately, we didn't. So, that leaves the ever-present question: What are we going to do about it?
Things are the way they are. Hopefully, if we wind up with a Democratic president and a Democratic Congress, things will start to change. I'm sure some things will, but I'm not getting my hopes too high.
I remember an old Talking Heads song. It was lamenting the fact that shit happens yet citizens do nothing. The refrain went, "Yeah, so what are you going to do about it?"
So, what are you going to do about it?
Mother Nature will survive. The planet will survive. The American Empire will not. Millions of people will not. And there is nothing to be done about it because people will not change.
coco,
Also by Alan Weisman: Gaviotas: A Village to Reinvent the World.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaviotas
http://www.amazon.com/Gaviotas-Village-Reinvent-Alan-Weisman/dp/1890132284
The plea is authentic. The context right on! THe problem is that the American people lack little resolve to take on the pain required to impact the problem. When the two major political candidates in the Dem Party are advocating for Bio Fuels, Nuclear, and driving gass guzzlers, a demonstration that they JUST DON'T GET IT! Like most of the people on CD, present author excluded. He does get it.
"NO ~YOUAREYOURSLF~. ~MiMiCcS~ is NOT correct that the global warmng is not man made and that is a myth. It definently is man made. And you are correct that the "Greenhouse effect" is the problem."
I'm just recognizing the fact that there may be other variables, Kem. I'm in no way denying the human cause.
I realize that many people refuse to see the cause and effect relationship. Such people do nothing to advance solutions. They also consistently destroy their credibility.
ALEX LAWYER: In other words brought us PREMEDITATED MURDER on a grand and grotesque scale. Ironic isn't it, that these types claim the religious high ground when theirs is an allegiance to the god of death, destruction and depravity (known to the ancients as Mars, who laid claim to the first born sons).
CIVIL BEHAVIOUR, IAMMYSELF, KEM, LIPO, ET AL
thank you for all the book references. i haven't read it yet, but another one is 'global warning - the last chance for change' by paul brown. it's a big book with lots of pictures and interesting facts. and as good as these books are, reading about our problems only saddens me more. because as LIPO says, people will not change. (well, the posters here excepted)
i admire all the efforts we are making to bring about awareness and change, but whenever i mention our challenges to others, i'm usually met with ridicule and distain.
the chapter in 'a world without us' regarding the disappearance of the mayan civilisation smacks heavily of what is going on world-wide in present times. at least then, they didn't have nuclear power or weapons, that in my opinion are the two most dastardley inventions. and the worst legacy we leave to any future life after we have 'obliterated' ourselves.........since 1950 no less than 2050 nuclear weapons tests have been performed on earth. and guess who topped the list with just under half that figure..............
I'm not sure whose post mentioned what our leaders need to do right away for us to have a chance to beat this thing. The problem with this idea is something I currently see as being at the root of all our human problems--a dynamic which sees to it that power and wisdom repel each other. That is, the wisest among us are least likely to be in positions of power; the people we name as our official leaders are usually the least wise among us. Wisdom is essentially a matter of seeing far, both geographically and temporally, and thus overcoming the illusion that "me and my little club over here" are more important, more alive, than other people over there, or other species, or people who will be born 187 years from now. The least wise are the most short-sighted--those who believe that making the most money and obtainbing the most privileges for me and my family, right now, are the bottom line, the thing that matters. Suchg people are motivated to fight for wealth and power, which in our society are nearly interchangable--if you have wealth you can easily get power and if you have power it's easy to direct wealth your way. "Climbing the ladder" is an apt metaphor for this world-view, and the closer you get to the top the more violent the competition. Scruples are a big handicap. So the very top levels are populated only by sociopaths, those who have no conscience at all. Most of the US Congress is composed of such people, and this is true of most of the rest of the world as well. Jimmy Carter shows signs of having a conscience, and I have wondered at times if his election was a "mistake" from the point of view of the ruling class--but when he was President, the revolutions in Central America were ruthlessly crushed. Obama is interesting because he suggests at times he may not be a sociopath but it's hard to tell. No mystery about the Clintons or McCain. Anyway, my point here is that we have a SYSTEM that guarantees that we CAN'T get the kind of leadership that can save us, not through the official channels anyway.
Webwalker says we therefore need to focus on individual action and wants pledges. Some criticized him/her for building a concrete (presumably) cistern, asking how that would help global warming. Yes, concrete has high embodied energy, but one who endeavors to achieve personal and communal independence (not only to reduce participation in generating greenhouse gases, presumably, but also to be prepared to transition to the post-petroleum world we are about to find ourselves in) must find ways to solve problems without a continuing need for fossil fuel imports. For example, setting up a rainwater collection system instead of relying on a pump, especially in a dry place like NM, makes great sense. In the long run, the use of concrete for a cistern may well be a good choice.
I have increased my GHG in one particular, by buying a six-cylinder truck that gets 12 to 19 MPG--for years I've used a Ford Aspire that gets 43 MPG. But this was a necessity for building a house--one which we are designing to use no more than a cord of firewood to heat, no air conditioning, and we will power it with solar panels (my man thinks we may be able to use wind too but I'm not so sure--WV is not that windy except along the high mountains on the VA border). I am researching green manure crops so I can start next year to do major gardening--I'll also have to build a coop for chickens and ducks and goats are a possibility. Some of these projects involve a temporary increase in GHG emissions, in order to establish us in a situation in which we can be nearly entirely free of GHG use (and maybe then we'll sell the truck).
But I also feel I must keep working for political change, however thin the hope. Here, that means working actively to choke the life out of attempts to build coal-to-liquids plants. Stopping mountaintop-removal mining is nearly impossible, it's so entrenched--stopping plants which are only projected is a real possibility. It isn't easy to find time for this, though, while building a house (doing all the work ourselves).
Incidentally, someone else mentioned the virtues of city life and how much less fossil fuel s/he uses now, relying on public transportation. True--but don't forget, food and other necessities are being trucked to you from the country. Smaller towns are probably more viable post-petroleum than huge cities.
rtdrury asked: what's the material you used in your cistern?
I used environmentally unfriendly concrete, topped with wooden joists and a galvanized steel roof. The concrete had to be hauled up 3,000' from town, so yes, mea kulpa, even this "pro-active" exercise had a considerable environmental impact.
MiMiCcS, wrote: The warming thats happening is due to the Sun is hotter, even Mars is seeing it's polar ice caps shrinking.
This is a main argument of the denialists, and has been thoroughly debunked. The data indicating that the sun is "warming" was not calibrated and did not take into account the 11-year sun-spot cycle. The use of this data caused other researches to erroneously claim that Neptune is warming.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm