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The End of the World As You Know It … and the Rise of the New Energy World Order
Oil at $110 a barrel. Gasoline at $3.35 (or more) per gallon. Diesel fuel at $4 per gallon. Independent truckers forced off the road. Home heating oil rising to unconscionable price levels. Jet fuel so expensive that three low-cost airlines stopped flying in the past few weeks. This is just a taste of the latest energy news, signaling a profound change in how all of us, in this country and around the world, are going to live -- trends that, so far as anyone can predict, will only become more pronounced as energy supplies dwindle and the global struggle over their allocation intensifies.
Energy of all sorts was once hugely abundant, making possible the worldwide economic expansion of the past six decades. This expansion benefited the United States above all -- along with its "First World" allies in Europe and the Pacific. Recently, however, a select group of former "Third World" countries -- China and India in particular -- have sought to participate in this energy bonanza by industrializing their economies and selling a wide range of goods to international markets. This, in turn, has led to an unprecedented spurt in global energy consumption -- a 47% rise in the past 20 years alone, according to the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE).
An increase of this sort would not be a matter of deep anxiety if the world's primary energy suppliers were capable of producing the needed additional fuels. Instead, we face a frightening reality: a marked slowdown in the expansion of global energy supplies just as demand rises precipitously. These supplies are not exactly disappearing -- though that will occur sooner or later -- but they are not growing fast enough to satisfy soaring global demand.
The combination of rising demand, the emergence of powerful new energy consumers, and the contraction of the global energy supply is demolishing the energy-abundant world we are familiar with and creating in its place a new world order. Think of it as: rising powers/shrinking planet.
This new world order will be characterized by fierce international competition for dwindling stocks of oil, natural gas, coal, and uranium, as well as by a tidal shift in power and wealth from energy-deficit states like China, Japan, and the United States to energy-surplus states like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. In the process, the lives of everyone will be affected in one way or another -- with poor and middle-class consumers in the energy-deficit states experiencing the harshest effects. That's most of us and our children, in case you hadn't quite taken it in.
Here, in a nutshell, are five key forces in this new world order which will change our planet:
1. Intense competition between older and newer economic powers for available supplies of energy: Until very recently, the mature industrial powers of Europe, Asia, and North America consumed the lion's share of energy and left the dregs for the developing world. As recently as 1990, the members of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the club of the world's richest nations, consumed approximately 57% of world energy; the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact bloc, 14% percent; and only 29% was left to the developing world. But that ratio is changing: With strong economic growth in the developing countries, a greater proportion of the world's energy is being consumed by them. By 2010, the developing world's share of energy use is expected to reach 40% and, if current trends persist, 47% by 2030.
China plays a critical role in all this. The Chinese alone are projected to consume 17% of world energy by 2015, and 20% by 2025 -- by which time, if trend lines continue, it will have overtaken the United States as the world's leading energy consumer. India, which, in 2004, accounted for 3.4% of world energy use, is projected to reach 4.4% percent by 2025, while consumption in other rapidly industrializing nations like Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Turkey is expected to grow as well.
These rising economic dynamos will have to compete with the mature economic powers for access to remaining untapped reserves of exportable energy -- in many cases, bought up long ago by the private energy firms of the mature powers like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, Total of France, and Royal Dutch Shell. Of necessity, the new contenders have developed a potent strategy for competing with the Western "majors": they've created state-owned companies of their own and fashioned strategic alliances with the national oil companies that now control oil and gas reserves in many of the major energy-producing nations.
China's Sinopec, for example, has established a strategic alliance with Saudi Aramco, the nationalized giant once owned by Chevron and Exxon Mobil, to explore for natural gas in Saudi Arabia and market Saudi crude oil in China. Likewise, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will collaborate with Gazprom, the massive state-controlled Russian natural gas monopoly, to build pipelines and deliver Russian gas to China. Several of these state-owned firms, including CNPC and India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, are now set to collaborate with Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. in developing the extra-heavy crude of the Orinoco belt once controlled by Chevron. In this new stage of energy competition, the advantages long enjoyed by Western energy majors has been eroded by vigorous, state-backed upstarts from the developing world.
2. The insufficiency of primary energy supplies: The capacity of the global energy industry to satisfy demand is shrinking. By all accounts, the global supply of oil will expand for perhaps another half-decade before reaching a peak and beginning to decline, while supplies of natural gas, coal, and uranium will probably grow for another decade or two before peaking and commencing their own inevitable declines. In the meantime, global supplies of these existing fuels will prove incapable of reaching the elevated levels demanded.
Take oil. The U.S. Department of Energy claims that world oil demand, expected to reach 117.6 million barrels per day in 2030, will be matched by a supply that -- miracle of miracles -- will hit exactly 117.7 million barrels (including petroleum liquids derived from allied substances like natural gas and Canadian tar sands) at the same time. Most energy professionals, however, consider this estimate highly unrealistic. "One hundred million barrels is now in my view an optimistic case," the CEO of Total, Christophe de Margerie, typically told a London oil conference in October 2007. "It is not my view; it is the industry view, or the view of those who like to speak clearly, honestly, and [are] not just trying to please people."
Similarly, the authors of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report, published in July 2007 by the International Energy Agency, an affiliate of the OECD, concluded that world oil output might hit 96 million barrels per day by 2012, but was unlikely to go much beyond that as a dearth of new discoveries made future growth impossible.
Daily business-page headlines point to a vortex of clashing trends: worldwide demand will continue to grow as hundred of millions of newly-affluent Chinese and Indian consumers line up to purchase their first automobile (some selling for as little as $2,500); key older "elephant" oil fields like Ghawar in Saudi Arabia and Canterell in Mexico are already in decline or expected to be so soon; and the rate of new oil-field discoveries plunges year after year. So expect global energy shortages and high prices to be a constant source of hardship.
3. The painfully slow development of energy alternatives: It has long been evident to policymakers that new sources of energy are desperately needed to compensate for the eventual disappearance of existing fuels as well as to slow the buildup of climate-changing "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. In fact, wind and solar power have gained significant footholds in some parts of the world. A number of other innovative energy solutions have already been developed and even tested out in university and corporate laboratories. But these alternatives, which now contribute only a tiny percentage of the world's net fuel supply, are simply not being developed fast enough to avert the multifaceted global energy catastrophe that lies ahead.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, renewable fuels, including wind, solar, and hydropower (along with "traditional" fuels like firewood and dung), supplied but 7.4% of global energy in 2004; biofuels added another 0.3%. Meanwhile, fossil fuels -- oil, coal, and natural gas -- supplied 86% percent of world energy, nuclear power another 6%. Based on current rates of development and investment, the DoE offers the following dismal projection: In 2030, fossil fuels will still account for exactly the same share of world energy as in 2004. The expected increase in renewables and biofuels is so slight -- a mere 8.1% -- as to be virtually meaningless.
In global warming terms, the implications are nothing short of catastrophic: Rising reliance on coal (especially in China, India, and the United States) means that global emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to rise by 59% over the next quarter-century, from 26.9 billion metric tons to 42.9 billion tons. The meaning of this is simple. If these figures hold, there is no hope of averting the worst effects of climate change.
When it comes to global energy supplies, the implications are nearly as dire. To meet soaring energy demand, we would need a massive influx of alternative fuels, which would mean equally massive investment -- in the trillions of dollars -- to ensure that the newest possibilities move rapidly from laboratory to full-scale commercial production; but that, sad to say, is not in the cards. Instead, the major energy firms (backed by lavish U.S. government subsidies and tax breaks) are putting their mega-windfall profits from rising energy prices into vastly expensive (and environmentally questionable) schemes to extract oil and gas from Alaska and the Arctic, or to drill in the deep and difficult waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. The result? A few more barrels of oil or cubic feet of natural gas at exorbitant prices (with accompanying ecological damage), while non-petroleum alternatives limp along pitifully.
4. A steady migration of power and wealth from energy-deficit to energy-surplus nations: There are few countries -- perhaps a dozen altogether -- with enough oil, gas, coal, and uranium (or some combination thereof) to meet their own energy needs and provide significant surpluses for export. Not surprisingly, such states will be able to extract increasingly beneficial terms from the much wider pool of energy-deficit nations dependent on them for vital supplies of energy. These terms, primarily of a financial nature, will result in growing mountains of petrodollars being accumulated by the leading oil producers, but will also include political and military concessions.
In the case of oil and natural gas, the major energy-surplus states can be counted on two hands. Ten oil-rich states possess 82.2% of the world's proven reserves. In order of importance, they are: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Russia, Libya, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria. The possession of natural gas is even more concentrated. Three countries -- Russia, Iran, and Qatar -- harbor an astonishing 55.8% of the world supply. All of these countries are in an enviable position to cash in on the dramatic rise in global energy prices and to extract from potential customers whatever political concessions they deem important.
The transfer of wealth alone is already mind-boggling. The oil-exporting countries collected an estimated $970 billion from the importing countries in 2006, and the take for 2007, when finally calculated, is expected to be far higher. A substantial fraction of these dollars, yen, and euros have been deposited in "sovereign-wealth funds" (SWFs), giant investment accounts owned by the oil states and deployed for the acquisition of valuable assets around the world. In recent months, the Persian Gulf SWFs have been taking advantage of the financial crisis in the United States to purchase large stakes in strategic sectors of its economy. In November 2007, for example, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) acquired a $7.5 billion stake in Citigroup, America's largest bank holding company; in January, Citigroup sold an even larger share, worth $12.5 billion, to the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) and several other Middle Eastern investors, including Prince Walid bin Talal of Saudi Arabia. The managers of ADIA and KIA insist that they do not intend to use their newly-acquired stakes in Citigroup and other U.S. banks and corporations to influence U.S. economic or foreign policy, but it is hard to imagine that a financial shift of this magnitude, which can only gain momentum in the decades ahead, will not translate into some form of political leverage.
In the case of Russia, which has risen from the ashes of the Soviet Union as the world's first energy superpower, it already has. Russia is now the world's leading supplier of natural gas, the second largest supplier of oil, and a major producer of coal and uranium. Though many of these assets were briefly privatized during the reign of Boris Yeltsin, President Vladimir Putin has brought most of them back under state control -- in some cases, by exceedingly questionable legal means. He then used these assets in campaigns to bribe or coerce former Soviet republics on Russia's periphery reliant on it for the bulk of their oil and gas supplies. European Union countries have sometimes expressed dismay at Putin's tactics, but they, too, are dependent on Russian energy supplies, and so have learned to mute their protests to accommodate growing Russian power in Eurasia. Consider Russia a model for the new energy world order.
5. A Growing Risk of Conflict: Throughout history, major shifts in power have normally been accompanied by violence -- in some cases, protracted violent upheavals. Either states at the pinnacle of power have struggled to prevent the loss of their privileged status, or challengers have fought to topple those at the top of the heap. Will that happen now? Will energy-deficit states launch campaigns to wrest the oil and gas reserves of surplus states from their control -- the Bush administration's war in Iraq might already be thought of as one such attempt -- or to eliminate competitors among their deficit-state rivals?
The high costs and risks of modern warfare are well known and there is a widespread perception that energy problems can best be solved through economic means, not military ones. Nevertheless, the major powers are employing military means in their efforts to gain advantage in the global struggle for energy, and no one should be deluded on the subject. These endeavors could easily enough lead to unintended escalation and conflict.
One conspicuous use of military means in the pursuit of energy is obviously the regular transfer of arms and military-support services by the major energy-importing states to their principal suppliers. Both the United States and China, for example, have stepped up their deliveries of arms and equipment to oil-producing states like Angola, Nigeria, and Sudan in Africa and, in the Caspian Sea basin, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. The United States has placed particular emphasis on suppressing the armed insurgency in the vital Niger Delta region of Nigeria, where most of the country's oil is produced; Beijing has emphasized arms aid to Sudan, where Chinese-led oil operations are threatened by insurgencies in both the South and Darfur.
Russia is also using arms transfers as an instrument in its efforts to gain influence in the major oil- and gas-producing regions of the Caspian Sea basin and the Persian Gulf. Its urge is not to procure energy for its own use, but to dominate the flow of energy to others. In particular, Moscow seeks a monopoly on the transportation of Central Asian gas to Europe via Gazprom's vast pipeline network; it also wants to tap into Iran's mammoth gas fields, further cementing Russia's control over the trade in natural gas.
The danger, of course, is that such endeavors, multiplied over time, will provoke regional arms races, exacerbate regional tensions, and increase the danger of great-power involvement in any local conflicts that erupt. History has all too many examples of such miscalculations leading to wars that spiral out of control. Think of the years leading up to World War I. In fact, Central Asia and the Caspian today, with their multiple ethnic disorders and great-power rivalries, bear more than a glancing resemblance to the Balkans in the years leading up to 1914.
What this adds up to is simple and sobering: the end of the world as you've known it. In the new, energy-centric world we have all now entered, the price of oil will dominate our lives and power will reside in the hands of those who control its global distribution.
In this new world order, energy will govern our lives in new ways and on a daily basis. It will determine when, and for what purposes, we use our cars; how high (or low) we turn our thermostats; when, where, or even if, we travel; increasingly, what foods we eat (given that the price of producing and distributing many meats and vegetables is profoundly affected by the cost of oil or the allure of growing corn for ethanol); for some of us, where to live; for others, what businesses we engage in; for all of us, when and under what circumstances we go to war or avoid foreign entanglements that could end in war.
This leads to a final observation: The most pressing decision facing the next president and Congress may be how best to accelerate the transition from a fossil-fuel-based energy system to a system based on climate-friendly energy alternatives.
Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and the author of Resource Wars and Blood and Oil. Consider this essay a preview of his newest book, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy, which has just been published by Metropolitan Books. A brief video of Klare discussing key subjects in his new book can be viewed by clicking here.
Copyright 2008 Michael T. Klare
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61 Comments so far
Show All"To meet soaring energy demand, we would need a massive influx of alternative fuels, which would mean equally massive investment — in the trillions of dollars — to ensure that the newest possibilities move rapidly from laboratory to full-scale commercial production; but that, sad to say, is not in the cards. Instead, the major energy firms (backed by lavish U.S. government subsidies and tax breaks) are putting their mega-windfall profits from rising energy prices into vastly expensive (and environmentally questionable) schemes to extract oil and gas from Alaska and the Arctic, or to drill in the deep and difficult waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. The result? A few more barrels of oil or cubic feet of natural gas at exorbitant prices (with accompanying ecological damage), while non-petroleum alternatives limp along pitifully."
Yes, I think this has to be emphasized consistently, rather than taking potshots at smaller targets such as biofuels which we still have some potential to control. Right now, our choices are corporate controlled fossil fuel or corporate-dominated ethanol Let's make our own fuel and our own decisions on how we can use it.
Find out how. Read the book that tells all.
http://www.alcoholcanbeagas.com?bid=2&aid=CD8&opt=
I keep saying... Our future will briefly be Mad Max.
Then we will go back to being just above where we were at the dawn of the Industrial revolution.
Modern technological society was an obscene statistical blip fueled by petroleum. And once it's gone, so is our way of life.
Read Energybulletin.net & TheOilDrum.com for what is currently happening. For the real overview read "Environment, Power and Society" by H.T. Odum and "Energy at the Crossroads" by Vaclav Smil. "Powerdown" by Heinberg talks about energy and survival plans.
The petroleum oligarchy which runs this country must be driven out of power (excuse the pun), and a new green economy infrastructure using less energy is the rational response to this massive crisis. I prefer the idea of electric transportation, bicycles, walking --but certainly any idea that moves us off the petroleum/fossil fuel death track is worth serious consideration. This debate eventually dominates the 'news' as the dual crises of peak oil and global warming trump the controlling powers' version of events. Be the light and imagine the future green jobs of renewable energy infrastructure and small organic farms and gardens...
I think Galen is right. The new world order will be mercifully brief. The present order is based on the distribution of surplus. We have available for study certain African countries whose order is based on accelerated scarcity. This order looks a lot like chaos. Long before the world runs dry of resources the social order will come unglued. This unhappy future time when we imagine we'll have to turn down our thermostats lacks the proper apocalyptic vision. When they close Safeway, we might have to eat our house pets.
I had a frank and honest talk with my kids last night.
I told them they would never fly on an airplane.
Not because I am against commercial air travel.
Not because Air travel is bad for the environment and contributes to climate change (which it does).
But because between the imploding world economy and the coming scarcity of petroleum would put air travel back where it started. As a diversion and plaything of the obscenely wealthy.
As resources needed for survival become increasingly scarce the aristocracy will become more and more concentrated in several mega cities. Most of the remaining population will be conscripted to various labor populations outside the cities. Controlled and maintained by Blackwater type "security agencies" they will be forced to produce the goods required by the ruling class. A smaller number of "lucky" peasants will be kept within the cities to function as servants.
It will be an era of global slavery with the great mass of humanity in thrall to a relatively minute group of the ultra rich and powerful.
But, because of their insatiable lust for dominance, they will ignore, as they do today, the simple reality of a finite ecosystem with limited resources. They will continue to consume at obscenely wasteful levels and the global climate disaster will continue.
Eventually it will become impossible to provide the level of luxury to which the elite have become accustomed.
The cities will begin to squabble over dwindling necessities. In time these minor skirmishes will escalate into intercity wars. These conflicts combined with the disastrous affects of addictive consumption will lead to something akin to the fall of the Mayan Empire but on a global scale.
Perhaps, at some time in the very distant future, the next intelligent life form to inhabit the Earth will stumble upon the ruins of once opulent cities hidden in dense jungle growth and wonder how such an "advanced civilization" suddenly disappeared.
coldwarbaby@hotmail.com
ColdWarBaby47- Hunt down the book 'The Wold without Us' or catch the documentary thought experiment 'Aftermath: the World Without Humans' it inspired. Both are very worth it.
Both show what nature will do when we are gone. Within 260 years almost almost all traces of us will be wiped away.
And there is some valid argument in the zoological community that human style sapience is not a long term survival trait.
~COLDWARBABY~ It's gonna disappear a lot sooner than most imagine if we don't jump on the global warming issue with both front feet and convert totally to clean energy and do it very very soon.
Here is a three minute read, written by a world renouned geologist and he's got it nailed. Nothing else on this planet is of more importance for humanity. __ "Nothing else".
http://www.energybulletin.net/3647.html
"..Our future will briefly be Mad Max...."
Followed by mass drowning under 75 metres of water...
[ie. Kevin Costner's Waterworld]
"..we might have to eat our house pets..."
Now that's choice..my old ginger cat would be tough as a leather shoe...might have to add some garlic to liven the dish up!!!
Thinking in terms of disaster and armed conflicts as solution will prevent the discussion and the application of real solutions.
There are enough green energy supplies on earth to suply the population if we can harness it.
Immediately, we should reduce unnecessary consumption and follow the example of cities like Portland where public transportation per capita is very high and biking is encouraged.
We have to recognise that 'free' market capitalism can only function with increased regulation focused on reducing energy consumption and to increase the use of renewable energy alternatives.
For too long, all we think about in the banks & boardrooms are prof$ts. We MUST now think about our environment and our neighbors first before prof$ts.
Can we do this???
As the climate/energy catastrophe unfolds, the attitudes of the elites towards the masses will change dramatically.
The untamed hordes will no longer be viewed as a source of cheap labor or potential markets, but rather as the major disease vector threatening those elites, who will then actively intervene to greatly reduce the masses of humanity through war, systemic famine, and introduced disease.
It is unlikely that a better human species will emerge from this process, since those currently in power will be represented at an even higher density after the coming collapse.
The above essay is exactly the reason why "we" will never be able to reverse the rapidly deteriorating situation:
It's just way too complex and multilayered and scary for most to wrap their minds around. It's like trying to comprehend a billion galaxies. Or particle physics. Or 27 million fellow Americans reduced to food stamps and soup kitchens.
"Soup kitchens still exist?" asked a neighbor the other day.
Easier to dream about what it must be like to be Clooney at $20M per film, whether said film turns a profit or not.
Has anybody stopped to consider that when Bu$h was elected, oil was $18 per barrel and now it is up to $112 per barrel? Sorry, but the demand for oil hasn't increased that much over 8 years. What was discussed in that closed door energy meeting between Cheney and the major energy producers? Could a big part of the current oil shortage be due to the fact that since we invaded Iraq, the oil from that nation has remained in the ground rather than in the markets? I believe that our current "shortage" of oil is more deliberate than is being discussed, and is being perpetuated for the very reason of increasing the price of oil. Sure, there is a limit to the amount of oil that is avaiable, but I do not believe that to be our current problem.
Clean alternative energy is a very possible goal to meet. The reason we don't have it now is because we haven't been forced to find it. Further, if a cheap, alternative energy source were to be discovered, it would never be made known to the public, but would instead be bought and buried by the major oil producing corporations. The reason we don't have a clean, cheap, renewable energy source is the corporate bottom line of the oil companies.
What a time to be stuck with the most stupid leader in the world. If we can't get an intelligent man into the job of President we are all doomed. It may be too late already. Since Ronald Reagan took office this country has been heading in the wrong direction. Humongous gas hog's are still rolling off the assembly lines. It's time for the fantacy of unlimited oil resources to end. My whole life, I have tried to move the conversation of our dilema in the right direction. Not many people ever listened. It will be a harsh reality. Let's remember the ones in power who could have helped the situation when they had the chance, but didn't. We must move on, but I want to see some butts kicked.
By stating the world is headed toward an inevitable Acopocalypse is a sure way to make it a self-fufilling prophecy...
As someone suffering from Paranoid Personality disorder, catatrosphising is a common occurence in my life. It has yet to predict itself correct in my lifetime. But what it DOES do is prevent me from finding solutions to the present problem.
"Oh shit, it's all going to end in a *insert blank*" is actually results into one big giant excuse not to do anything about the problem and sit on your fat ass because you "know" it's helpless to begin with, a statement that is inheritly wrong because it is absolutistic.
Look are we in trouble yes. But am I going to spue bullshit in my ear in order to prevent me from doing ANYTHING productive, no. Because in the end, that's what REAL PESSIMISM results to be.
Real optimism is not telling yourself that the world will be okay. Real optimism is telling yourself whatever the fuck you need to in order to make the world okay.
---"How can we live in a better tomorrow if we do not expect it?"---
This guy must be feeling like he can say "Told you so":
http://wweek.com/story.php?story=7253
There will be not only wars over energy but there will be wars over such a simple thing as water.
The truth is there is more energy (actual energy) now than ever before because now more than ever before we can extract, store and use energy.
The current state of our energy system and economy is based entirely on the gov't and big oil. The gov't wants the taxes on the oil, the gasoline, the natural gas, etc.....and so of course the consumer pays...for the fuel and the tax.
But what if our internal combustion engines ran on hydrogen? Hydrogen can be produced and stored by anyone (no need for giant corporate structure and no need for gov't taxes based upon this fuel either. As such hydrogen would be produced by homes, businesses etc. (and from innumberable sources). A true free market in energy would exist....price for H2 would drop like a rock, personal real income would go up since its no longer going to the oil companies, the ethanol scam would go bancrupt, and a radical thing would happen....freedom.
never mind the oil.. it is FOOD and Water that is more important and dwindling at an alarming rate..
Sure weather change is seeing the water lvl's rise , but you can't drink salty water, nor can you drink polluted water.
6 - 7% of the water on earth is potable, that is a very small fraction of all that water you see everywhere.
Now with water becoming harder to clean/find, coupled with weather patterns that are, and continue to, cause major crop failures around the globe, it does not take much bran power to realize we are in DIRE circumstances...
Consider this, the major food outlets in N America, without regular deliveries of product (intensely petroleum based deliveries), were to stop.. 3 DAYS AND ALL THE SHELVES WOULD BE EMPTY..
I have been very very hungry in my days , never starving, but hungry enough to have stolen something to eat, and i am no thief by nature, but a growling stomach over rides any morals one may have.. now imagine what would happen if a whole city discovers there is no food in the stores....
So now add to that scenario having to BUY water, because it is now so difficult to get ANY water...the same people who rationed and gouged the world for oil , will now be doing that with basic needs such as food and water.
I do not exaggerate, there are multi national companies at work as we speak, planning to privatize water , they are experimenting in some small poorer countries right now.
these multi nationals, are of the same ilk that brought us Enron, Bears Sterns, the list is long. remember the fiasco in California with the power supplies?
The US$ is being propped up by various scams and schemes, it is wholly dependent on being the petro $. More and more the other currencies of the world are overtaking the US$ as the preferred monies to do business, S Americans ,Iraq, Iran (under Hussein) and privately the Saudis have been looking to trade oil in Euros. that is the number one reason for the US invasion and occupation of Iraq.
simplify now
get to know and trust your neighbors
DO NOT buy the crap they insist you need, buy only the necessities.
plant a garden
buy locally produced foods and items
When the whole Industrialized world falls under its own bloated greedy weight only those who are not Dependant on the commercial tit for food and water , are gonna be in any position to live.
I think you'll find that population has something to do with these crises. One child per family ... adopt second one if you can.
While our situation is indeed grim, I do not think we get anywhere by elaborating on horrible potentional scenarios or engaging in rounds of "told you so."
And it's not like we're going to be hit by a giant asteroid, and all just wake up dead one morning. We are going to have to deal with whatever is coming down the pike, and it will be less bad - or more - depending on what we do now - and tomorrow, and the day after that.
I intend to be one candidate for the U.S. Congress who takes the crises of global warming and fossil fuel dependence seriously, and offers a serious plan to try and alter our future for the better. While my website is still 3-4 days from going live, you can bookmark the temporary page at www.clarkforcongress.net - and then come back next week prepared to do something about all this.
The only terrorists we need to worry about are Osama bin Bush and Osama bin Cheney! They are evil! Impeachment is too good for them!
"Painfully slow development of energy alternatives" is key to me. There is no program. Pundits like Hannity say global warming is BS, and Heritage Foundation speakers say we can't afford to develop alternatives. That is what our (Bush's) man in Kyoto (Harlan Watson)told the conference.
We will wait until its too late. A depression, resource wars, and global triage may be our future.
brontoburger
"But what if our internal combustion engines ran on hydrogen? Hydrogen can be produced and stored by anyone (no need for giant corporate structure and no need for gov't taxes based upon this fuel either. As such hydrogen would be produced by homes, businesses etc. (and from innumberable sources)."
Source please? I would very much like to know how this Hydrogen production would be done.
"This leads to a final observation: The most pressing decision facing the next president and Congress may be how best to accelerate the transition from a fossil-fuel-based energy system to a system based on climate-friendly energy alternatives."
WRONG.
These folks including both prez-dim wannabes, are ONLY going to look at military solutions in order to maintain the status quo on Master's Plantation. Any solutions proposed by such Dims that change the power balance will be murdered in the womb. The fuckers didn't kill a mountain of humans to get where they are and let some temporary American President take it away from them. Reality check. Perfect storm.
This is the end of the Nation/State system of governance both here and around the globe. We murder each other and the biosphere in order to maintain a global oligarchy of ANIMALS living in obscene wealth while our corruption has spread to Gaia Herself and She is going to show our species what the guided tour of Hell World looks like, complete with wastelands of DU and landmines. No Nation/State will survive a 9 meter rise in the Oceans and the death of the Gulf Stream. None. Either directly from the coastal flooding, or from the ripples of millions if not billions of ecological refugees, hungry, with nothing but the clothes on their back. How many people live clustered within 40 miles of the US Coastline, east and west?
Pieces of 8.
SHAWN:
You hit the nail on the head. The whole shortage is being spun like mad. 18$ to 112$ that fact is none of the Prez runners ever mention. Alternative is out there, they sell electric cars in Europe remember. I have driven them in Canada but can't buy one. I know a few who converted their gas car to electric and save 10$ a day by not buying gas. Capitalism is killing, sorry has killed america and its cancer is spreading. If there is no competition in the oil/ gas/ home heating industry how can it be called capitalism. They will charge what ever price they want knowing the GOV will do nothing to stop it.
Read the OIL DEPLETION PROTOCOL: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse by Richard Heinberg.
http://www.oildepletionprotocol.org/
and watch (for some hope)
The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil.
The solution is to share the resources of the world. This can only be possible with the advent of the Christ into the modern world. Time is up kids....he is here and naught can change that. Either we learn to share or we perish.
A lot of people are unaware of how corporations currently prevent society from making this transition to a green economy. In my city for example (and I'm sure every other city in North America) corporate inspired legislation prevents me from generating hydrogen on my property, licensing an electric car, installing a wind turbine or selling energy back to the grid. On top of all this, all of the major utility companies have been privatized or de-regulated resulting in massive profits for them and massive increases for their customers.
One major shift must be the encouragement of local governments to alternative energy solutions despite the predictable protests from the corporate energy sector. Excuses such as 'safety' are greatly exaggerated and these excuses are used to supress any threat to the corporate monopoly. Nationalizing (or else strict regulation) of key sectors of the energy equation are neccesary for a smooth transition from fossil fuels to alternative fuels such as hydrogen, solar and wind. This is not possible though without eliminating the "special interest" sponsered politicians from the election field. The battle has begun and so far Joe Public is losing.
COLD WAR BABY: Another excellent posting today!
KEM: I remember a parable shared at Unity Church. It went something like this: a young man falls off his horse and all the villagers lament the event, offer real and fake sympathy; but the father, a wise (metaphysical) man answers, "Could be bad, could be good." Turns out the nation is being called to war and the young man's broken leg prevents him from having to serve. I point this out because having just read your METHANE posting, things look DIRE, there are always serendipitous events that happen. My friend was visiting a tiny nation (can't remember the name) between China and Tibet. She's a VERY spiritual woman, and likes to take pictures. She insisted that the little bus weaving the mountain passes stop so she could take a certain photo. A bit later down the road a giant boulder had fallen into the road and derailed a small truck. To my friend, her demand for the photo was the delay that indirectly made sure it was not THEIR bus that got hit. Things like this do happen all the time.
My point is that recently I saw on a documentary that Krakatoa has rebuilt itself and who knows, maybe Mother Nature will explode this thing to curtain the earth with volcanic ash enough to put a damper on global warming's more dangerous "feedback loops." Who knows? Miracles do happen.
Reading CD just about everyday makes it hard to maintain ANY optimism. To carry this LOAD of information, so much of it unjust, outright stupid (the greed and lack of vision of our leaders), criminal, etc tests the soul... but we cannot succumb to the presumption THIS IS IT. IT is ever changing, and while most laboring processes are painful, the birth that results usually makes the process necessary. Or Mother Nature can turn lemons into a lot of lemonaid.
It was never the intention of this country
to re-create countries like China etc.
This New World Order is a scheme hatched by
Bushco and his buddies. Bill Clinton danced
to there tune, and is being paid big bucks
for his service. $9,000,000 at last count.
Bush and Clinton would have been arrested for
treason during WWII. What they did is worse than
what the Rosenbergs did and they got the chair.
KEM: One more point, Leo heart to heart here... I just watched my new Granddaughter get born. It amazes me that people are having babies given the stakes in our world today, but as my daughter related, "Maybe these souls know something we do not." If you have ever looked at a newborn, especially a premature baby... that this 2-4 pounds of flesh organizes the basis for a life that will (hopefully) unfold over decades, that this TINY lump of flesh is endowed with this oh, so powerful force that FIGHTS for life. The SUM of that is present on earth today in the billions living; and just as before Edison the world was dark, a certain thinker comes along and ultimately and absolutely transforms the entire paradigm. Because the stakes are so high, and because LIFE is precious (even to those aligned with Spirit in a way we cannot fathom while locked into these flesh bodies with their ego monitoring stations limiting so much sentience) what we could never expect to happen probably will. And THAT is coming from a professional Cassandra!
Brian Brademeyer April 15th, 2008 1:43 pm
As the climate/energy catastrophe unfolds, the attitudes of the elites towards the masses will change dramatically.
The elites already have their plans in place, I refer to the following:
From the Project For a New American Century:
Project Participants:
I.Lewis Libby (Dechert Price & Rhoads)
Paul Wolfowitz (Nitze School Of Advanced International Studies)
"And advanced forms of biological warfare that can "target" specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a political useful tool."
******************************************************************************
THE MESSAGE OF THE GEORGIA GUIDESTONES
The origin of that strange monument is shrouded in mystery because no one knows the true identity of the man, or men, who commissioned its construction.
1. Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
"A weak person in power can NEVER be generous with power because they see QUESTIONS or ALTERNATIVE POSSIBILITIES as threatening their own supremacy and dominance." - John O'Donohue
It's time we elect a President with refined sensibilities who is willing to initiate serious talks and negotiate with other countries to share resources and find alternatives together. If we as a human species are to survive and keep this planet alive, we ALL need to work together to solve the problems every nation faces.
War is not the answer. Spend the war and military build-up money on developing alternative energy sources so that nations don't have to destroy one another.
This planet needs healing - not more death and destruction!
Sorry folks - this article is outdated by 3 or 4 years! As progressive as the discussion may seem to be our words on the net are not even worth the paper there not printed on... There is a freight train with a head of steam and yelling from the train station as it roars by won't slow it down one little bit.
Nope, not one little bit.
And, Rose, it has been said in spiritual literature that it is often darkest before the dawn. And, yes, I am much more concerned about the future of my children--or whether they'll even HAVE a future--than my own. Then I remember hearing it said that essence never dies. Perhaps that is what we must learn to do: let our natural essence shine through.
Another "end of the world" BULLSHIT ! If Michael Klare really cared to deal with this crisis, he'd first shut the F up and post articles on the benefits of going solar, wind, hemp, etc ... And as another poster pointed out, this article is long outdated. Talking about "end of the world" all the while allowing Big Oil to stifle alternative renewables through phoney patents and corporate frivolous lawsuits makes MK another James Dobson clone ! Come to think of it, this BULLSHITTY author is no different from the rightwing religious fundies calling for the "apocalypse" !
Professor Klare; I feel like I just left a GREAT lecture. Your oh so salient analysis was comprehensive but still full of specifics.
THANKS! The New World Order will be bloody in coming and when light is shed on this process we are empowered.
More Articles! I learned a lot from this one- (tricky Mr Klare-now i'll have to find your books!)
ThadStone; What are we gonna do? The answer is in the picture; when the time comes we won't fight with guns-they have more, they have Armor.
Here is our Irony & Revenge; we will fight/OIL, with GASOLINE. Ever trained a leaf blower on a fire? Imagine thirty guys with gasoline and fury-remeber watts?
Imagine a million people with gasoline and incendiary rage against the machine. 2nd amendment? Bummer, I'm a convicted felon. Hurt me, hurt my children, we burn. Your mansions, your yachts, your Gulfstreams, your financial districts, your refineries.
Dare Me.
There is good news on the horizon however, which is that a medium-sized, light-weight car is being developed and produced and it runs on compressed AIR. It is being developed and produced in France, but it is backed by Tata, the Indian car manufacturer. Google it - it is for real. A friend of mine's son is a graphic artist and has the contract for the advertising. It is supposed to be on the market next year. I think this is very exciting.
KEM PATRICK, SIOUXROSE, COLDWARBABY, THADSTONE, MIKE PETERS, SIMON ET AL
well, i had a thought in the middle of the night. and that thought was: SYNTHETIC OIL. i remembered one time in the m.e. putting this stuff in my car and the fact that it didn't need to be changed for a very loooooooong time. no-one has mentioned this 'synthetic' oil that i can see. so i've just done a search and found some very interesting facts. especially from the canadian company 'synlube'. see: www.synlube.com i'm not at all technical (well, i can use a hammer and a screwdriver and a drill) so i don't know if everything can be converted to synthetic and i know it's a lot dearer. but it could be an alternative and eventually it might be made more cost effective. so can any of you comment on this?
GORDON CLARK
that sounds like a good idea and i will certainly look at your website. i've woken up dead on a few occasions, but it was due to an excess of alcohol..............in an endeavour to distance myself from the 'doom and gloom'
Things will only continue to fall apart until we all dispense with the "junk science" and start looking at things scientifically. Dealing with real factual science will advance the move to reduce energy problems,
Worshiping at the global warming altar without analyzing cold hard data will simply lead to more whining, with very little progress......
Yes, yes please remind me again that Gore invented the internet..... (;>)
Regards
"Most people only care what you think if you agree with them" sad
Remember the words of Cheney: "The US standard of living is not negotiable" There will be no US oil shortage as long as the US military is paramount.Nukes will insure access to oil.
I hate to think about how frightening the future could be. Most people (not hard to understand why)can't get their heads around this problem, which is also linked to the global warming threat. Most Americans probably worry less about rising sea levels since this will affect Bangladesh and the peoples of the South Pacific islands first. As with Iraq and Afghanistan, its mostly THEM and not US getting killed and maimed. Imaging if we had gone all out to work on this in 1973, when the first Arab Oil Embargo occurred. Probably back in the 1950's there were some lone scientists predicting this, but they would really have been tuned out at that time.
Ballerina...it takes energy to compress air....
Siouxrose - congratulations on your granddaughter.
I go back and forth between fear for my grandchildren (and all children) and selfish joy in their existence. I wonder if it is indeed becoming a time when it is better not to bring humans into the world.
I look at the birds building nests now in my neighborhood. They are so bustling, cheerful looking and sincere. Nobody cares whether that particular little sparrow will live or die, and yet he persists full throttle brimming over with the life force.
The only approach I can see is to embrace the life force, raise the children to be good and to be strong so they survive and become a part of making things better.
And build solar, wind, thermal, hydro and tidal energy facilities right now!
Also, not too many kids. The earth is a closed biological system except for energy coming in from the sun. Our wastes of all kinds are being built up faster than they are being re-cycled. We need to restore the balance between plants and animals in favor of the plants.
Yea, there were scientists warning about this in the 50's. My dad took a course at college back then and every single major environmental issues except the depletion of the ozone layer was mentioned in this course. None of this is new, it's just that people would rather have there heads up their own asses and fill their heads with their own shit than change their lifestyles. I don't expect any major changes in a dramatic fashion without some serious serious crises - and maybe not even then. Why head a warning when you can just go around in self induced ignorance and total egoism. Humanity is quite simply fataly flawed. We were a genetic mistake. We are the problem, not the solution - and likely always will be. Of course it certainly would be a big help if the richest 10,000 or so people were to suddenly keel over (when is the world ever gonna wake up to the fact that these people are addicts and will do anything to get their fix?). It would certainly slow down the rate of destruction some. Unfortunately, there are millions of sociopaths that would gladly take their place and do just as much raping and stealing and killing as the original 10,000 did. Too bad too, cus there really are a lot of nice people on this planet as well ...