EU Told To Prepare for Flood of Climate Change Migrants
Global warming threatens to severely destabilise the planet, rendering a fifth of its population homeless, top officials say
In its half-century history, the EU has absorbed wave upon wave of immigrants. There were the millions of political migrants fleeing Russian-imposed communism to western Europe throughout the cold war, the post-colonial and "guest worker" migrants who poured into western Europe in the boom years of the 1950s and 60s, the hundreds of thousands who escaped the Balkan wars of the 90s and the millions of economic migrants of the past decade seeking a better life.
Now, according to the EU's two senior foreign policy officials, Europe needs to brace itself for a new wave of migration with a very different cause - global warming. The ravages already being inflicted on parts of the developing world by climate change are engendering a new type of refugee, the "environmental migrant".
Within a decade "there will be millions of environmental migrants, with climate change as one of the major drivers of this phenomenon," predict Javier Solana and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU's chief foreign policy coordinator and the European commissioner for external relations. "Europe must expect substantially increased migratory pressure."
They point out that some countries already badly hit by global warming are demanding that the new phenomenon be recognised internationally as a valid reason for migration.
The immigration alert is but one of seven "threats" that the two officials focus on in pointing to the security implications and the dangers to European interests thrown up by climate change.
Their report, the first of its kind to be tabled to an EU summit - opening on Thursday in Brussels - amounts to a wake-up call to the governments of Europe, a demand that they start taking account of climate change and its impact in their security and foreign-policy decisions.
The main message is that the immediate and devastating effects of global warming will be felt far away from Europe, with the poor suffering disproportionately in south Asia, the Middle East, central Asia, Africa and Latin America, but that Europe will ultimately bear the consequences.
This could be in the form of mass migration, destabilisation of parts of the world vital to European security, radicalisation of politics and populations, north-south conflict because of the perceived injustice of the causes and effects of global warming, famines caused by arable land loss, wars over water, energy, and other natural resources.
Solana and Ferrero-Waldner paint a picture of a very bleak and very messy new world order which may undermine the UN system.
"The multilateral system is at risk if the international community fails to address the threats. Climate change impacts will fuel the politics of resentment between those most responsible for climate change and those most affected by it ... and drive political tension nationally and internationally."
This is not all futurology. The document points out that last year the UN's appeals for emergency humanitarian aid were all, bar one, connected to climate change.
As far as international security is concerned, the report finds, global warming makes a bad situation worse.
"Climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier which exacerbates existing trends, tensions and instability," Solana and Ferrero-Waldner say. "The core challenge is that climate change threatens to overburden states and regions which are already fragile and conflict-prone. The risks include political and security risks that directly affect European interests."
The report highlights several forms of conflict that are likely to be driven by the planet heating up:
· "Reduction of arable land, widespread shortage of water, diminishing food and fish stocks, increased flooding and prolonged droughts are already happening in many parts of the world," Solana and Ferrero-Waldner say. Fresh water availability could fall by up to 30% in some regions, causing farming losses, surging food prices and shortages, and civil unrest. "Climate change will fuel existing conflicts over depleting resources."
· Around one-fifth of the planet's population inhabits coastal zones which are threatened by rising sea levels and natural disasters. The Caribbean, central America and the east coasts of China and India are most exposed. "An increase in disasters and humanitarian crises will lead to immense pressure on the resources of donor countries."
· The report notes that major land mass changes are expected in the course of the century from receding coastlines, meaning countries will lose territory, while desertification could have a similar effect. The result may be "a vicious circle of degradation, migration and conflicts over territory and borders that threatens the political stability of countries and regions".
· A similar result may be expected in failing states, where frustration and disenchantment breed ethnic and religious strife and political radicalisation.
· Competition for energy resources is already a cause of conflict. This may get worse, not least "because much of the world's hydrocarbon reserves are in regions vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and because many oil and gas producing states already face significant social, economic and demographic challenges."
Europe, the officials imply, needs to get its act together if there is to be any chance of managing the apocalyptic scenarios outlined. What the report does not say is that if demographics are any measure of potential power, Europe's task is that much harder.
The average European is currently aged 39 and Europeans, including Russians, make up some 11% of the world's population of 6.7 billion.
By 2050 that figure will have shrunk to 7%, with the average age of Europeans being over 47 and the elderly outnumbering children by more than two to one. A weaker Europe may have to cope with the challenges listed by Solana and Ferrero-Waldner, but environmental migrants may enlarge and rejuvenate its population.
Areas under threat
The Arctic
The speed of polar ice cap melting will have a large geostrategic impact, with conflicts likely over the vast new mineral resources that will become accessible, as well as the opening of new sea routes for international trade. Rival claims to the mineral wealth and shipping routes will challenge Europe's ability to secure its interests in the region.
Latin America
The Caribbean and central America are already badly affected by major hurricanes and extreme weather linked with El Niño. This will get worse, while weak governments will struggle to cope with social and political tension fuelled by climate change.
Africa
Particularly vulnerable because of its low ability to cope with climate change, which is already a factor contributing to the Darfur catastrophe and conflict in the Horn of Africa. Three-quarters of arable rain-fed land in north Africa and the Sahel could be lost. Some 5 million people in the Nile delta could be affected by land losses due to rising sea levels and salinisation by 2050.
Central Asia
Trouble ahead. The authoritarian regimes of the region will become increasingly important because of mineral wealth. But climate change means water shortages are already being felt. Kyrgyzstan has lost 1,000 glaciers over the past 40 years, while Tajikistan's glaciers have shrunk by one third. Farming and power generation are already being hit by water shortages.
Middle East
Water systems are already under intense stress, with around two-thirds of the Arab world dependent on water sources beyond their borders. Water supply might fall by 60% this century in Israel. Significant decreases expected to hit Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia, further destabilising the "vitally strategic region".
South Asia
Almost two billion Asians live within 35 miles of a coast and many of them are likely to be threatened by rising sea levels. Damage to farming will make it difficult to feed rapidly swelling populations. Another billion people will be affected by a drop in meltwater from the Himalayas. These vulnerable populations will also be exposed to an increase in infectious diseases.
© 2008 The Guardian
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29 Comments so far
Show AllT:R:O:L:L = Truth Reveals Our Little Lies
Better Elvis than some troll who is more OBVIOUS.
Chicken Licken (alias Henney Penny) Lives! He has been sighted right here. What next? An Elvis sighting?
rc:
There is no big secret to capturing CO2. The dry ice makers have been doing it for years, often from fermentation alcohol plants, but any smokestack will do. Not one yet at any coal fired generation plant, at least that I know about.
Next question. What do we do with it? Make CO2 time time bombs when the frozen or liquid CO2 warms up and escapes?
All I can say tinylotus is "hooga hooga wooga wooga!"
Bad monkeys, indeed....humans are a dead-end species....we never got out of the cave...so much potential ...so little time.
So what anyway?
How many of us really live with and for the Earth, rather than unthinkingly using its resources.
How many of us realise this is Heaven: here?!!
Truth is not enough; therefore why do we care if we ruin it, and now that we have, why should the majority of selfish zombies care if they live or die on Earth: when they don't live for it they don't live for themselves (unless of course someone has made a moon base nicer than Earth without my knowing).
I knew it, someone would show up and tell all that global warming was dead, it's a myth.
You say the anarctic ice cap is growing. That's strange to hear, because last month a gigantic rift broke open in an Anarctic ice shelf and it's larger, deeper and longer than the Grand Canyon. Your post is false propaganda, we are not entering an ice age, we should be but we aren't. It's the Arcitc melt however that is our major concern, or should be, that's where the methane is going to burp out into the atmosphere.
There are some who think the answer is vegetarianism. They do not think forward. Yes, if we all sat down and ate rice alone, we MIGHT be able to feed the current population. For now. And that still does not address the Climate Problem.
BUT EVEN THEN, ALMOST EVERYONE MUST BE STERILIZED or numbers will grow past this point too, as they have in India and China. If it is a monumental task just to feed the world now, how about when exponential growth blows past this point too? See the YouTube video "ARE HUMANS SMARTER THAN YEAST?' to see what I mean. Oh, and judging by the current crop of politicians and religious and business leaders, the answer is NO, humans are NOT smarter than yeast. They are DUMBER THAN YEAST.
The story of the waterlilies in the pond is this: given a doubling every day of the number of waterlilies from one specimen, how many days warning will you have until the pond is completely smothered with waterlilies? The answer: one, just one day, as half the pond becomes the whole pond. As overnight, the pond went from having a potential problem, to its utter demise due to exponential doubling.
Our pond is Earth, and it is now being smothered with human activity. In one century, population has sextupled. At this trend, the population will be 56 Billion by the end of this century. It won't be vegetables being eaten then, it will be dirt. Maybe it will have a name, soilianism, dirtan. More likely, the name will be Soylent Green. I hope you enjoy mud cookies with your cannibalism. Of course, Earth will be dead long before this amount of human growth happens.
Sadly, the refugees from the climate-blasted places mentioned in the article will be met with full force. People will kill so their own children can survive. If it comes to this. Let us strive to prevent it from coming to this by working to prevent climate change from happening. Otherwise, see www.planetextinction.com for the end results.
But our current presidential campaign leaves me with despair, as none of the hopefuls address this urgency, or any environmental issue at all, seriously. And neither do the debased MSM reporters, who act their clownish role as horserace touts, prostitutes to power, and celebrity gossips. These 'reporters' just wanna be on teevee. What they say is of no consequence. It's just time-killing blather between the commercials that enrich them.
So I guess we can kiss our worthless asses goodbye. And we will take life on Earth down with us. Earth will cease to be Earth and will be just another lifeless unknown pebble in a dead universe. Sad, pathetic, bad monkeys.
Good news for all the "global warming" folk in here. Global Warming is dead.
The antarctic ice cap is growing. We are now on the door step of ice age. Use commondreams search facility and find their hidden article about "ice age". It's quite enlightening.
It's the kind of article that should have been in the news like OJ, instead it's like OJ at dinner time.
Regarding the numnut who ate up the mass murderers propaganda, the UN saying there's not enough arable soil, that is a bogus report. The reality is there are too many meat eaters. The US diet requires 6 acres per person. The world average diet requires 1.2 acres per person. A vegetarian diet requires .6 acres per person and a vegan diet requires just .3 acres per person.
There is much waste, mostly by Americans, there's much graft by politicians and bureaucrats, there's greed as always by a few... There's also the ability to 15 times over demolish the surface of Earth which the greedy are controlling. Good luck yall.
Daniel Vincent Kelley
http://lamegame.name
My blog is down right now. Please check again sometime soon. Send me an email if you have a heart. Eat vegan, stop paying federal taxes to clear yourself of complicity with this vastly wasteful and murderous system of, for and by the greedy.
Oh dear. ___ Those little germs that eat methane were discovered in "Rotwunda", in a HOT, ACIDIC, geo-thermal area. That does not sound much like the Arctic and Siberian perma frost areas. Maybe they can be genetically altered in a dozen years or so, to thrive in the Arctic areas. Maybe they would also mutate someday and start eating any and everything on the planet. Sometimes science can do marvelous things, like killer bees, DDT, atomic bombs and triclorethelene.
It's the BLOB!!!!!!! The truth is, if we don't have a world wide, MASSIVE effort, to stop burning fossil fuels and do initiate a MASSIVE, world wide effort to promote the use of clean energy and start now. __ Right now, we humans are history.
James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute is still optimistic. If we can promote the 350 initiative and get the world galvanized around this issue, then we need not despair. Since no one knows where the point of no return lies, it behooves us to do our best to eat less meat, drive as little as possible, educate hers, write letters to our elected officials, and conserve energy by weatherizing our homes and demanding that CO2 sequestration begin immediately. There is a company in Tucson called GRT that can sequester CO2 out of thin air. They would harness geothermal power to capture the CO2 in the air. Humans should also begin an international tree-planting brigade that would plant and care for forests in the tropics. Why just the tropics? Well, trees grow year round and never drop their leaves like they do in temperate zones. Okay, people go out there and save yourselves and your young children, cousins, nephews, and neices. We should remember what Epicurus said, "ΜνημονευτÎον
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I've had the misfortune to have to spend some time in Greenland, at Thule AFB. __ Twice. I have never, ever, seen anything anyplace flying around Greenland like that photo pictured in this article. Look a those ice and snow bare, distant mountain peaks. Un-be-lievable.
Great views,___ a developer would go bat shit selling property there.
Yep, maybe. Maybe the tooth fairy will save us. Or maybe Paris Hilton is the secret, she's pretty smart. Rush Limbaugh may have the answer, he's a genius who knows it all.
Actually is is not just the Arctic methane that is already escaping into the atmosphere. There are also trillons of tons of it in the ocean's sea beds. It is safe there due to both water pressure and cold water. When the water warms a few degrees it burbles out. I fear we have already done it. We have had years of warning and nothing has been done to reverse the Co2 content in the atmosphere, which causes the greenhouse effect and the subsequent global warming.
maybe technology can save us!
some brilliant stroke of genius like an immediate global moratorium on fossil fuels for 10 years!
an arctic atmosphere processing system, or methane cloud capture for energy.
maybe we'll all be driving our cars and heating our over-sized houses with compressed methane.
Get a job with NASA and be the last human alive on the space station Spartacus. Take lots of beer and tobacco and some dried fruit and nuts. Maybe some old Elvis records.
Yep WTF, I hit the (B) instead of the (M) by bistake. It was 50 million sobe years ago that the animals died because the bethane burped.
Those little bugger germs they just found, how come they haven't been eating the methane for the past 50 millioon years? Or are they some germs our scientists developed? I'll read that link yu provided now ~Clubconnector~, thanks.
Hi ~Msgreco~, WTF don't like be very buch.
KEM PATRICK
Its not all doom and gloom, there is a small glimmer of hope.
Look at these links , a methane eating bacteria has been found....
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22808426-5001028,00.html
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Methane-Eating-Bacteria-Found-in-the-Icy-Arctic-Water-38414.shtml
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-12/uoc-hs120607.php
KEM PATRICK
It makes me sick to my stomach to see what this world has become, how we've failed to evolve. I'm researching methane gas, as you've mentioned. 50 billion or 50 million years ago, WTF, what does it matter now except to correct a number that won't do anything to save us. Why anyone would continue to procreate is beyond me.
I just read the same Wash. Post article (courtesy Verizon)as Phek-lar. It reports the models calculate warming will go on for some time even if we go carbon neutral, and concludes the world needs to have absolutely no excess GHG emissions by mid-century. It also reports Clinton and Obama support 80% reductions and McCain 60% by mid-century.
That is only 42 years, while we have new developments planned everywhere, Charlotte NC is still growing like a gigantic boom town, new coal fired plants are under construction... The annual CO2 increase 1984 - 2004 was around 1.8 ppm per year. It looks like its 2 ppm or more now.
An old friend gave me a new denial tactic the other day. I brought up the subject and his responses were things like "Oh, Really?", "Where did you hear that?", and "How interesting!" He was pretending it was all new, and it can't really be very serious because someone would be doing something about it! I know he doesn't live in a cave. He has two lovely teenage daughters, and he has their financial security well planned. With attitudes like this, we are going nowhere.
The glaciers in the Andes, Alps, Himalayas and elswhere that feed the rivers for agriculture, drinking water and hydroelectric are rapidly disappearing. They normally grow in the winter or rainy season and feed melt water during the summer or dry season. They can't if they disappear. People in Latin America are already giving up on dry land they can't irrigate and moving to the cities. Its already started. When they are starving they will head for the US unless we give them food. The only news is the hole is getting deeper every year.
Kem Patrick wrote: It's happend before, some 50 to 60 billion years ago when global warmng took place and it's happening again.
You mean 50-60M years ago, not billion. The Earth is a young 5B years old. The Paleocene-Eocene extinction of around 55M ago is interpreted as due to large methane gas release, based on a spike in the carbon isotope ratios.
Here I go again with more of my idiocy.
Something I've thought a lot about - don't really have much to do any longer but think -is why the mega-rich are so intent on adding ever more to their bank accounts when a fourth of them believe armageddon is just around the corner, and the other three-fourths have to know we're going to be getting gassed and/or drowned (which ever one reaches us first) in the not so distant future.
What else may be in the process of being built that we know nothing about?
With the US already paranoid about "illegal immigration", what will it do in the face of environmental migration?
The MIC is chortling with delight. Bring it on - GWB.
Some anti birth control idiot said all the people of the world could fit in texas--so send them all there!
Simple fact is, arguing for population control is seen as an attack on human rights.
You often hear about animal rights extremists, but the real devil on this planet are the human rights extremists and anti-Nature fanatics. These are the people who say its ok to pollute rivers, to release gmo crops, to overpopulate.
The China one child policy is likely to be stopped--and replaced with a 2 child policy for all. The rich pay a fine and can have as many as they want--the rural people do it anyway, and only the poor city people have to be forced to get abortions to ensure enforcement of the policy.
But this is like abortion, you cant easily control it. If someone wants to abort, they can. And if someone wants to have a child-its very hard to stop it unless you pass laws that ensure the kid will be exterminated after birth.
Humans dont have natural control mechanisms like other species. Its a runaway train.
Don't hold your breath looking forward to it ~PENSCOT~. Or actually, I guess we'd all better learn how to hold our breath. All of these discussions of ocean's water rising, climate change, food shortages, population migrations, over-population and birth control, polar bears dying off, etc are truly rather senseless right now.
There is ONE major looming disaster that will make ALL of those issues moot. The tundra or perma frost in the Arctic and Siberia are thawing out at an alarming rate. For at least fifty billion years, the perma-frost has insured that over 400 billion TONS of methane gas is safely locked up in the ice. When that methane gas burps out into our atmosphere, almost all life on this water world will cease to exist.
Don't wish to believe it? Doomsday alarmist? Suit yourself, but it is already occuring and there is not a single thing you or I can now do to prevent it. Those who insist Global Warming is a myth, or that it won't happen are both ignorant and stupid.
It's happend before, some 50 to 60 billion years ago when global warmng took place and it's happening again. Many believe it's a possible problem which may occur a hundred years or so in the future and humanity has plenty of time to stop using fossil fuels and reverse the global warming. Eat, drink and make merry. ___ Well, Merry is going to die too.
The plain truth is, we may have TEN years or less, we may have twenty years or more. I'd bet on the ten years or less. My wild imagination and opinions? __ Nope. __ Google arctic methane gas and read any of the thousand or more articles which are well written by qualified atmospheric scientists, geologists, etc. __ Or, listen to world government leaders, mouthy Rush Limboooos and brain dead trolls who frequently blog here and who know it all.
What really gets me about this whole situation is the timing of the big push by the fruit cakes for an end to birth control.
We (all countries) are going to be hard-pressed to feed the world population as it is, and yet if these fruits have their way, we'll be adding millions or billions more mouths to feed - when so many will end up floating face down in the floods - like those poor people in N.O. did.
But thankfully we can count on these fruits to be there fighting to save the long-time brain dead.
Here's a business proposition for you all...
Carbon offsets got ya down? Worried about how we're going to reduce emissions to levels mandated by the Kyoto accords?
No worries. According to this study in the Washington Post, we'd have to take society back to the 19th century in order to have any effect on global warming:
"The task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures may be far more difficult than previous research suggested, say scientists who have just published studies indicating that it would require the world to cease carbon emissions altogether within a matter of decades.
Their findings, published in separate journals over the past few weeks, suggest that both industrialized and developing nations must wean themselves off fossil fuels by as early as mid-century in order to prevent warming that could change precipitation patterns and dry up sources of water worldwide.
Using advanced computer models to factor in deep-sea warming and other aspects of the carbon cycle that naturally creates and removes carbon dioxide (CO2), the scientists, from countries including the United States, Canada and Germany, are delivering a simple message: The world must bring carbon emissions down to near zero to keep temperatures from rising further."
One might think horse and buggy manufacturers would be thrilled with this news. And you can tell your children to get their heads out of those business administration books and take up blacksmithing for a career.
Just think of all the things that will be making a comeback as a result of our ending industrialized civilization. Draft horses will no longer be simply pulling beer wagons. They'll be plowing fields and harvesting crops. In fact, horse breeding will probably be huge. Best get in on the ground floor there.
No more airplanes (or airports thank God) so the reintroduction of the steam engine seems logical. In fact, buy stock in steam companies of all types. Hopefully, we'll have that tiny problem with boiler explosions figured out before then.
Any Takers?
Something else to look forward to. Pre WW1, the ability to move between nations was pretty much just a matter of knowing the language.
If nations in the south pacific, like New Zealand, are taking in migrants whose nations have gone submarine, the rest of us are going to have to get used to the idea of doing it as well.
And the countries with the widest open spaces are going to have to open up the most.
I DO look forward to eating Bangladeshi meals in Wyoming... or drinking taro in Nevada
Everyone has a solution to the global warming problem.
The Republicans bury their heads in the sand and say "There is no problem".
The religious person clutches the little book and says "God will take care of it".
The leaders of the "less pollution" countries point their fingers at the "more pollution" countries and say "They should cut down on their emissions".
Everyone has a solution that somebody else should follow. The common thread being "It's not MY fault".
Well it IS my fault. It's your fault. It's everyone's fault which makes it everyone's responsibility. We know we need to do something but what have we done? For most it's NOTHING. For some it's "a little". For the very few it's A LOT. I read from a poster on here about how he has changed his entire septic system to 100% water-free. I've read from another that only bikes to work now. These are the people doing "A LOT" to try to help the global warming situation. The cop-out is "well it's not me it's the factories". It's the old story about the single drops of water combining to make a raging river philosophy. I have done "a little" and I need to do more. (A lot more). We need to keep this in our minds constantly and work toward changes in our own lives. Hopefully we won't be to late.
The "news" here isn't that this is going to happen. It has in fact already started to happen, and was predictable based on our understanding of climate change. The "news" is that the issue is being recognized at high levels. If the issue becomes sufficiently widely recognized to allow resource allocations to deal with it, then perhaps in first-world countries the situation can be kept under control. We already know that third world countries are going to suffer. A recent UN report stated that the earth cannot sustain even its present population given available arable land. Climate change promises to reduce the arable land while forcing the existing population into smaller and smaller areas. If climate change continues on its present course, which seems likely based on all the information that we have at hand, then the future looks uninviting indeed.