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Technorati$3 Trillion May Be Too Low
Our original estimate of the cost of the Iraq war was too conservative: in reality the cost for the US will be much higher
President Bush has tried to give the impression that the $3 trillion dollar estimate of the total cost of the war that we provide in our new book may be exaggerated.
We believe that it is in fact conservative. Even the president would have to admit that the $50 to $60 billion estimate given by the administration before the war was wildly off the mark; there is little reason to have confidence in their arithmetic. They admit to a cost so far of $600 billion.
Our numbers differ from theirs for three reasons: first, we are estimating the total cost of the war, under alternative conservative scenarios, derived from the defence department and congressional budget office. We are not looking at McCain's 100-year scenario - we assume that we are there, in diminished strength, only through to 2017. But neither are we looking at a scenario that sees our troops pulled out within six months. With operational spending going on at $12 billion a month, and with every year costing more than the last, it is easy to come to a total operational cost that is double the $600 billon already spent.
Second, we include war expenditures hidden elsewhere in the budget, and budgetary expenditures that we would have to incur in the future even if we left tomorrow. Most important of these are future costs of caring for the 40% of returning veterans that are likely to suffer from disabilities (in excess of $600 billion; second world war veterans' costs didn't peak until 1993), and restoring the military to its prewar strength. If you include interest, and interest on the interest - with all of the war debt financed - the budgetary costs quickly mount.
Finally, our $3 trillion dollars estimate also includes costs to the economy that go beyond the budget, for instance the cost of caring for the huge number of returning disabled veterans that go beyond the costs borne by the federal government - in one out of five families with a serious disability, someone has to give up a job. The macro-economic costs are even larger. Almost every expert we have talked to agrees that the war has had something to do with the rise in the price of oil; it was not just an accident that oil prices began to soar at the same time as the war began.
We have been criticised, but for being excessively conservative, for including only $5 to $10 of the $75 to $85 increase in the price of oil since then. Money spent on the war - on a Nepalese contractor working in Iraq - does not stimulate the economy as much as money spent on hospitals or research or schools at home. These contractionary effects were temporarily covered up, hidden, by the flood of liquidity and lax regulations that led to a housing bubble and a consumption boom - with household savings plummeting to zero. But this simply postponed paying these costs - and increased them.
With the exception of a few lonely surviving supply-siders, most economists believe that deficits matter, and the huge deficits to finance the war will have their toll in the long run. Deficits matter in both the short run and the long. They help crowd out private investment that would have stimulated the economy far more than the war expenditures; and the reduced investments reduce long-run productivity. With 40% of the funds borrowed from abroad, Americans will be sending interest payments abroad - lowering living standards at home. Finally, even Fed Chair Bernanke (formerly the president's economic adviser) admits that the deficits have reduced the room to manoeuvre - the ability of the government to respond to the looming economic crisis.
Spending so much on the war has economic consequences, even if you don't think there is any connection between the war and the economy's current woes.
In adding up the quantifiable costs of the war, it is hard not to come up with a number in excess of $3 trillion. In putting a $3 trillion price tag on the war, we believe we have been excessively conservative - a $4 or $5 trillion tag would be more reasonable. And remember - this is just the cost for America.
Joseph E. Stiglitz is university professor at Columbia University and was the recipient of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics. Linda Bilmes teaches at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. They are the co-authors of the recently published book The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Costs of the Iraq Conflict.
© Guardian News and Media Limited 2008
51 Comments so far
Show All- Never spend your money before you have it
Thomas Jefferson
Of course it's too low an estimate; these people won't be satisfied until they have it all...percentage by percentage.
You have it figured out Siouxrose. Take good care of the new baby. ___ Stock up.
J CONRAD: Along with Mars, the Mammon rule via lobbyists in D.C have insured that specific industries: military, oil, big pharma will be "winners" in the Gulf War, but I have been seeing what you related in the above post, that is, the costs of this debacle far outweight any remote sense of profit, but for the few aforementioned "clients." It would have been so much cheaper to either A. pay for the oil B. negotiate with our neighbors for better trade deals so that if the dollar was no longer the major oil-based currency, other items would have filled in the gap C. invested in renewable energies so that the addiction on fossil fuels would not have put us into this bankrupt mess in the first place. It's all about the money for such a select few. They probably have already disbursed the missing 2 trillion, or whatever the sum was, I lose track there's been so much graft, corruption, and malfeasance in this whole Orwellian obscenity of a preconceived occupation, a lot like premeditated murder on a massive scale. The next Geneva Conventions will call it what it is, and hopefully prosecute. Barring that, the lords of karma have a plan which of course extends beyond the "shelf life" of this singular incarnation.
I hate to say this, but after mulling over the comments of people who display a high degree of honesty and good common sense here, it is rather apparant to me, that McCain is either delusional or insane.___ or both. __ If not, he is well aware that what is currently transpiring is desired by the powers who be and he wants to be in on the final outcome of the few who will benefit.
McCain is not alone in Congress, or in the business world, look at how many support him and his opinions of so many things. Some current opinion polls show he will defeat either Obama or Hillary.
I do not see any escape from a depression and there will be anacrhy here all across America, not sure of what will happen to the rest of the world's governments and economies. I'm certain that China and Russia will survive it, they have leaned how to survive economic disasters.
This next depression will make the one of 1929 seem like that one was just a bad few years. This one will destroy America, it is not going to be pretty or fun.
Looks to me like the US is going broke.
I don't know whether I should hope for it of dread it.
Siouxrose:
Thanks, and what a lively thread.
I think there is a similarity between the mad MIC Big Oil America of today and the historic gold and silver based Spanish empire.
Rather than establishing a balanced economic base and cooperative relations with other nations, the Spanish focused on acquiring minerals and waging war. The warfare eventually became more costly than the value of the gold and silver that sustained their greed-based house of cards.
The insane McCain plan to occupy Iraq for a century could cost $60 trillion (plus interest) in order to steal perhaps $10 trillion in oil revenue. What Genius ! And how many will die, millions perhaps ?
And the ruthless Spanish aristocrats, like the wealthy sociopathic imbeciles that run this country, became locked-in to a system than could not adapt to changing global conditions both economic and cultural. In a sense they cannot think beyond thier own limitations as human beings.
Spain also experienced a spiritual death via their inquisitions and America now has political machines linked to regressive fundamentalist belief systems. Some of the Americans engaging in the Abu Ghraib tortures considered themselves to be Christians.
More than one empire has fallen due to faulty economics and a lack of understanding as to the cause and effect results of violent actions. Crimes against humanity do not come without a price.
Robbing the U.S. citizens to pay Paul(son) and his banking cronies is not only a moral hazard it is moral bankruptcy. As the forces of economic collapse grow stronger given the approximate 70% of yet to be reported bad sub-prime loans, the increasing cost of the Iraq war, the rising strength of the Euro relative to the dollar, the increasing inflation rate in the U.S., the burden of recession born by the average U.S. Citizen, and the likelihood that the Saudi's will eventually peg their oil price in Euro's instead of Dollars, the U.S. Ship of Fools is taking on water and listing badly to the right. Thoughtful people will board the lifeboats now.
truthmonger,
Exactly. Kinda puts Daniel Oceans and his crew to shame does it not?
If I didn't know better I'd say that our leaders have a plan to bankrupt our country, reap the benefits then flee to some sanctuary like a ranch in Paraguay.
Nice comments! Sometimes I feel like I gotta jump onto these and rant and rave, but I gotta say, all my favourite points are nicely touched upon here. So, back to the sarcasm!
[ahem]
Whatever happened to Winning at Any Cost? Never Surrender? Deficits Don't Matter? The Treasury has a technology, called a printing press, that allows us to create more money, at virtually no cost?
The world may consist of 90% of educated, thinking, caring, sensitive, sensible, sane people like all of you... and these are the characteristics that will ensure that you 90% will remain losers for generations to come.
Your kids will probably inherit it from you.
John McCain says the United States is "no longer staring into the abyss of defeat" in Iraq,
I think we are in the abyss staring out.
To Mr. Chersonsky:
"we, the American People, should be more afraid of the Neo-Conservatives than any nation or terrorist group and start looking at the "Demolition of World Trade Center #7″ on September 11, 2001."
Just a thought. Wouldn't it be very ironic if the direction we've been looking in has been the wrong one all along. The biggest impact in people's minds came from WTC #1 and #2 and Pentagon. Not nearly as much attention has been paid to number 7. What if # 7 played a bigger role than previously thought and #1 and #2 were really just smokescreens (albeit useful ones to get the ball rolling).
Things that make you go "hummmhh".
Siouxrose April 7th, 2008 9:00 am
"IAMMYSELF: The sum of imbalances you relate will indeed provide for extremely difficult times; of course during such cycles human beings on individual and collective levels determine what they are made of."
Indeed. I think this is already happening. Many of the folks I know have related my feelings that a great change has been in the making for some time now. It's been difficult to describe, as it's been mostly felt, sensed. It's as if a huge, swirling mass of energy has been slowly coalescing to a core of intent and then action. I think we are very close to the point where all the intent gets focused into an incredible amount of energy. The thing is, energy can be used for good or ill, as we have all seen.
The troubles that we are witnessing will continue due to inertia. Some problems may be mitigated in the short term, but the sheer volume of humanity almost guarantees that before the energy can be turned to good purposes, it will create some very disturbing outcomes. That is when we will see what we are made of.
The good news is, as matti alluded to, nature seeks a balance. The world will not die. Many people (my wife and myself included) are working with others to form communities to help each other in the coming hard times. Life continues even amidst the most severe of storms. Only together will we weather this one.
Stiglitz and Bilmes forgot about a Press Conference held in 2002 by Donald Rumsfeld. He said, "The Department of Defense can not account for 2 trillion dollars worth of arms and materials." Then, in 2003 the GAO reported that the Department of Defense could not account for another 1 trillion dollars of arms and supplies.
Then you have the U.S. State Department hiding their war time expenditures in private corporations like "Blackwater", Accenture, and sundry other private contractors.....
My guess is that the Invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan have cost the American taxpayer 7, that is, 7 trillion dollars. The U.S. Government has so many "Off Book" operations that the U.S. Congress is not capable of investigating and is a complicit Co-Conspirator in the takeover of the U.S.Government and the theft of well over a trillion dollars, and the destruction of the U.S. Economy.
The dollar has now devalued 77% down from $.89 to 1 Euro (2001) to $1.61 to 1 Euro (April 1, 2008) that is a drop $.72 or 77%. Every driver in America has had to pay an average of $1,000 more for their gasoline last year. For more than 40% of the nation, they could not buy any extras and that is how recessions were begun.
With Kellog, Brown, and Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton, building "Detention Camps" throughout the United States (Contract given January 2006), we, the American People, should be more afraid of the Neo-Conservatives than any nation or terrorist group and start looking at the "Demolition of World Trade Center #7" on September 11, 2001.
KEM: Your humanity shows on C.D. how much that big heart of yours feels for the aggravated challenges that are befalling so many, like a lava flow moving slowly down the mountain towards the homes waiting beneath.
IAMMYSELF: The sum of imbalances you relate will indeed provide for extremely difficult times; of course during such cycles human beings on individual and collective levels determine what they are made of.
BB 001: Your illustration of those individuals who only recognize their own apparent wealth is a good characterization of too many in America. Not only as seen in the nation's bloodlust for war for profit, but also in its chosen forms of entertainment, this rush towards aggression is everywhere celebrated and for the lowest in spiritual development, seen as homage to god. I call this dis-ease (for it represents a veritable spiritual problem) Mars rules. Mars signifies the human ego, selfish desires, and the whole me-first/screw you mentality that has become an epidemic in America. This nation has had seasons where privilege and opportunity were better distributed on the basis of those that clammored for ideals. Of course OUR voices have been shut out as media has become owned by the same promoters of Mars "values" that accord influence to big pharma, prison-building, resource depletion, war, and punishment in the name of justice. This is a diabolical paradigm that cannot be maintained... America is going to have many wake-up calls, and as KEM pointed out, the depression has already touched those without a job or medical insurance. (I have lived without either for years, and learned to be very resourceful. The skills of indigenous people are those many must learn in order to ride the coming waves.)
I will have to agree with the author's and have for quite some time now. The cost to us alone in reconstructing Iraq (because we are the ones who tore it up) are going to be staggering. The cost in human suffering is another high dollar item. That doesn't begin to count we have aging equipment that needs to be replaced. And all the other needs of this conflict. I don't think the reality of the situation we are in has hit the average American yet! We can not afford another 10 years of drain on our resources and economy too! Osama bin laden doesn't need to try and destroy us anymore, the Republican's are in the process of doing it. And all for what?????? It hasn't done a thing to end terrorism. In fact it's only increased with the Bush policies. It hasn't made the region any safer. Even Saddam being gone isn't anything to crow about. Because now they are going to have to find another one like him to control the country!
"When the Four Elements cannot find balance, they invite their brother, Storm, to enter the World from his home Outside."
matti,
Your post brought to mind a dream I had many years ago (funny how I seem to remember this one over thousands of others).
I dreamt that I was sitting in my living room when suddenly the door blew open (sucked of its hinges) and a ferocious wind starting sucking everything out of the house. There was fierce thunder, but the howl of the wind just as loud. I was trying to hang on to the couch but it too was being sucked out. Luckily (I think), I awoke before the storm got me.
I have had an image of a perfect storm for a while now. If we take a minute to look around at the various troubling issues that are swirling around us (huge debt, weak dollar, climate change, population, creeping fascism, military adventurism, etc.), it doens't take much imagination to realize that any one of them spells trouble. That there are so many huge problems that are, in the words of Jeremiah Wright, "coming home to roost," means that we are most likely in for a very bumpy ride. How fun it will be remains to be seen.
Such worry for nothing.
When the Four Elements cannot find balance, they invite their brother, Storm, to enter the World from his home Outside.
Storm arbitrates any disputes and thus restores balance.
He then returns to Outside, leaving -once again- only his Lesser Children to remind us of him, and his Power.
War is one of these children.
The current imbalance will be settled.
Of course, whether the People can successfully weather this Weather, that's another question entirely.
Remember. As interesting as this information may be, Money is False.
A simple, co-ordinated action of the People can erase any and all of these False Debts.
But only Storm can erase the True Debt of Imbalance.
I see things getting very bumpy and very interesting, very soon.
Let's have fun with it. This ride is supposed to be FUN.
-matti.
The administration wont tell the truth about the number of Iraqi dead either. The Iraq Body Count is NOT an estimate. It is a count of the dead that are verified by being reported in more than one western media organ. It is still useful, but there is no way that you can say this is an estimate of the actual dead unless all Iraqi dead are reported in the western media.
All the actual estimates agree by use of time extrapolation that the number of dead is approximately 1.3 million.
Check my math:
"Proven" Iraq Oil Reserves: 100 billion barrels.
Market Value: $110/barrel.
Total Value: $11 trillion.
We will have to confiscate the oil fields and claim all the value of the oil to pay this venture off. Time to go "double or nothing"? Bring back the draft and occupy Iran too?
My well off retired Dad likes his tax cut, and my new grad accountant nephew likes the way the repubs run the economy. No one seems to realize what this administration is creating.
There might be a silver lining in a world wide depression - that greenhouse gas emissions might be reduced. The problem with that scenario, if things get really bad, is humanity will cut down what is left of the forests for fuel and hunt/fish many species into extinction.
(88,000)) jobs lost JUST last month, mostly manufacturing and computer data base related jobs. One month!! That's 88,000 MORE out of work and few decent paying jobs available. There is a limit on how many school bus driver, or Wal-Mart greeter jobs are available.
That's __88,000__ who won't be purchasing new vehicles, houses, furniture, appliances, etc. The recession snow ball keeps on rolling DOWNHILL, faster and faster and gets bigger and bigger every month. There is a limit to how many jobs we can lose and not have a depression. The Big "D" the powers who are don't wish to mention. So they don't.
And as ~Paul M. Smith~ noted so well, it's the cost of food and then the fuel and necessities that we notice the most. Those people who lost jobs, likely lost any medical insurance they had also and now may have to rely on their 401-k savings to just make house or rent payments, ___ if they have any 401s to cash in. Get ready for the BIG fall. One of the first things you will notice just before it hits, is large, long time auto dealers shutting down.
Now the culprit/critters are trying diligently to further hide their tracks. For a very good explanation of why M3 is important I will refer you to this article that explains it very clearly:
http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Articles/M3_Money_supply.asp
The FED stopped publishing the M3 numbers a couple years ago, probably so they could inflate the money supply with impunity, or at least in secrecy.
Inflation is here and getting worse. My guage is the cost of an 8 oz block of Cabot Seriously sharp cheese, a dozen eggs, and a gallon of milk. All have gone up substantially in just the last 6 months. The cheese has gone from $1.77 to $2.58 as just one example.
A lot of good posts here, folks, and thanks especially to you, Gail, for the info on the hundreds of billions the privately owned FED is soaking us for. Here is a link about how all this mess started for those of you who haven't seen it when I've posted it previously. This effort by the elite to rob then enslave us didn't start 40 years ago, but over 200 years ago:
http://iamthewitness.com/doc/RothschildsTimeline-filer/frame.htm
"Out beyond the ethernet the spectrum spreads,
DC to daylight, the cowboy mogul rides.
Never worry where the gold for all his glories gonna come from,
Get along doggies, its comin' out of your hides..."
Jackson Browne
Our U.S. Military is broken.
Our U.S. Economy has been in an ever deepening RECESSION for over 15 months. .The hidden cost and deferred costs will drive the Economy into DEPRESSION.
IMPEACH both BUSH and CHENEY...........NOW
UN Ambassador Madeleine Albright, upon being asked whether the deaths of half-a-million Iraqi children from the sanctions were worth it, she replied that yes - they were 'worth it' ...
3 Trillion dollar plus is definitely worth it.
J CONRAD: Excellent post.
The main jobs being created by Bush's war are in the health industry, looking after Vets! Does GWB think that is a good thing or a bad thing?
Obama has voted for every dollar (and, thus, supported, the war).
Basically, they recognize the bank is going to foreclose and they face bankruptcy, so they strip the house of anything of value and go on a spending spree. When the game is up, the loot is in the hands of the international bankers and other multi-national corporations, and we will be forced to confiscate everyones gold and sell it to the World Bank/IMF, who will also take control of our valuable assets, like Big Oil and the MIC and our military, for UN use (wink, wink). The global government is thus formed, a global currency is created, and we will pay the UN a carbon tax.
Of course, our present leaders will also be in charge of the global government, and the American people get Left Behind. Our multi-national corporations are global citizens, and the global government will treat them as kindly as the US government did. The looting of the rest of the world will continue. In America, Stalins rule will apply, if you don't work, you don't eat. Sick, old, unemployed, good luck. Big Brother is busted, or so he says, so sorry.
Get it? This was the 40 year plan. Mission Almost Accomplished.
Of course, government can always issue it's own debt free money to rebuild, but the World Bank/IMF will not allow countries to do that, since the bankers would not make much money and countries could not be controlled with debt.
"Maybe it's necessary for the system to collapse in order to rebuild a more sane society. Georgie and Co., along with the financial speculators, are inadvertently demolishing an old order that is sick and twisted anyway."
I am almost certain you are 100% right. Remember, people aren't as dumb as we often let them to be, let the ashes of collapse refuel a brighter future.
Failure is merely feedback. So far, our policies have not given much "immediate" failure, but when their seeds are planted, we will see new change.
---How can we live in a better tomorrow if we do not expect it?---
Maybe it's necessary for the system to collapse in order to rebuild a more sane society. Georgie and Co., along with the financial speculators, are inadvertently demolishing an old order that is sick and twisted anyway.
Shiva dances the dance of destruction and invites Vishnu to rebuild.
"With 40% of the funds borrowed from abroad, Americans will be sending interest payments abroad - lowering living standards at home."
We are already sending interest payments abroad unless the climbing $$billions in interest we spend every year are going to the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank here in the U.S..
According to the Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board, this is what we have spent on INTEREST ONLY over the past 3 years:
Interest paid on total outstanding Federal debt:
Fiscal Year End 2007 $430.0 billion
Fiscal Year End 2006 $405.9 billion
Fiscal Year End 2005 $352.4 billion
Check it out for yourself: http://www.economyincrisis.org/content/debt
And now, of course, in addition to our tax dollars paying off "government waste & war" debt, we can happilly look forward to paying off Wall Street's "speculator debt".
Here's what Gary Dorsch said: "But the badly battered US financial sector soared 15% on "April Fool's" day, after British PM Gordon Brown called on the Group of Seven central bankers to stop worrying about "moral hazard" and start backing a joint plan to recapitalize global banks and buy-out the toxic sub-prime mortgages to rescue the banking system."
Hell, we wouldn't want these misfit central bankers to worry about a "moral hazard"! Not that they worry anyway with government officials in their pockets who are willing to dump more debt onto the laps of taxpayers. Let's just send these tax-paying fools a message that they'll pay any kind of debt "we the dictators" DEMAND they pay!
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dorsch/2008/0404.html
And then, the herd of sheep walked backed home, knowing what to expect from the WOLVES they voted into office.
END OF STORY.
The Iraq fiasco should replaced the 1919 theft and fire of the Forbidden City in the Guiness Book of World Records as the greatest theft ever perpetrated.
"SO"!!!!! ___ It isn't our money, we borrowed it from China. A trillion here and a trillion there and the Pentagon says it is missing two trillion they cannot account for.__ Pfhhht, it's paper money.
The depression and the falling dollar value will make such figures moot issues. Be like the Boy Scouts folks. ___ "Prepared". You ain't seen nuttin yet.
one thing we forget so easily are the 'plane loads' of american 100 dollar bills shipped to Iraq. These dollars are now on the black market in the middle east. The IED's are bought with 'american currency'... Now if I were an arab nation who wanted to do harm to America and make things harder for the fundementalists.. yep.. I'd make sure those 100 dollar bills became less valuable, one way or another... how about 110 dollar a barrell oil.. hummmmmm..
like the frog in the hot water... it will be to late here in the states when this whole mess comes home to roost...
anyone been to the grocery store lately.... not a word about the hyper inflation I'm experiencing in our local conservative news daily... and hyper inflation is exactly what I'm experiencing...
batton down the hatches people... times are a changin'
To iammyself:
I hear your crying question: "Will there be a day when the poor from the impoverished United States will try to flee to richer countries by whatever means possible?"
But don't hold your breath. With the latest technologies and control grid systematically being pieced together "the poor from the impoverished United States" will not be able to flee any more than the impoverished from East Germany could flee to West Germany. The same scientific dictatorship that built the Berlin Wall is fast at work building an Electronic Berlin Wall that will be much harder to breach in the coming years. Visit www.sillyConValley.net
Fear not, the Bush family fortune, and the ill gotten gains of the war investors will not be much affected. The more fool hardy may have lost something in the recent financial mess and inevitable declines of the US dollar, but most of the elites are probably right now putting their tax free gains in foreign currencies and corporate treasure troves around the world. Not in US dollars of course. Even the above authors, Stiglitz and Bilmes, with available overseas investments, will probably escape the damage that will be borne by the averaged duped US citizen, since they know what is coming. What is your strategy for escaping the cost of the US wars?. If you are on a salary or unemployed, you pay full price. And justly so. May your sins be visited on your children, and grandchildren, down the generations.
The U.S. must maintain an army in Iraq indefinitely. What are the bullet headed gorillas who get paid a thousand dollars a day as security in Iraq going to do if they return to the U.S.? How are they going to make the kind of money they're accustomed to? Think about that.
And what about the enlisted dopes who go from door to door in Baghdad terrorizing families and murdering old men? Do you want them signing on to the police force in your town? Bear in mind they are too crazy and unstable for any other employment.
And what of the gang members in Iraq who each month ship crates of machine guns back to their homeboys in the slums, the barrio and the ghetto? Do you have the welcome mat out for these armed morons?
Again, only John McCain shows sense on this issue. They need to stay in Iraq for a hundred years. They must continue to fight over there so that we do not have to fight them here in our homeland.
The intellectual driving force behind the invasion and occupation of Iraq (and perpetual war against that abstract noun:Terrorism)is the Radical Republican theory that the only way to eradicate the vestiges of the New Deal is to drive the country into massive debt. They tried it once before during the Reagan years, but Reagan got cold feet and backed off. The Bush Regime used 9/11 to push this plan through to its conclusion and which even in political defeat in 2008 (if that happens) they will not give up on. They are determined to roll back the progressive gains of the 20th Century (however modest they have been in many areas)and war is the best way to control the domestic population, cow dissent and steal as many elections as they can to maintain a narrow majority.
Regardless of the statistics, be they real figures or "fuzzy math" this country is in massive debt. People need to realize that. In this recession, some people are starting to feel the sting. It will not be long before more poeple experience the same. Like the pace of governmental policy change, when more people economically feel the pain of what George the Inferior and his minions have inflicted upon this country, then people will react. Obama, Hillary, and McCain are not going to change the consumer culture in America. They are not going to change the corporate culture either. So don't look to these people to be the saviors who will make this mess go away. It is not something that can be cleaned up in days or months. It will take years, maybe even generations.
" Independent voters will vote their pocketbooks IF the pocketbook problem gets rubbed in their faces properly. "
Very true, but there is not enough attention being paid to how warfare debt is impacting the economy, especially by the consolidated corporate media.
Almost everyone on earth understands what is happening EXCEPT the average American.
So, how much will four more years of war cost? If the first five years cost $4T, let's say that then next four years will cost a mere $3T.
I'm sorry, the American Express card is now maxed out at $4T. Better make it cash and carry.
You, mister mugwump voter, your boy in Iraq needs a new Humvee. How about if you pay for it directly, in cash? Just take out a third mortgage on your house. You say you're already in foreclosure? Well think of something else quick. Work nights at Wal-Mart or something.
Independent voters will vote their pocketbooks IF the pocketbook problem gets rubbed in their faces properly.
Everybody in Iraq is waiting for the U.S. to leave, proving that the average Iraqi militant is not quite as dumb as a fence post.
The total cost of the imperial occupation of Iraq will likely be $20 trillion after the right wing gets the mercenary army outfitted with the same VA disability benefits as the regular army. Instead of 2 million disability beneficiaries, there will be more like 4 million a decade from now, each costing the taxslaves $50k/year so that's $200 billion annually just to the VA. The total cost will be acknowledged gardually, starting with $3t acknowledged today, and another trillion added each ear until mid decade the total cost is acknowledged. Private economics and "public relations" contractors are fine tuning the propaganda to keep the the taxslaves running the ratwheels at a steady pace.
We need two or three more wars that cost as much as the Iraq invasion and occupation in order to change this country in depth and to cripple its global network of military bases and its military. Only from more wars will real change come to these shores and, by way of consequence, to the world as a whole.
Ideas, thoughts, facts, numbers, consequences, these things are all just part of a whining commie reality-based liberal political negativism that will lead to the terrorists winning.
The only way to be absolutely SURE you're gonna WIN is to have complete FAITH. Haven't you people turned on your TV's lately?
re: "uncertain" futures . . . It's clear that the rich will be getting richer, the poor poorer, that there will be more war, and vast ecological destruction. Consider, the resentment of the US and Israel by Arabs and Muslims generally: Al Qaeda is regrouping in Pakistan, look at conditions in Iraq (e.g. sanitation/sewage in the streets), and in the Occupied Territories. Consider also the fact that runaway global warming kicks in at 450 parts per million (atmospheric carbon). And that this may be too low: it may be 350 parts per million (see James Hanson on "Democracy Now" about a week ago, near the end of the interview). We're at 385 ppm now. If we build any more coal plants or use tar sands for oil, it's impossible to dream up a scenario where we keep from crossing "positive feedback loop" thresholds. The reaction of the rich will be to move from the coasts-- adapt. As for the global population-- people living on islands, or the coasts, or in the Southwest in the US or other arid areas, the results over time will be flooding, severe droughts, with cumulative effects (water "stress," etc., see Michael T. Klare's "Resource Wars," too, on this).
For the USA, a major effort to get out of the overseas basing/power projection, to invest in a conversion to a green economy is warranted. That will require taxing the rich way more, and devoting resources to economic conversion, and to the (vanishing) middle class (health care, other public goods). Given (a) that big money controls both parties and (b) liberals/progressives don't typically understand this, we can expect to see the following pattern in the US. First, progressives will win power when times get dramatically worse, but then they take half-measures at best. So you can expect President Obama to talk big about getting carbon emissions WAY down-- in 2050, and doing the easy half-measures while he's in office. Second, you can expect "conservatives" to win office based on the politics of fear, as progressives fail to turn the country around. Meanwhile, the real "Megatrends" (having to do with Peak Oil, Global Warming, US power-projection) will take hold more and more.
A grim future awaits. Civil disobedience, tax revolts, etc., are in order. Young folks who are pro-Obama should read and consider this (another option is get a law degree or whatever and live the apolitical good life).
Thanks to Stiglitz and Blimes for the wake up call ! They seem to get more coverage from media outside of America than they do in this nation of denial.
The American war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan may very well become a slow death for the American empire.
But if current war spending continues, Big Oil and the MIC will manage to prosper while the rest of the economy suffers, that is, if other countries are willing to continue purchasing our debt.
In short, our entire economy and legitimacy as a nation is being sacrificed to serve the neo-conservative dream of hegemony over the oil and gas resources of Iraq and Central Asia. This is imperial over-extension at it's worst and has become a case of endless public debt for private profit.
Arguably the damage done to date is even beyond the discussion of this article.
According to Stiglitz the sub-prime credit crisis developed as a complication of the cost of financing war. In a recent interview, Stiglitz explained, " The spending on Iraq was a hidden cause of the current credit crunch because the US central bank responded to the massive financial drain of the war by flooding the American economy with cheap credit." And now that policy has backfired.
From: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23286149-2703,00.html
The inter-related economic dominos effects have become astronomical as the American economic structure is imploding with job losses, tax revenue losses, inflation, stagflation, and with consumers now unable or unwilling to spend and keep the economy alive.
We are also not drawing international investment to our capital markets as we have in the past in addition to these complex conditions drastically weakening the dollar. International confidence in our economy is a very real factor. At the moment, American government and financial institutions look like a nasty bunch of incompetent criminals not to be trusted.
And another consideration is that if American aggression is ever brought before an international war crimes court, there will be trillions more in reparations owed to our victims. Etc.
Realization of this and many other depressing issues allows one to feel gratitude that one is well past life's mid-point, but extreme sorrow for one's offspring and their uncertain futures.
I heard this pair speak on one of the speech forums on NPR not long ago (to NPR's shrinking credit) - it was chilling, as is this article.
In the article, "How to Sink America," ( http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174884 ) Chalmers Johnson was quoted as saying, "Such expenditures are not only morally obscene, they are fiscally unsustainable. Many neoconservatives and poorly informed patriotic Americans believe that, even though our defense budget is huge, we can afford it because we are the richest country on Earth. Unfortunately, that statement is no longer true. The world's richest political entity, according to the CIA's "World Factbook," is the European Union. The EU's 2006 GDP (gross domestic product -- all goods and services produced domestically) was estimated to be slightly larger than that of the U.S. However, China's 2006 GDP was only slightly smaller than that of the U.S., and Japan was the world's fourth richest nation."
So, we have already lost much ground economically and are in a lot of debt. Debt is the main reason why the poor from third world countries clamor to come into the US and Europe by whatever means possible. Will there be a day when the poor from the impoverished United States will try to flee to richer countries by whatever means possible?
There is a quote that goes something like: "If something cannot be sustained, it won't be." It's time we as individual Americans realize that our nation is bankrupt. We need to take individual action to protect ourselves, our families, our communities, and our nation.