The Coming War with Iran: It’s About the Oil, Stupid
World civilization is based on oil. The world is running out of oil. The oil companies and governments are not telling the truth about how close we are to the end. Dick Cheney knew about peak oil back in 1999 when he spoke to the London Petroleum Institute as Halliburton CEO. He predicted it would come in 2010. After that it’s just a matter of years before it runs out. Whoever controls the remaining oil determines who lives and who dies.
Sixty percent of this oil is under a triangular area of the Middle East the size of Kansas. In that speech Cheney said: “The Middle East with two thirds of the world’s oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies.”
This small Middle East triangle encompasses the northeast of Saudi Arabia, all of Iraq and the southwestern part of Iran, along with Kuwait, Qatar and the Emirates. The US controls Iraq. It has friendly governments in the other states.
Iran is the exception. The US now surrounds Iran.
Controlling an area the size of Kansas shouldn’t be a problem for the U.S. military, except that it is heavily populated and many people in the triangle don’t want the Americans there and are willing to fight.
It’s been known for at least thirty years that America needs alternative energy sources. But instead of an alternative energy plan we got the invasion of Iraq by oilmen wedded to a dying business, willing to kill hundreds of thousands to cling to the last drop. The US is never leaving the region or withdrawing from Iraq. McCain is right about staying, but 100 years is too long. The oil won’t last that long.
Iran is next. Lieberman set up Petraeus to testify last week that Iranian-backed groups are murdering hundreds of American servicemen in Iraq. On Friday Gates called Iran’s influence in Iraq “malign” and Bush said if Iran keeps meddling in Iraq “then we’ll deal with them.” They are building their case for war with resolutions in the Senate and at the UN. It’s only western Iran, from the Iraq border to 150 miles inside the country that the U.S. will have to occupy. That’s where Iran’s oil is. But the U.S. will have a nasty battle on their hands in Iran even if they restore a Shah-like puppet in Tehran 30 years after the revolution.
The Saudis would not mind seeing the Iranian regime go. But the Saudis may also be on the list. The US may have to destabilize and control Saudi Arabia some day too. The Wall Street Journal a few years ago revealed that in the 1970s under Nixon, Kissinger had plans drawn up for the US invasion and occupation of the Saudi oil fields. Those plans can be dusted off.
The American oil wars are being launched out of weakness, not strength. The American economy is teetering and without control of the remaining oil it will collapse. There will be massive chaos in any case, when only enough oil remains for the American elite and whomever they choose to share it with.
That will leave an oil-starved China and India, both with nuclear weapons, with no alternative but to bow to America or go to war.
It’s not about greed any more. It’s about survival. Because the leadership of this country was initially too greedy to switch from oil to solar, wind, geothermal and other renewable alternatives, it may now be too late. Had the hundreds of billions of dollars poured into the invasion and occupation of Iraq been put into alternative energy the world might have had a fighting chance. Now that is far from certain.
What is certain is that these wars are not about democracy. They are not about WMD. The coming one will not even be about Iran’s nuclear weapons project. It’s about the oil, stupid.
Joe Lauria is a New York-based investigative journalist. A freelance member of the Sunday Times of London Insight team, he has also worked on investigations for the Boston Globe and Bloomberg News.
© 2008 The Huffington Post
Three books , Powerdown, The Party’s Over, and The Long Emergency dealt with exactly this.
Peak Oil is real. That’s why the oil companies have been and are buying up the alternative energy companies. Why the oil refineries and drilling platforms in and around New Orleans were not repaired. Why no NEW refineries have been built in 25 years.
They KNOW the oil game is up, and that the technological civilization dependent upon oil is about to collapse.
They are building their lifeboats (the Arctic seed bank for one…), and just like on the Titanic, the poor are not allowed to get in said lifeboats.
War with Iran is coming.
What they are not saying is that the oil will not run out. It will be CUT OFF. As will trade with the US economy.
The collapse will not be a gradual decline. It will be the sudden stop at the bottom of a cliff.
All too true.
It’s crunch time.
“The Limits To Growth” warned, in the 70’s, that we had two options: reduce consumption of non-renewable resources or face the inevitable starvation & die-off of a significant portion of the human population.
Cheney & Bush have chosen option #2, with the expectation of them and their progeny living in a Global Gated Community with BlackWater Guards to protect them from the starving masses.
War with Iran = eat the rich.
BTW, Ted Turner said on camera that he expects cannibalism to become commonplace in the coming years, between the linked crises of global warming and oil depletion.
With any luck the amount oil we gain from war, will be used up in the process of running the war. The amount of oil used by the military has increased significantly in the past 10 years, so that if the trend continues we will not be able to use the military hardware that has been built to control the world.
Very soon, the only people who will be using petroleum, will be the ones fighting and dying at the command of those hoarding the petroleum.
I’d like to know what multi-billionaires like Bill Gates, George Soros, and Warren Buffet are doing about this. I know the Gates’ have a wonderful foundation devoted to education. I’m sure the others have similar organizations. But if the Titanic’s sinking, those endeavors are just so much deck-chair arranging.
When I read about how much has been spent, and wasted, in prosecuting the invasion and occupation of Iraq, I grow sad and angry because I cannot help but imagine how far half a trillion dollars would have gone towards research and development into safe, sustained fusion power — the only real answer to breaking the world’s addiction to petroleum.
KaneJeeves- Bill Gates pumped millions of dollars into the Arctic seed bank. He has his place in the lifeboat.
You are screwed.
It’s a party for just the wealthy… and the other 99% of the planet is NOT INVITED!
Yes and it’s almost time.
The American empire will fall first on the American people. In fact it’s already crumbling and the poor and middle class are already feeling the consequences of empire building and collapsing.
Hoa binh
Thanks Joe for cutting through the crap and getting to the point. See my post to the James Carroll piece. Should have read yours first.
some point to consider, maybe…
1-Iran has relatively puny oil reserves
2-but Iran is in the path of the Caspian Sea oil route and a middle east pipeline to India
3-the orchestrated regional instablility has speculators inflating oil prices, great news for oil execs like Exxon’s CEO who pocketed over $16 million last year
4-since Iran’s reserves will soon be the first to dry out, they’ll need an alternative energy source like say, nuclear, and we want to make sure GE and KBR get those contracts.
5H1T 5H00T3R: good points, but since we have our military might collected there, why no go for Iran’s oil while we’re there? It is generally forgotten - utterly dismissed by the neocons - that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear technology is spurred not only by military security concerns, but by their dwindling petroleum reserves.
Bush said in an interview recently that he EXPECTS another 9/11 style attack, this time from Pakistan…
Why not just come out and say ‘Hey America… we, the super rich, have decided that a randomly selected major American city will have another couple thousand citizens die. Pay no attention to the fact that the attack will initially be blamed on yet anther US CIA backed puppet dictator, and that in ‘defending’ the remaining population of the US we will bomb yet another country that had nothing to do with the atrocity we just committed on you. Go back to your shopping and SUV buying, and watching CSI and American Idol.’
‘ Don’t worry that I’ve used Presidential Directive 51 to finish what I started with the USA Patriot act, that is, declaring martial law. And don’t worry none ’bout those old elections either. Tain’t gonna be any. I’m the Commander in Chief. You do as me and my boys say, and not too many of you will be rounded up and processed at my buddy Dick’s new ‘detention facilities’ built under those no bid contracts by our friends at Halliburton.’
‘And God bless America.’
How about July 4 as a good round easy to remember date?
The corporate media faithfully spouts the government’s falsehoods and infotainment while important articles like this one go to the wastebasket. Fiddling while Rome burns.
Joe Lauria…excellent article..
With the rapidly disappearing ice caps, glaciers etc, global temperatures rising
3-6 degrees and sea levels rising 35-75 meters depending on who you believe…adjusting chairs on the titanic [AKA: oil wars] will be like pissing into the wind…in the long term…What really irks me is the appalling waste of the last 8 years of the Bu$hCo’s criminal negligence and malfeasence in steering America into the proverbial toilet….
PS: Exxon’s CEO pocketed $35 million including options and bonuses, but who’s going to quibble over a million here or a million there…soon you are talking real money. Like the $492 Billion, being Exxon’s Market Cap…thanks inpart to Cheney’n Co’s masterful villiany..
Just so ya’ll know…
Youngstown, Ohio has a plan to raze abandoned buildings, tear up th estreets, cut utilities in the areas, as well as cut back on police and fire services in the affected areas.
They city council call it ‘Plan 2010′.
Kinda fitting really.
That’s about the time M. King Hubbart said the oil would run out…
why can’t the Iranians just accept America’s disastrous interference? the CIA orchestrated the ‘53 coup that overthrew their prime minister and initiated a reign of terror with Rexa’s ghastly torture outfit, SAVAK. then the CIA provided weapons to both Saddam and Iran during their bloody conflict in the 80’s. all the CIA wants to do is bring freedom to a land that, surely has no historical significance, right?
There aren’t enough U.S. troops for any kind of a ground war in Iran. If Iran is attacked by the U.S. it will be done with bombs, not troops. If Bush thinks he can control Iran with just bombs he’s out of his mind.
Oh.
Solutions are at hand. To begin with it is our duty to re-educate the general populace. We know that we can place little faith in the corporate chosen presidential candidates, therefore it is essential that the public be made aware of the fact that they have been cleverly misinformed for decades to ensure that the wealthy can continue to prosper at everyone else’s expense.
Put ads in local papers advertising REAL NEWS websites, newspapers and videos. Organize awareness groups, recruit people to join the Green Party or support Ralph Nader. Demand utility free development from your local politicians. Push the local government also to fast track any and all alternative energy programs that the citizenry wants to experiment with. Let the population know what we already know… that the threat from terrorists abroad pales in comparison to the threat at home by our own government!
Maybe Iran should just surrender.
“Controlling an area the size of Kansas shouldn’t be a problem for the US military except that it is heavily populated and many people in the triangle don’t want the Americans there and are willing to fight.”
Yep.
And even if those pesky locals could be ground into submission somehow, and the Kansas-sized borders were militarily sealed, how are you then going to extract the oil and ship it safely out of the region in order that its economic value can be recognized on the other side of the world?
Bill from Saginaw
All a crock — this ‘Peak Oil’, ‘Warming’, and CO2 as a ‘greenhouse gas’ to be feared/taxed…
There is a HUGE abundance of Oil other than in this particular ‘Arc of Instability’, as discussed. An ocean of it in the Caspian-Basin, for example, and in S. America, and elsewhere (like Mexico) — and too-many more to even list-properly/exhaustively. What we ARE reaching is the ‘Peak’ of what the Industry has let their refinery-infrastructure decline into … and their refusal to produce not only better-refinement/fuels, and plants geared towards the higher sulfur-content of much of the remaining/well-known Reserves (as yet barely-tapped).
It IS true that the West wants very-much to deny ‘Cheap-Oil/Energy’ to the developing-world (and, with threats both economic and population-based from them, I rather understand these Priorities?).
But, since early last-century, we’ve known that refineries/oil should go towards an emphasis upon producing clean&cheap LPG/Propane — from NatGas and oil (for easy/fast/cheap applications in powering our car/light-truck existing-Fleets AND into smaller/cleaner/community-based DC/Utility-plants instead of monstrous/Coal-fired Utility giants and their Grids).
The CO2 from this will NOT ‘kill the environment’, NOR warm-it (cool-it, more likely). But, Big-Agriculture, Meat-diets, land-use, and coal-fired pollution spewing from current AC/Big-Grid Utilities IS causing some minor-Warming recently (along with considerable/deliberate ‘help’ from HAARP), and droughts/climate-change/Ag-warfare take their toll.
All is going according to a long-held ‘Plan’ — which will soon devastate/destroy many in the 3rd-World, continue to enrich the ‘chosen-few’ in the West, and establish ‘their’ long-sought-after “New World Order”.
The Aristocrats of this Future are familiar-names even now (currently associated with Bilderberg, G-7, AEI, Trilateral, AIPAC, Wall Street, PNAC, etc.) — you know most of them, and their lackeys like Kissinger, and their puppets like our current ‘political-leadership’ — spearheaded by the Bush’s/Clinton’s/etc. They, and their wealthy/globalist-Elites (who were behind almost EVERY War, ‘Revolution’, and ‘Economic-Crisis’ since the 1700’s-Enlightenment) have already ’secured their Goals’ and Talking-Points/Propaganda [particularly these false ‘environmental-scares’, Carbon-issues/taxation, ’shortages&scarcity’s’, Central-Banking controls over Currencies, and all the rest of this same-Rot…capitalizing while/when-convenient, even on the re-Founding of an old-Mythos re: Ersatz-Israel and our ‘Blessed American-Empire’. GMO, climate-changes, ‘medicine’ that doesn’t ‘heal’, crop/mammalian-disease, wars, chaos, ‘unrest’, political/national-Divisions “egged-on” endlessly, and many-more such ‘tools’ are at their easy-disposal and find convenient-synergy for Instituting and oppressing-others with.
We perhaps are ‘toast’, already (but, none of this “needed to happen”…).
It STILL always boiled down to ‘elitist-Greed’, and the Mythos to avoid ‘oversight’.
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right, take on Iran…stuck in the middle of the fight…
5H1T 5H00T3R April 14th, 2008 12:36 pm:
“some point to consider, maybe…
1-Iran has relatively puny oil reserves…”
Not so much is oil, but Iran has very large natural gas supplies. THAT’S what the Neo-Cons are after in Iran.
It isn’t about “getting the oil”. It’s about “controlling the oil”.
With Iran and Iraq in turmoil, Saudi nearly corners the market on oil exports and makes insane profits. We don’t need to get the oil out of Iran or Iraq, just thrown the country into chaos, keep in chaos, and they will be unable to export their oil.
The game is a rigged Saudi victory and the kick off was 9/11. Weren’t those ‘terrorists’ from Saudi Arabia? How long before people start waking up?
“The US controls Iraq.”
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
TheLorax- The instant the first US firecracker goes off in Iran, the common people of Saudi Arabia will be through the palace gates of their leaders to lynch them.
The common folk of Saudi Arabia know that any attack on Iran will have had the blessing of the leaders. So the Al Suad family will be removed. OPEC will collapse, oil will stop flowing.
PERIOD.
And not just to the US. How about ALL Western ‘democracies’?
This doesn’t even touch on the hellstorm that will engulf Israel. The ENTIRE Middle East will be out for blood. And poor defenseless (YEAH, RIGHT!) little Israel will be right in the sights.
Boo friggin’ hoo.
And with no oil… well, we all know how it goes by now don’t we?
“Controlling an area the size of Kansas…”
Not quite.
Kansas: 82,000 sq miles
Iran: 1,648,000 sq miles. Just Iran, not the entire Mid East.
IOW, Iran is 2x the size of Kansas.
Kansas population: 2,764,000
Iran population: 75,000,000
Kansas established: 1861
Iran (Persia) established: 4000 years ago
Mr. Lauria’s glib “Controlling an area the size of Kansas shouldn’t be a problem for the U.S. military…” is one of the most ridiculous statements uttered by someone who is not a lifelong neocrazy GOPathological cult member.
The usual suspects are banging the drums for another war in the ME and we know for a fact that millions of faux-fed Americans will take the bait. How’s that for civilized?
I am seeing the term “civilization” in many recent articles and it always makes me laugh. The concept of civilization has its roots in colonialist times and is highly eurocentric. The world at no time, ever, has been civilized. The proof is in the fact that we still go to war at the drop of the mention of a bogus “enemy” (who has the resources) rather than talk to that “enemy.”
I would so love to see the “elite” planting their own gardens, making their own beds, sewing their own clothes, etc. when all the rest of us marginalized persons no longer clutter their world.
Hyperbole:
“Whoever controls the remaining oil determines who lives and who dies.”
Energy can be harvested from many sources other than fossil fuel. This seems maybe a bit overdramatic.
Also, he has the cart before the horse, his causal chain is backwards. I would write it like this:
“He who controls who lives and dies controls the oil.”
It’s no secret the military and the oil business are coupled.
Living in the Midwest and growing up among the corn and soybean farmers struggling here to make ends meet, one quickly realizes: a crop like HEMP could be a HUGE boon to plains states farmers.
It could also help put and end to the incentive in Imperialistic desires to use U.S. personel and resources to fight over access to foreign oil supplies.
Missouri has an excellent climate and soil to produce HUGE quantities of INDUSTRIAL hemp (oil) that could be manufactured into biodiesel and mixed with traditional diesel that would allow for 55 mpg. vehicles that burn clean and help vastly reduce C02. America could EASILY have vehicles (like Germany -Volkwagen) that get 55 mpg., last for 300,000 miles and burn much much cleaner than what is on the road today. WE could be free of foreign oil in a mere matter of years IF We The People would push hard enough.
Hemp was reportedly outlawed in 1937 as a result (partially) of hemp oil cutting into the profits of Petro oil. During WWII of course the U.S. realized they needed America to GROW Hemp so they started the Hemp for Victory program.
http://www.globalhemp.com/Archives/Government_Research/USDA/hemp_for_victory.shtml
This website claims:
“Farming 6% of the continental U.S. acreage with biomass crops would provide ALL of Americas energy needs”.
Assuming the aforementioned is only 50% true there is NO reason not to allow farmers to ONCE AGAIN produce a crop of HUGE potential like our grandfathers did that would help America break the addiction to OIL WARS, help the farming economy, the processing economy, save energy, reduce pollution, and save the lives of our men and women first and formost.
Oil companies shouldn’t be afraid of the “competition”. In fact if they had any sense they would be PROMOTING clean technology and thinking of Hemp biodiesel as a way to greatly reduce costs of refining a “clean” diesel fuel ADDITIVE that they might be able to mix at least in a 50/50 mixture. Think how much less the U.S. would have to import of foreign oil. THink if they could EXPORT a clean FUEL to Europe that is quickly moving to clean diesel technology.
Check it out for yourself. I think it is an EXCELLENT transitional fuel(additive):
http://www.hempcar.org/hempfacts.shtml
Mirf59- True, there are energy sources other than oil.
But none so concentrated or easily obtained.
When it runs out…
so does technology as we presently know and use it.
With all this “End of The World” talk would you rather be armed or would you rather let the government take care of you?
Those who choose the government to take care of them should just continue to go shopping and hang out at the mall.
All of a sudden the 2nd Amendment becomes something very real.
This article is hyperbole and overly dramatic. The author talks in exaggerated absolutes like “world civilisation is (only) based on oil”–and we will go insane and explode into nuclear war and mass chaos when it runs out…blah blah blah. Lauria’s claims aren’t that simple–or true. Is this article from the National Enquirer? Sure makes for entertaining reading. Of course the author doesn’t even mention the many energy alternatives that are already out there and being used. That would deflate his ’sky is falling’ theme.
Zamboni- If only ‘world civilization is based only on oil’ was just overly dramatic.
But it’s the truth.
Modern technological society is a statistical blip that has been fueled by petroleum. When it’s gone, or rather, beyond the reach of even the most psychotically wealthy even to afford, then the world as we know it is done.
No more plastic. No more chemical fertilizers and pesticides. No more cars. No more commercial air travel (and we already may be at that point. Southwest and Delta just announced a merger, and that Southwest’s fuel bill for 2008 was expected to be 500 BILLION dollars. More than the anticipated profit…. can we say collapse? Knew ya could!). No more just about all we take for granted, including fresh fruit in the winter, air conditioning in the summer, and generally, the life of convenience as we know it.
Get used to it.
The dreams of the techno-fetishists that we will be able to invent our way out of this are just that. Dreams.
Reality is gonna bite us all in the ass.
And believe me, Mother Nature has BIG, SHARP teeth.
The definition of peak oil is the moment when 50% of supplies are depleted. Every oilfield has its own peak and of course a global peak could be established. The idea behind global peak oil is that it comes when demands are steadily growing, thus creating a situation of diminishing supply and rising needs. This inevitably leads to recession and depression. How strong and how fast are hard to say, but considering the impact the relative weak supply cuts of 1973 and 1979 had on the global economy, a complete standstill seems the most likely outcome. The oil supply of the currently exploited fields plus known reserves has already peaked three years ago. For a while markets were able to control the damage. Over the last ten months this has become increasingly difficult. Destroying Canada for a few drops of black gold is a slow and costly process. Of course, if you can’t control supplies, you might control demands. Just cut down on the population. Taking out China will be the ultimate goal.
TRY READING THIS
I have been saying forever Sugar cane in the answer. You remove the sugar first and use the rest of the plant. NO FOOD IS LOST and the stuff grows like a weed with almost zero zip fertilisers.
Any war with IRAN will drive the price of oil to over 200$ a barrel. OK america are you ready to pay 8 to 10$ for a US gallon or over 2$ a Litre the rest of the world? The price of food right off the map for the average WAL MART worker, you will get that cannabalism for sure?
Then and this is the unknown what happens if IRAN saves a few Russian missals ( SUN BURN) they bought last year the take out the oil rigs in Saudi, Kuwait,Iraq and any other place? Then the price is 400$ a barrel 15 to 25$ a US gallon?
I agree about a ? mark about peak oil. It just falls into place way to easy.
If peak oil is real, then why do the oil companies and car makers block everytime the electric car tries to be introduced?
Wouldn’t make sence to introduce a product ( electric or AIR CAR) that people can buy than make a product( gas car) people can’t afford to run?
It is high time some politician was maybe asked that very question?
The main problem that ‘peak oil’ has is the overly simplistic explanations it gets … such as in the opening paragraphs to this piece.
Peak oil does not mean the world is running out of oil in the next few years.
What it does mean is that worldwide production is going to reach a peak soon, or perhaps has already reached a peak.
A better way of looking at it is to say that the era of ‘cheap energy’ that we’ve been living in for the last 80 years or so is coming to an end. Of course, anyone who can read a commodities market report and see oil at a $100 USD a barrel already knew that. What peak oil means is don’t expect that to ever come down much. It will fluctuate in short term changes, so we may see it drop. But long term, its that expensive or higher.
Grasp this. There are several billion people in China and India who want to be just like us and use more oil. And American energy policy today is to continue to use more and more oil. Combine that with the belief that worldwide oil production is somewhere close to its peak now.
As Scooby would say …. “Rhuuuuh-Rhoooooh!”
Zamboni …. The article is from the Huffington Post. Which is basically the online equivalent of the National Enquirer.
cool name … .I want to drive the Zam-bon-ni!
Peak oil was passed last year in November.
ALL of the oil companies quietly and publicly acknowledged that the world demand for oil had surpassed supply.
THAT was peak oil.
We are now on the down slope of Hubbart’s peak.
And once on that slippery (!) slope, you are committed.
If anyone likes good science fiction, the book “Earth” by David Brin is a good read. He’s trying to take a look at 2050 and what the world would be like.
The message I remember from the book is that today we have a window where we have wealth and energy to maybe, just maybe change the course of the world. In this book, by 2050, that window is gone. The population has grown so much and energy has become so expensive that everyone is too busy just trying to survive. Too many people fighting over too many resources. So no one has enough to be able to really change anything. Its all just fighting over scraps.
I am looking forward to James H. Kunslers ‘Hand made world’ a work of fiction in the oil depletion future.
I know I enjoyed, but I admit was somewhat depressed by his now VERY accurate ‘Long Emergency’.
Anyone who says they can tell you exactly when the Peak was reached, or will be reached, is a complete fool.
Its a curve. Its like a gentle hill on a highway. At some point you know you are going up. At some point you know you are going down. In between the curve leveled off and switched from one to another. But on a long gentle hill like on an interstate, you really can’t see exactly where that is. You can look and tell that the road has generally stopped climbing and has leveled off. But without some very precise measurements of the elevation, you’d be hard-pressed to find the exact spot where it stopped going up and started to go down.
And, while we are on the top of that curve, what you are going to see is a lot of short term fluctuations. When the price of oil rises, more people will find ways to get small amounts of it to the market. And, people will find ways to use less. These two factors will cause a short-term over correction, and suddenly it will seem like there’s more oil on the market and the price will drop. The time around the ‘peak’ is likely to be marked by a lot of these types of short term swings.
We’ll only know when we’ve truly reached the peak once we’ve passed it. We will plainly be able to see that worldwide oil production has dropped noticeably, and that we won’t be able to get back to the numbers we once saw. But, we won’t be able to measure that and define it until after we are noticeably on the downside of the peak.
If anyone thinks they can tell you that the peak was last November, they are full of it.
Kunsler’s Long Emergency was mostly garbage.
Oh, I think he gets the big picture right. But all of his details were crap. The one thing the man convinced me is that he’ll never be an engineer. He is way too simplistic and way too static in his thinking.
One example. He had a chapter where he listed alternatives. He went out of his way to prove that in his opinion none could replace oil. In terms of the big picture, that’s probably true. The era of cheap energy is over and we won’t replace that for some time to come. But, in the details, his arguments were garbage. He basically was forcing each possibility to replace oil completely on its own. And when it couldn’t meet that high hurdle, he dismissed it completely. He also made some fundamental mistakes in the way he looked at some technologies. He struck me more as a man who had made up his mind what he wanted to prove, then forced his arguments to prove it.
He also seriously exaggerated the effects of peak oil. He essentially assumed that society is static and can’t adapt. Then he went through all the gloom and doom about the problems. But, the world is not static, and it does constantly adapt.
So, in the big picture, the book was ok. If it got someone who’d never thought about oil not being plentiful to realize that someday it won’t be plentiful or cheap, then it did a good job. But his analysis of both the effect and the alternatives were largely crap.
It’s Israel stupid.
5H1T 5H00T3R,
Actually Iran may have quite a bit of oil. As in, the third largest proven reserves in the world: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
1 - Saudi Arabia: 260 BB
2 - Canada: 179 BB
3 - Iran: 115 BB
4 - Iraq: 105 BB
11 - USA: 21 BB
The Saudis have kept all well outputs and siesmographic data secret since 1982, so who knows if that’s a real number. Canada is real, though mostly in tar sands. Need $80 per barrel to extract it - likely going forward.
So, no, Iran does have a significant amount of oil, as does Iraq. Currently we don’t get that much from either of them (about 4% of US imports from Iraq, none from Iran), even SA is only our third biggest supplier (behind Canada & Mexico, ahead of Venezuela & Nigeria). Iraq is sixth or seventh with Angola.
From the US perspective, Iran or Iraq are longer term plays; say 8 - 10 years out. Not to mention the immediate havoc that disrupting Iran’s oil would have on China and Europe.
Please God, let us make it through to January 2009 without an Iranian war.
Habitat Vic- Canada’s ‘reserves’ are in the Tar Sands. They are NOT oil. They are semi-liquid bitumen. Coal that failed to form properly.
The Tar Sands are about as far from oil as water is from champagne.
The city of Ft. McMurray is now a cancer laden cess pit for the Alberta oil industry. ALL of the local lakes and rivers are chemical stews of toxic waste, heavy metals and carcinogens.
The only reason they are even remotely profitable now is the grotesque price of oil on the open market.
Mendo Chuck April 14th, 2008 3:52 pm says:With all this “End of The World” talk would you rather be armed or would you rather let the government take care of you?”
Chuck, you got access to some anti tank missiles or are you going to fend off the U.S. military with you rifle? What is it with you gun nuts? The Government can starve you out, blow you out, no contest-get real.
Galen:
You are right about Fort McMoney ( McMurray).
If the oil industry wants to play we are running out game then we should force the Gov to allow electric cars on a mass production to make the oil last longer. Harper should be bombarded with questions why. If Honda or Toyota were given the green light I am sure a car would be forsale in 12 months tops. Now don’t give me there are no electric cars. I have driven full electric cars at the race tracks I race at. They have from time to time demostrations of them. The range ( 120 K) and speed (85K) would fit 80% of the average persons needs. To offset the lost taxes well tax the rich and oil industry
Good Luck- Did you catch the documentary film ‘Who killed the Electric Car?’
There’s your answer.
Yes I did and I feel more people now that the price of gas has more than doubled since that movie was made have had enough. How do you think people will feel if Iran is taken off line and OPEC jumps the price. Do you think 4 or 5$ a litre will wake people up even more? They sell them ( electric) in Europe is the old saying why not here. That is how the SMART car got here.
Galen:
Don’t know if you answered my question from another posting. You mentioned the October surprise, is that your month you feel the next 911 will happen?
“Energy can be harvested from many sources other than fossil fuel. ”
Tanks and jets today only run on fuels derived from oil. Oil is a strategic commodity and has been since WWI. While this is true, it does not follow that “oil” is the only “good” reason to fight a war in an oil producing area.
“The Tar Sands are about as far from oil as water is from champagne.”
They sell it though. What are the buyers doing with it?
Um no its actually about PNAC NEOCON idealogy stupid. The oil companies could just as easily buy oil from Iran just as we do with the rest of the Persian Gulf nations but they can’t cause of an embargo that is in place due to a certain Middle Eastern country that lobbies our congress and calls for sanctions and embargos not to mention a full blown war. Why do do the leaders of the left continue to obscure this fact and blame oil? Sorry people its more complicated.
Also the price of oil has not gone up the dollar has fallen in contrast to other currencies thanks to the housing market disastor hence our dollar buys less oil making the cost go up.
Good luck- almost anytime between now and November.
If there really were an oil shortage, we would have a Manhattan type project on a global scale looking for alternatives. That hasn’t happened.
The oil shortage is likely another hoax. If Thomas Gold is to be believed, oil is not a fossil fuel in limited supply, but upwells from the depths of the planet, and some oil wells will in fact become replenished, so we have all we need for some time to come.
Who benifts from the hoax? Big Oil of course, prices have went from 20 dollars to 110 in the last 8 years. If it were to leak out we have plenty, it might even drop to 20 dollars a barrel (which would be about 12 dollars a barrel in 2000 dollars).
Those who want to globalize the world and control other nations also benefit. By making oil expensive, and controlling the supply of oil, you can control other nations, and inhibit their development, and force them into global government which will then control consumption with a carbon tax.
So the war is about the oil, we want to control Iraq and Iran, since we want to control the world oil supplies, and increase our control over other nations, so we can control the world with global government. I am not necessarily against globalization, if done the right way and with honorable intentions, but not the way they are doing it.
If we do attack Iran, oil will be over 200 dollars a barrel and gas will cost 10 dollars a gallon, and you will have gas lines since there will be shortages. Good thing Bush is filling up our strategic oil reserves with oil at 111 dollars a barrel.
As for when the next 9/11 will happen, as asked by an earlier commenter, well, Israel has it’s 60th birthday coming up, so it might be soon. Remember OBL’s tape and anger expressed at the Pope, Tony Blairs recent conversion to Catholicism, the Popes visit this week, McCains attempt to link Iran with AQ, Bush saying the next 9/11 is being planned in Pakistan, etc. The 7 years of Tribulation might be about to begin. (BTW, OBL has a B’day coming up too, he will be 51). My guess is after the next 9/11 we nuke Pakistan and Iran, after linking Iran to AQ. The timing and urgency over those airplane inspections has to make you wonder if airplanes are involved again. Maybe too much imagination. Hope so.
5H1T 5H00T3R, yes, I think Seditious and Habitat Vic are right. I remember reading that Iran had the second most fuel reserves behind Saudi Arabia with third most in oil (after SA and Iraq) and second most in natural gas (behind Russia). They have signed a huge natural gas deal with India with a pipeline being built and (correct me if I’m mistaken) have been (or are soon to) start selling their oil in Euros (or a mixed currency other then $$$).
We have all heard stories that the US $ is propped up by it being the petrol trading currency of the world so we have a multitude of reasons why our wild ass gamblers in and around the Bush/oil team would like to roll the dice once again even though they have already lost the house, car and most of the farm (our country - reputation wise, financially, and morally).
Fallon should have coupe these crazies. Lets get them out of office and into a good 12 step program.
MiMiCcS April 14th, 2008 9:43 pm
“So the war is about the oil, we want to control Iraq and Iran, since we want to control the world oil supplies, and increase our control over other nations, so we can control the world with global government. I am not necessarily against globalization, if done the right way and with honorable intentions, but not the way they are doing it.”
excellent synopsis. the world desperately needs a world government that’s responsive and organic, an expression of the people. instead we’re still playing RISK on a geopolitical map that was refined in the 19th century.
the neocons are overextending their hand, they’re moving the pieces to quickly w/out thought, consideration or foresight. children playing with guns and cards.
what exactly are they thinking? - it has to be all out brute force/military aggression. the stakes are very enticing. the author is correct the oilfields are concentrated in SW iran/S iraq/the gulf. i’m sure it’s unnerving to cheney - the fact the oil fields are in a concentrated area.
let’s face it the US navy has become the mercenary force for the oil producers and consumers (saudi arabia, japan, EU). it’s gunboat diplomacy…it should be old hat for a seasoned warmonger like the VP.
russia and china cannot let this happen (US military aggression w/out a response). iran is a client state of russia and china.
we have the capabilities to extend the war into space by disabling the opponents satellites… but did ya notice the chinese shot down a satellite (in space? yeah) recently, do you think they could shoot the shuttle down before it disables their communications/guidance systems in space?
venezuela and other sympathetic countries (hopefully a few in the EU) would impose an economic embargo. our currency will be worthless (even in china).
an attack on iran disrupts the flow of oil from the gulf and as was noted they could strike oil facilities in saudi arabia.
Honestly, bush/cheney would have to be raving mad to pursue such an endeavor..
but, what are their choices? on their left possible imprisonment for treason, on their right riches as far as the eye can see - with a slightly increased risk of global nuclear annihilation. choices…
…peace…
I’m with pax4all.
It’s about Israel, stupid.
As was the occupation and destruction of Iraq.
The Coming War With Iran : It is NOT about oil and we are not that stupid neither
It is about the fate of the DOLLAR. Iranians have started selling oil in Euro, which has gold as its backing, and no more in SU dollar which has absolutely nothing as a backing. As a matter of fact the US dollar is nothing but a piece of paper printed in trillions each day by the criminal mafia organization called the Federal Reserve. Iranians have figured out that if you can not buy oil with this piece of paper then it becomes what it is : a worthless piece of paper. They are perfectly right to refuse a worthless piece of paper as payment for their precious oil. Hence the conflict. We should not buy into Bush’s lies about nuclear threat or terrorism. He told lies about Iraq and is telling lies about Iran. The real terrorist organization in the world is the Federal Reserve, not Iran, not Al Qaeda.
COMarc: came back to this thread to see where the oil debate has gone here. I agree with your assessment above. The mistake he makes is the same line of “we can’t do it” that we hear in the media. Another line that we hear everywhere and are supposed to accept like the sun comes up in the east is that there is nothing we can do to curb our increasing demand. Bullcrap. U.S. demand over the last year is already down somewhat, and we haven’t even tried yet.
Now I’m not an Avery Lovens type that believes technology will rush in at the last minute and make everything rosy again, but I believe and have always believed that when the s–t hits the fan (now) very many of us will show the others how we can adapt and still have a level of civilization that is neither the dark ages nor this jetting down the road to the future on a giant fart of hyper-consumption. Many visitors here have suggested some of the many ways we can do this. Could say more but you probably get my drift. Not one solution, but many solutions.
Seemed to me also Kunstler went out of his way to insult everyone south of the Mason-Dixon line.
“Iranians have started selling oil in Euro, which has gold as its backing, ”
No currency is backed by gold anymore. You’ve been given bogus information.
What came to my mind while reading the article was Galileo. In the past, few people were able to reach a level in life where they could devote their intelligence to purely academic issues or art.
In this day and age, there are plenty of people of questionable intelligence, who are able to look to the future and see what’s coming. As noted in the article, even in the ’70’s, there were people who saw the writing on the wall as regards oil and who proposed actions to take in order to secure a vital resource in the way in which our society functions.
These people only came up with negative responses to a solution to the impending crisis. And as we all know, the solutions offered were violence to take control of the remaining supplies of what our society has built itself around.
Galileo was able to take a step back and look for an answer that was not only the simplest, but the correct answer. It was much easier to posit that the Earth revolved around the Sun, rather than go through a confusing maze of explanations to maintain that everything revolved around the planet Earth.
In a sense, we have the same situation today. Plenty of educated people with all the time in the world who are incapable of taking a fresh look at an important issue and having the courage to bring forth a positive solution to a complex issue.
I realize that there are many vested interests in maintaining the status quo. Yet even Exxon-Mobile could continue to profit enormously by embracing the simplest answer to today’s most pressing issues.
The economy doesn’t have to revolve around oil and its derivitives. Such a view ceates a world full of problems and danger. How difficult would it be to posit that we can use each region of the world to create sustainable energy based on each country’s unigue geografical features? Why the resistence to a simpler and much less complicated solution to this planet’s ever increasing energy needs?
Even the MIC could profit from the new forms of energy production and use. They have at their employ many of the brightest minds who could easily change from a negative response to the very real issue of energy use and production to a positive, simpler answer.
We are in a new Dark Age were original thought is suppressed and people silenced. It doesn’t have to be like this. We could greatly reduce the need for oil except for those areas where it is the best alternative. As for the rest of the way we use this precious and limited resource, there are answers that don’t involve violence against people or the planet.
Will this Dark Age end before it is too late for everyone?
Oil just popped $113.93 a barrel.
Still think war with Iran is off the table?
jerk newton,
Looks like you lurk in the shadows to plant your nonsensical red herring. Forget about Euro. The fact of the matter is that Iranians would accept a piece of toilette paper rather than the Fed’s trash, O.K.?
They reject the DOLLAR because it is woth nothing. Have I been clear enough for you ?
“Looks like you lurk in the shadows to plant your nonsensical red herring. ”
If this means that you now admit that the Euro is not backed by gold then my work here is done. If that makes no “sense” to you I can’t do anything about it. I would think you would be more grateful in any case for helping to advance your knowledge just a little bit.
OTOH, *your* insinuation that I said anything else is what’s called a Straw Man.
The real red herring here is stating that an up comming war is “about oil”. This makes people think they can just ignore the other things going on with Iran that might have something to do with such a war. WHy not just address those issues directly instead of weaseling out with the “about oil” bumper sticker?
We are no where near the end of the War on Terror. However, we need not have any more Oil Wars. Wars over oil are destructive, costly and unnecessary. We need to think of alternatives, because creating world wars over oil is the height of insanity.
Devil 1- And pray tell, how long, at present and projected consumption rates will the Brazilian field last? What about India and China’s growing demand for petroleum?
And as this is an offshore ‘find’, how deep is it? Will they be using anchored or floating drilling rigs?
The US domestic oilfields hit their peak in 1972 and have declined catastrophically ever since. The US has been a net IMPORTER ever since. Even if you immediately drilled and refined the ANWAR field, it would only last SIX MONTHS at current consumption rates.
You seem to be unwilling to acknowledge that the oil companies, which have oil production data they REFUSE to make public, have not built a new oil refinery anywhere in the world in the last TWENTY FIVE YEARS!! Do you think maybe they might know something you don’t?
No one has mentioned the vast Bakkan U.S. oil fields.
Also, don’t call each other names. That’s called “Divide and Conquer.”
Lester Brown has the best analysis in PLAN B 3.0
He tells us exactly what we have to do right now.
appropriate name for a Bush supporter: Devil 1. (above) Birds of a feather…
The Forbidden Fuel
Alcohol Can Be a Gas by Dave Blume, published by the
International Institute for Ecological Agriculture, 2007, 630 pages, $59 hardcover.
In the forward written for this book in 1983, when the project was first started, R. Buckminster Fuller writes that it is possible to harvest enough energy to sustainably meet humanity’s needs through solar sources while completely phasing out all fossil fuels and atomic energy. Many know Bucky Fuller for his work on geodesic domes. Few are aware that he was also in charge of alternative energy research for the U.S. military during WWII, and held ethanol fuel in great esteem. The author was inspired and mentored by Fuller in the 1980’s, and it could be said that this book is the culmination of Fuller’s work in this field.
The intent of the 600+ pages of Alcohol Can Be a Gas is to act as a complete tool kit to revolutionize our transportation fuel system, from the grassroots up. It combines sweeping vision with intricate ecological and mechanical detail, starting with a thorough history of the use of alcohol as a fuel for internal combustion engines.
The Model T car was designed as a flex-fuel vehicle, and got 34 MPG on alcohol until prohibition put an end to small-scale ethanol production. “There’s a lot that goes on in the world of energy that you never see on the 11 o’clock news” writes the author. “The control of a country’s energy is the ultimate control of its people.”
Blume has seen his share of the dark underbelly of the big energy conglomerates in his 25+ years working in this field, and carries the scars to prove it. There are six big sections to this tome, each of which could be a book in its own right, comprising 29 chapters. Section I gives the sweeping vision of ethanol set within the context of an ecologically renewed agriculture. The great promise of alternative energy development under President Carter during the first energy crisis is summarized, and what the author dubs ‘MegaOilron’s’ success at squashing it.
Blume dives quickly into the controversies swirling around ethanol as a fuel with a chapter entitled ‘Busting The Myths.’ These myths include: ‘Ethanol’s net energy is negative’ (studies from Brazil show ethanol has a positive net energy ratio of 9.0 when using sugarcane); ‘There isn’t enough land to grow the crops for ethanol’ (highway medians could grow enough ethanol crops to supply 40% of America’s gasoline); Ethanol is an ecological nightmare’ (a permaculture ethanol system vastly improves soil fertility); ‘It’s food vs. fuel’ (cattails grown in wastewater show tremendous promise); and ‘Ethanol fuel does not address global warming’ (the growing of plants, especially if organic, ties up much more CO2 than goes into the ethanol).
Part of the beauty of this book is its ecological sensibility. Blume is an organic farmer and brings 20+ years of bioregional wisdom to his writing. Two chapters contrast the nightmare of America continuing on its present energy course vs. retooling the way we do agriculture and energy along the regenerative principles of Permaculture design. There are sidebars on the restoration of degraded prairie farmland using highly complex fuel crop polycultures, and the practice of swale contour farming to replenish groundwater and topsoil.
His vision for a grassroots ethanol revolution is ambitious but conceivable: “A nationwide switch to organic farming is in order, but it can’t work if we maintain a monoculture-based system, with its present emphasis on corn farming.”
The second big section of Alcohol Can Be a Gas has five chapters laying out the How To’s of alcohol production for fuel, including chapters on feedstocks (everything from algae to buffalo gourd), fermentation technology, distillation, and plant design.
Section III deals with saleable or otherwise useful ‘co-products’ from alcohol production — from livestock and aquaculture feeds to yeast, methane, protein and propagation material for mushroom production. Sections IV, V & VI address the mechanics, regulations and subsidies for using alcohol in engines: “We can put 85% alcohol in our cars now! Really!”
Included are chapters on the business of alcohol, its economic, regulatory and legal considerations and a practical vision of small-scale production that Blume dubs “Community Supported Energy.” Six case studies depict the type of grassroots on-farm ethanol production the author envisions in his revolution.
One of the few criticisms I have of Alcohol Can Be a Gas is that Blume is unabashedly caustic towards the large energy corporations. The book will likely alienate middle Americans who are uninformed about the politics of energy. Instead, it is tailor written for activists who want to put their shoulders to the millstone and do something. Despite its narrow-minded focus on ethanol as The solution to our looming energy crises, this book has the feel of a resource one does not want to be without — the depth of a Whole Earth Catalog hybridized with the humor of a Humanure Handbook.
Those people working on biofuel development would be well advised to study the history of ethanol cooperatives described in this book — honesty, integrity and setting a high ethical standard seem to be crucial to success.
It’s high time major media interview David Blume, unless we want more starvation and war.
The U.S. burns more than 7 BILLION barrels of oil per year. The Bakken field that they discovered in North Dakota could yield a maximum of 4 billion, which would provide the U.S. for about 8 months tops. ANWR might provide us with 2-3% of our oil for 15-20 years.
We’re heading to SOYLENT GREEN, folks …
Watch this boys and learn the truth
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6513264891119894588