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TechnoratiThe Lessons of Basra
At the start of the military offensive launched last week into Basra by US-trained Iraqi army forces, President Bush called the action by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki "a bold decision." He added: "I would say this is a defining moment in the history of a free Iraq."
That's true--but not in the way the President meant it. As the smoke clears over new rubble in Iraq's second city, at the heart of Iraq's oil region, it's apparent that the big winner of the Six-Day War in Basra are the forces of rebel cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army faced down the Iraqi armed forces not only in Basra, but in Baghdad, as well as in Kut, Amarah, Nasiriyah, and Diwaniya, capitals of four key southern provinces. That leaves Sadr, an anti-American rabble rouser and nationalist who demands an end to the US occupation of Iraq, and who has grown increasingly close to Iran of late, in a far stronger position that he was a week ago. In Basra, he's the boss. An Iraqi reporter for the New York Times, who managed to get into Basra during the fighting, concluded that the thousands of Mahdi Army militiamen that control most of the city remained in charge. "There was nowhere the Mahdi either did not control or could not strike at will," he wrote.
The other big winner in the latest round of Shiite-vs.-Shiite civil war is Iran. For the past five years, Iran has built up enormous political, economic and military clout in Iraq, right under the noses of 170,000 surge-inflated US occupying forces. (For details, see my March 10 Nation article, "Is Iran Winning the Iraq War?") Iran has strong ties to Iraq's ruling Shiite alliance, which is dominated by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, whose militia, the Badr Corps, was armed, trained, financed and commanded by Iranians during two decades in exile in Iran. Since then, hedging its bets, Iran built a close relationship to Sadr's Mahdi Army as well, and Sadr himself has spent most of the time since the start of the US surge last January in Iran. In addition, Iran has armed and trained a loose collection of fighters that US military commanders call "Special Groups," paramilitary fighters who've kept up a steady drumbeat of attacks on American troops. Thus, it was no surprise when Hadi al-Ameri, the commander of the Badr Corps and a leading member of ISCI, traveled over the weekend to Iran's religious capital of Qom to negotiate the truce with Sadr that resulted in a shaky ceasefire in Basra.
That Sadr emerged victorious, and that Iran succeeded in brokering the deal that ended the fighting, is a double defeat for the United States. It is also a catastrophe for Maliki, and there is already speculation that his government could collapse. An ill-timed offensive, poorly prepared and poorly executed, resulted in an embarrassing defeat for Maliki.
Why was the offensive launched in the first place? By all accounts, Maliki, his faction of the ruling Islamic Dawa party, and ISCI intended to crush Sadr in Basra for reasons both political and strategic. Political, because Sadr's movement is positioned to register a massive win at the polls in Basra and throughout southern Iraq in provincial elections scheduled for October, an electoral defeat that would portend the end of the Dawa-ISCI regime. Strategic, because Basra is the economic engine of all of Iraq. The city controls Iraq's South Oil Company, which pumps and exports the vast majority of Iraq's oil--and for years Basra has been under the control of militias loyal to Sadr and to a Sadrist splinter party, the Fadhila (Virtue) party. By controlling the Oil Protection Force, a quasi-military force, and through its own militia, Fadhila is an important player in Basra, too, and Basra's governor is a Fadhilist. Though Fadhila has had its own clashes with Sadr's Mahdi Army, Fadhila kept its powder dry in the recent fighting, and there is no doubt that Fadhila is a bitter opponent of the Dawa-ISCI alliance. Last year, Maliki tried to oust the governor of Basra, Mohammed al-Waeli, who defied Maliki and refused to step down.
Maliki, miscalculating badly, flew to Basra last week from Baghdad to personally oversee the assault on Sadr's forces. In so doing, he staked his prestige on the offensive. If indeed it has failed, Maliki has lost face. That the ceasefire ending the fighting was worked out in Qom, Iran, and mediated by Tehran, is doubly embarrassing for him.
But it's far worse for the United States. President Bush strongly backed Maliki since the Battle of Basra started. According to Steve Hadley, the president's national security adviser, the decision to act in Basra was taken jointly between Washington and Baghdad. And US air power and even some ground units supported the floundering Iraqi forces, whose weakness and incompetence were revealed for all to see. After five years of massive US training and equipment, the Iraqi armed forces weren't even able to take control of Iraq's second-largest city.
Adding to Bush's utter humiliation, the Iranian-negotiated truce was mediated by the commander of the so-called Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Qassem Suleimani, who brought Sadr's representatives together with Hadi al-Ameri, the Badr Corps commander and the leading aide to Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim, the ISCI leader. The Quds Force, you will recall, was only last year designated as a "terrorist" entity by the US government. So President Bush's "defining moment" is this: the head of an Iranian "terrorist" force has brokered a deal between the two leading Shiite parties in Iraq, Sadr's movement and ISCI.
Robert Dreyfuss, a Nation contributing editor, is the author of Devil's Game: How the United States Helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam (Metropolitan). Read his blog, The Dreyfuss Report, here.
Copyright © 2008 The Nation
29 Comments so far
Show AllI think yap has a point.
Sadir is so powerful, he may be useful to the U.S., we just need to buy him off; we think.
In a word allthumz - no. Some relatives here that routinely listened to and admired Rush Limbaugh now say they listen to NPR all the time. I tried NPR but didn't appreciate being taken for a fool.
What the author meant to say is "it's far worse for the american populace at large", because a humiliated and cornered Bush administration is a viper looking to strike out blindly. Be afraid, be very afraid. -captn72
Ah yes but will the American populace recognize the viper's strike for what it really is?
That is what makes me afraid.
I understand that many here would like to see Sadr go down, he has fought and killed US military troops. He also is doing exactly what many of us would do if we were invaded as his country was. Looking beyond the demonization talk of the bushies, Sadr is fighting in opposition to the privatization of his countries natural resources. The Iraq government of Maliki is following the prescribed course of the neo-cons, as laid out by Paul Bremer, to sell out the country through privatizing of energy, think oil, as well as other sectors of the country. I find it hard to hate the man for fighting for his country, we used to call them patriots when they fought for our freedom here.
I think you Americans have missed the point that Al Sadr has made, he has just announced to the Americans that it is not with Al Malaki who the USA ought to deal with but with the NEW GOOD OLE SADDAM, HIMSELF !
I dare wager that even as we speak, the USA has agents negotiating with Al Sadr for the replacement of Al Malili. Like what Condi has so succinctly put "THE USA HAS NO PERMANENT ENEMIES NOR FRIENDS".
Soon you wull have if Allah is willing A NEW GOOD OLE SADDAM !
From Kipling:
"When your'e wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Just roll to your rifle, and blow out your brains.
And go to your God like a soldier."
Oh! yes the Mahdi who according to Kipling were the only ones to break the British square. Now they'll break the American neck and Bush will have no alternative but to expand the terrorism into Iran to cover the defeats in Iraq.
Oh come now. Not a road killed 'possum.
More than likely the skull from one of the fallen 4000 he has smuggled back to the US in the dead of night...
I have been reading in various places that the Mahdi Army fighters are parading in both Basra and Baghdad today in formations of new armored Humvees that were turned over to them by the Iraqi Army and Police.
So while Maliki offers money for heavy weapons and Muktada replies that they have no heavy weapons the truth on the ground is that the fighting became a cover for the Iraqi army and police who sympathize with Muktada to turn over the heavy and other weapons they have been armed with by the U.S. to Muktada's forces.
I read statements from Mahdi army commanders thanking the Iraqi soldiers for turning all their weapons over to them. According to one report, some of the statements were given by Mahdi commanders grinning proudly from behind the wheel of new Humvees.
No wonder Muktada was so happy to "surrender" and call a cease fire.
With victories like these Bush could stand a few "defeats." But he is too busy out behind the White House rolling his eyes suspiciously while gnawing on the skull of a road killed possum, just like back in Crawford, except back there he gets to eat the entrails before the crows get to them.
"I love to snort the shit as it squirts out through my teeth and lips."
Get something straight. Bush doesn't 'feel' humiliation.
Normal people feel humiliation. Bush makes a joke of hand wringers and pointy headed geopolitical policy wonks. His serene demeanor at State of Union addresses where he baldly lies to both houses of congress and the American people. Get over making Bush a rational player. Events of the past week are right in the Bush/Cheney wheelhouse. Blame Iran.
Then bomb Iran. Then suspend US elections under heretofore unexamined provisions in the Patriot Act, etc. etc. The idea of writing essays portraying Bush as a rational player who might experience humiliation. Please. If I wanted comedy and satire I'd go to the comedy channel web site, not common dreams.
These aren't the lessons of Basra that the media are teaching the public. I heard an NPR report today that simply said that the violence subsided "after the Iraqi government crackdown." That kind of suggests a cause-effect connection between the "crackdown" and the decrease in violence, even thougb that's extremely misleading, doesn't it?
bush wants instability in iraq (as well as the middle east) but it has to be the RIGHT KINDA OF INSTABILITY) meaning ....i only want those factions that support WESTERN OIL COMPANIES TO get rid of the factions that don't !
Yes, one doesn't have to make a hero of the Chinese Communists to mourn the killings of Iraqis (and others) and the destruction of their civilization(s) by Bush, Cheney and others safely here at home.
Good article. Unfortunately, Bush can't be humiliated because he has no shame.
"he Mahdi Militia reminds me of our own Great Helmsman, Mao Tze Tung and his and the PRC wars against the Japs & the USA"
Chinese propoganda it seems is almost as odious as American patriotism ! The real comparison in the current context would be how well an armed Tibetan resistance will fair against Chinese occupation.
What is happening now in Iraq is the coming to life warning contained in Frank Herbert's masterwork "Dune".
"Dune" told the story of a desert dwelling people living under a brutal regime that was murdering them and stealing a substance vital to the ruling empire. But the native were able to pin the invaders down in their bases, had total popular support of the local population, and eventually defeated and overthrew the empire.
Frank Herbert warned of the use of 'desert power', saying it was greater than any army or air force.
It would seem that recent history is proving him right...
I really appreciate Mr. Dreyfuss bringing clarity to what is an extremely complex situation, complete with shifting alliances and deals between the various parties. American policy does not take an adequate account of such detailed, complex factors. Consequently, American policy has remained incoherent and ineffective.
This is why the hamfisted "no surrender, onward to victory" mindset of John McCain and others is so amazingly stupid. Every action America has taken in Iraq to solve one problem consistently creates a host of others. To continue on that path for years to come is perfectly insane.
Seems to me the US military is not in control of the situation there, just following Maliki's lead or reacting to Sadr. How can the US be effective if it is not in control of its own cause?
"But it's far worse for the United States. President Bush strongly backed Maliki since the Battle of Basra started. According to Steve Hadley, the president's national security adviser, the decision to act in Basra was taken jointly between Washington and Baghdad. And US air power and even some ground units supported the floundering Iraqi forces, whose weakness and incompetence were revealed for all to see. After five years of massive US training and equipment, the Iraqi armed forces weren't even able to take control of Iraq's second-largest city." -
What the author meant to say is "it's far worse for the american populace at large", because a humiliated and cornered Bush administration is a viper looking to strike out blindly. Be afraid, be very afraid.
Long live the Chairman and his defeat of Japanese Imperialism and Long Live Chairman Sadr and his defeat US imperialism.
(Can the empire go on forever???)
...."it's apparent that the big winner of the Six-Day War in Basra are the forces of rebel cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army faced down the Iraqi armed forces not only in Basra, but in Baghdad, as well as in Kut, Amarah, Nasiriyah, and Diwaniya, capitals of four key southern provinces"
quote from above.
The shame of defeat was not only that of the so called "Iraqi Army" trained and equipped by the USA but also the direct participation of the British & American army of occuption. The American led attack on the Mahdi Militia is another shameful demonstration of the ineptitude of western forces (US & British), in spite of all the modern weapons of air-power, fire power and naval power and all kinds of power, the campaign to root out the Mahdi Militia of Al Sadr has failed miserably.
The Mahdi Militia reminds me of our own Great Helmsman, Mao Tze Tung and his and the PRC wars against the Japs & the USA supported KMT. The KMT with the support of FDR (firs power, air-power and naval power)campaigned to destroy the PRC AFTER THE PRC DESTROYED THE JAPS. Our Great Mao with no weapons except for the weapons which the PRC snatched from their enemies, fought against a KMT that was supplied by the Americans with every thing.
At the start of the civil war KMT had a 4 million men army, while Mao & PRC had only 75,000 and no arms execpt what they can salvage from the defeated KMT. What is worse was at the end of the LONG MARCH, the communist army was reduced to about 8,000 men against the KMT with 4 million men army. To cut a long story short, Mao defeated the KMT and the Americans in just over 2 years.
I think what has developed in Iraq and the fortunes of the Mahdi Army, HISTORY will repeat itself. In the American choice for their proxy, Al Malaki, there are astounding similarity with the Generalissimo Chiang, total incompetance ! The war in Iraq is more of the same, a defeated USA that won't admit defeat.
I was thinking the same; what about Sadr?
Why don't we have his head on a poster?
Would the people revolt if a drone blew him up?
We seem to target everybody we don't like!
Why not Sadr?
Not exactly a good example of democracy when we are militarily supporting one militia against another in order to arrange the political landscape the way we want it before provincial elections are held.
I am just SO glad that "The Surge" has worked out so well.
"Adding to Bush's utter humiliation, the Iranian-negotiated truce was mediated by the commander of the so-called Quds Force"
This is the nicest thing ive read all day. Bushs utter humiliation is a source of joy for millions ... count me in.
If I am correct, it is interesting to note that neither the US nor Iraqi governments have declared Muqtada al-Sadr a terrorist. Yet he commands an organization that could be accused of fomenting terrorism in Iraq. Now al-Sadr colludes with Iran.
Branding al-Sadr (and his organization) as terrorist would certainly flame the fires.
Don`t worry, be happy!! We are making good progress as usual and success with honor is just around the corner. Bush and Cheney are protecting us so we will not have to fight them over here.
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson
" If we get chased out of Iraq with our tail between our legs, that will be the fifth consecutive Third-world country with no hint of a Navy or an Air Force to have whipped us in the past 40 years. "
and worth reviewing:
" It's sad. But what's really sad is it never got weird enough for me. I moved to the country when the boat got too crowded. Then I learned that President Nixon had been eaten by white cannibals on an island near Tijuana for no good reason at all. Golly, you hear a lot of strange and unnatural things about the world these days. Lazlo and Nixon are both gone now, but I don't think I'm going to believe that. Not until I can gnaw on their skulls, because it still hasn't gotten weird enough for me. "
Hunter S. Thompson