did we really expect anything less?

Hope you have your water wings Florida.

If we manage to melt all of the Antarctica and Greenland icesheets, the resulting worldwide sealevel rise is close to 60 meters (that's 180 feet to those of you still using Imperial measurment).

Sure, ships might be able to cross the North Polar sea, taking weeks off the trip to get cheaply made toxic Chinese toys to American markets...

BUT THE PORT FACILITIES WILL BE UNDERWATER!!!

It becomes clear that the lag time of science to accurately report its findings is part of the problem of action and understanding. But even if the public had this data and were aware of the understanding that the planet was dying, the special interests in Washington and the corporate world would have scoffed at the science and continued to put future generations at risk by obfuscating the evidence and denying the truth. This science is now acceptable because the world has agreed that the findings of global warming are finally an inescapable and the truth.

Like Bali the USA has done its utmost to put profit, money and business before the well being of not only America but also the world. It has trained its little greed puppy Canada to do the same. The people that George Bush, the anti life president, has appointed to fill the American agencies as watchdog for pollution, greed, avarice, health and any other group of people who should be looking into the abuses of business, science and the military and protect the population are absent.

The time lag of a thousands years abut some sciences before the global human adventure ends or other science that talks about space exploration is mute when this kind of science affecting the oceans or anything else is measured by a decade left to take action as a result of climate change. When a lag of only ten years to reduce emissions is the time James Hansen of NASA puts out there all events other than that and Bali take a backseat. Because of economic consideration the human race will die! George Bush is a man for no human beings he is the president of the American Money printing press. If we are to avoid the positive feed backs loops, scoffed at because of economic reasons and based upon special interests. If we fail to look at the picture clearly, we face a catastrophe because of money alone. The acidity in the oceans is bad news not only for the life within the ocean but for the fact that it makes the ocean less able to absorb the excess carbon dioxide we are producing and thus exacerbates global warming and climate change.

The UN like most organizations is built around the G8 nations and economics. There formulations are designed to do two things try the save humanity and try to save the world economy at the same time. The problem is that Kyoto is problematic in that its policies promote continued pollution aimed at keeping the world economy afloat. If they were really interested at saving this planet the UN would do away with pollution trading altogether and institute a crash rapid change to alternative energy and an end to global toxicity. But politicians say, with business interests say, we don't give them the truth; we let them think, as all diplomats do, that we are really interested in change rather than profit, money and power. I have talked with delegates from the UN member nations and many of them have said to me privately, if they really said what some NGO's are saying at the UN they would be recalled and never have a job again.

Most public comments are very nice to hear they tell people what the powers want them to know with the help of the media they control. But like the Congress they also come down beside the point as most politicians do. Most comments from the present Congress and in the blogs avoid reality and don't deal with the issue head on. Most are still looking for the magic technological bullet or some disingenuous politician that will save all and we can continue on the way we are going with ever more growth and ever more and greater GDP as the bankers advise. Any candidate that does not talk about environmental issues first on the agenda, including Kucinich, betrays America and the world.

But there really isn't any quick fix. I am a filmmaker and have worked on the environmental change issues since 1978 so I have a fair amount of experience to speak. While LED light-bulbs is good and 40 MPG for cars is better it is not the at 80MPG minimum from vehicles that is necessary! It also requires the legislated refits for all existing cars to the minim of 40 MPG or more rather than exporting them to the developing world, which is presently being done. This will pick up speed as restrictions rise in the western world on carbon emissions and rejected in the third world. We continue to export the problem from the USA to other countries as if we don't share this world with other people. And while Jesse Jackson talks of the rights of black Americans of the world, his particular crusade, it's the people of the entire world at issue.

It was GE that killed the electric car not long ago who in Congress complained about that? Whether health care, big business, environment, energy alternatives, toxicity in the environment or any and all of these issues it comes down to who has the courage to talk about all of them rather than focusing on the head of a pin looking atone important issue. You want to hear about health care for America; how about the advance of environmentally based health problems by a toxic environment and air related pandemics. This is what we can expect from climate change in the next few years as global temperature rises. The candidates are discussing universal health care? Try one for the globe and all the sicknesses the policies of the USA have caused, three percent of the world's population the USA produces seventy three percent of global toxicity. You wonder where cancer comes from?

The people of the USA have been so ill informed as to what a change would really do and mean to this country and the change in leadership, they have forgotten that no one could be worse than George Bush. . . No one not even the dogcatcher, at least the dogcatcher has compassion for animals! The problems with the US future elders, is not Kucinich as president, the problem is that he puts his emphasis on the wrong problem at the wrong time. The problem is getting him to address a credible platform of ideas. He wants to get rid of Chenney the time was 2004. While impeachment is necessary, it is unlikely. There is not enough time and the issues most pressing are again avoided, like the environment and those really important issues before the congress now like kids health care!

The issue of this election will affect the environment, economy and the future of the USA as no others. Yet if more than 50% of eligible voters cast their votes it will be a miracle because of regressive US election laws. It is compulsory for every one to vote in Australia. None of the candidates are really talking about the major points, the environment in association with the economy or health care and reform laws for elections.

The environmental news coming out is not new but it is very grave and keeps being pushed to more urgency as new research comes to light. If any one reading this comment cares to look at the website of NASA, the research papers of James Hansen in particular that were published long before Gore was on the scene and many since, they would understand that we really can not deal with much more than one degree to two and half degrees Fahrenheit of warming at its maximum to ward off the most serious effects of industrial societies pollution and to offset this growing catastrophe.

At about two and half degrees Fahrenheit of warming total some of which is presently in the pipeline, we will be dealing with about 550 ppm of carbon in the atmosphere, a rate actually above the tipping point of one and half degrees warming. This is the absolute figure to avoid the major positive feedback loops that are starting and scheduled to kick in by 2020 or earlier if nothing is done quickly. Positive feedback is starting now with Methane now being released on the tundra into the atmosphere in Russia a four times addition to greenhouse gasses and causing the poles and glaciers to melt more rapidly, or has no one noticed?

The below scenario excerpted from the climate articles here on Common Dreams tell us clearly rapid changes to the world caused by runaway climate change and their feedback loops are in reach within 10 to 30 years if nothing is done rapidly. The positive feedback loops will melt the remainder of the glaciers and perhaps dump Greenland into the sea as well. Also, the melting of additional ice-shelf's at the poles. That means perhaps a 3 to 30 foot ocean rise by the end of this century or much sooner as now being mentioned at Bali.

The process is beginning now and in 20 years or less without rapid change in economic direction the human race will reach a point of no return. The so-called news and other media continue to bend the information toward the global economic agenda thus minimizing its importance. India for example is less concerned about climate change than they are about economic production thanks to the G8, although their neighbor Bangladesh is slipping into the sea. Still in India, there are several moves in the direction of smaller is better concepts of reality. There will be sufficient human displacement of people on this planet to bring American citizens into a nightmare scenario that makes the present Mexican border problem a walk in the park. What about the transfer of health risks as a result of this problem? Not to mention water and food related issues, exacerbated by the bio-fuels concept another disaster to make the auto industry solvent and the economy, always the economy.

Yet is seems the political discussion rests on the complete list of talking points in isolation, such as Clinton's health package and its cost, rather than what is really at stake which is human survival. These folks on the stage wanting to be president rarely talk to the complete interrelated package of all these issues and more. The media reduces the public debate to its most simplistic level and all here are arguing about one issue or another rather than the entire package, which a true leader must address. The media keeps the public dumbed down for obvious reasons they represent the money people. As a result we become unable to talk about moving radically to deal with climate change. This is the first and major issue, which affects all other issues and is completely related to economic change.

The world does not have (much later) before a more aggressive approach to all the issues beginning with climate change now! Remember New Orleans? Within next 10 to 20 years is where it all hangs. If nothing is done very soon it will mark the beginning of the end for the human race. Those appear to be the facts and no technology will stop runaway climate change once it begins, indeed if we look at the melting poles the worst case is much more apparent than formerly believed . . .it has already begun!!

Perhaps it might be too late now, according to James Lovelock, in his view it has begun. James Hansen at NASA makes a very compelling case for the time frame for action within the time in office of the next president of the USA and so does the UN. I think anyone who really wishes to be informed should go to the websites of these people mentioned here or the IPCC. It is technical information but worth taking the time to inform yourself. The answer is to start working quickly for change and vote for those candidates who speak of change and another direction and who represent ideas rather than special interests. For example the best work would be to defeat the pro-business Clintons and elect Kucinich or Obama or possibly a joint ticket while we know they have an outside chance they are the best possibility for change.

But we all know business interests will prevail with Clinton capturing the vote and a pro-business vote is a vote against the environment. No one running on the democratic side could be worse than Bush. But anyone who can think understands that the business interests control the environmental agenda and most candidates. The republicans will continue the work of burying the planet, as will pro-business democratic candidates most of whom have been bought, whether by health interests or anything else concerning big money. The fact concerning climate science is what is important. What the environmental facts really suggest is economic depression in the West in the near term if we really want to deal with climate change. THIS IS THE FACT! That is if we are really serious about saving the planet (no one wants to hear that if they are connected to big money) it means voting for economic and environmental legislation limiting pollution and green house gasses . . .in any event that is change!

But the environment, water, energy production these are the real issues of this election campaign of the world in peril or as my documentary states it „World On Edge" but no one would dare mention them in association with change in economic direction for fear of defeat. A redirection and a retooling of the global economy and of America is in order and that is not a popular issue on Wall street or people invested in Wall street . . .most everyone in one way or another. We have to change rapidly and move to a none-stop production of environmental invention and energy alternatives for the western world and developing nations rapidly. It also means rapid technology transfer for the developing world without delay; this may save us some time. A cut of 80% of the carbon emissions within the next 10 years is in order and it must be done beginning now and well on the way before 2012 the next date for Kyoto. Kyoto is a western world fabrication to tell us we can keep polluting while where figuring a way to deal with this crisis economically.

A change of the present direction of economic production and fast move in a different direction economically is required by anyone that can think and put simply in context of this crisis. The world is waiting for this move by the Americans and watch the dollar rise rapidly against other currencies once this plan would be announced if ever. This is why this upcoming American election is so critical and the results of it will determine whether the human race survives . . .. It is that important!

The economic change in direction could possibly reemploy a lot of people who have lost their work in the polluting industries. This is the challenge to America to remake itself after eight years of the Bush/Cheney regime. It is equivalent to a fight for survival that required the retooling of America at the outbreak of WW 2. It requires change in the so-called war on terror, a Bush fabrication advanced by the media which is a money centered mind conditioning creation and finally, it means leaving Iraq, and using those resources to fight the real enemy to survival, the western consumer, hydro carbon based, societies of the western world.

Who knows that might mean less of an investment in China and more of an investment the western world for a healthier environment? And the Chinese might follow that example as well. Which candidate will say this to America? Which candidate will really tell the truth? If they did they wouldn't have a chance in this election because Americans don't want to hear that! Any one having the courage to really tell the truth would find themselves on the next train to Siberia; they would be shouted down by the crowds of people on the stump and many on this blog people would shout the leaders down, saying what the hell do you know anyway? "This is too scary for me!" But the economy is the issues and that is determined by big business that wants the war in Iraq because it continues the hydrocarbon based industry, which all these young people were maimed and died to keep Santa Clause producing and the stock market humming. The illegal Bush-war that Kucinich wants to impeach Bush/Cheney for creating but takes us into another direction and one not well thought out. He is focused on the lies of Bush and big business rather than the future of the world.

The production of alternative energy will soak up the idle job market; indeed it is doing so now! With a shift to the priority of economic production and development directed at saving this world and its equilibrium, means in simple terms a crash economic change, which is vitally necessary, without that we are done. If any one thinks that we can continue with an oil economy and business as usual with a consumer based society, they are living in the world of denial which so much of the western world occupies. The below is a light message compared with what the truth really is: from UN sources of information!

"The world needs to spend 1.6 percent of global economic output annually through 2030 to stabilize the carbon stock and meet the 3.6-degree Fahrenheit temperature target. Rich countries, the biggest carbon emitters, should lead the way and cut emissions at least 30 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050. Developing nations should cut emissions 20 percent by 2050, the UNDP says."The above is letting you down lightly is really not what the actual projections are. The world crises will crash in on its regional global populations are what the information below is saying. There really is no place in this discussion for a 5.4 to 7.2 Fahrenheit degree rise in temperature . . .. This scenario painted with the numbers below is a different planet closer to Mars not Earth. The news media play with numbers like the lottery. We can tolerate one degree and perhaps two and half degrees warming at the outside, . . .in the next 50 to 90 years . . .that's it!!!!! An additional 3 degrees to four degrees Fahrenheit is three more degrees greater than this climate and its creatures can sustain or endure without collapse!! This quoted from the recent UN assertions here in Common Dreams and from the real information by scientists not political organization quote:"A temperature rise of between 5.4 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (3 and 4 degrees Celsius) would displace 340 million people through flooding, droughts would diminish farm output, and retreating glaciers would cut off drinking water from as many as 1.8 billion people, the report says." this is an understatement and conservative.

The above report is economically associated and conservative as well as misleading!!! Forget this idea of 5.4 to 7.2 Fahrenheit of warming that is the Martian landscape because it allows for the runaway positive feedbacks to take hold. Whomever believes this world can sustain this degree of warming is either working for the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank or is gathering this information from the laboratory at XXON/Mobile or its publicists!!?????? Meanwhile the group here is discussing who will give us better health care on a dying planet and impeachment of Bush a good way to avoid dealing with the truth. We can be suspect of anyone who says they have the truth. The need for understanding this current cast of characters wanting to be president is important. None of this group has the faintest idea of what we are really dealing with in terms of global warming numbers concerning the environment, and if they did they would not tell the public. Their experts, the lawyers who can only think of big business, advise them. They know it's bad and their advisers are telling them they can't deal with this issue to get elected by the masses.

The masses? Unless you have not heard, these are the people above who are worrying where their next bag of groceries comes from and the money to pay the rent! They really don't give a damn about the environmental issues. . And have no time for thinking about 10 to 20 years from today that has no realty attached to it for most Americans or the rest of the four and half billion people on this Earth in the same situation . . ..Or, for the rest of the population working for and controlled by big business and big money . . .that is what this election is really about and if one thinks about the complexity of all these interrelated issues we know that we cannot beat the odds business will win. That means the future for humanity is limited even for the one percent that has everything.

Sure elect Edwards, Obama, or Kucinich or any combination of most of these Democrats that are not funded by big business for this election. This is the reality of this time we still live, on this, still beautiful planet. As always, it is the Bush nightmare that suspends and forestalls human action forward. If there was a single problem for this world in the past eight years it has been this throwback from the Jurassic period that occupies the Black House in Washington and the Capital Black Dome steeped in the blood of untold millions in this world both present and future. How much I like the call to optimism, to human adventure and responsible action. It rings like the bell of the angels and like so many I am happy for your optimism out there. More people at Bali should get your vibes and act responsibly. Having said that I have written here on the problem and tried often to get the powers to be accept we have a really serious problem. I work at the UN and UNESCO in Europe.

I loathe the establishment because my concerned friends it comes down to vested interests, greed and the economy as so many know here. I am afraid that we have lost this little game of truth or consequences. But if the truth really were known, the power elite and the one percent who have everything and own everyone really don't care if some three billion people on this globe perish. This is the reality of the circumstances of this situation of climate change and its results, my friends, the carbon producing industry want to burn every resulting carbon atom they can release, the atomic energy plants will continue mining uranium and the horrendous amounts a carbon produced to provide the fuel and the last tree in the Amazon will be cut as well as every other rain forest.

Most democrats are what moderate republicans used to be. There is no such thing as reason at the court of Alice in Wonderland. It is time for a new congress and a new party. A three party system would not hurt and the Green Party has a platform of survival with Climate change at the top of the list that affects every issue on the table today and focuses on Wall Street which I have no doubt most of the people writing here are invested. A person's faith or belief system has nothing at all to do with well thought out content. The content of this article looks carefully at the problem of US economic world hegemony. What is said is correct as I see it. However, to change this direction would require a one-day strike of all systems on the globe.

Someone, please tell me what police forces would allow shut down, or the military, or any other service that sees to it that the society and its people continue to do what they are told. As I look at the problem the natural forces that are gathering exclusive of any human control, other than there creation of attempted control of nature and that will not stop. All this will decide how the world rights itself or if it rights itself after most life is extinguished. But it will take many thousands of years in any case. The probability of life renewing itself is dependent upon how severe the human interference of the natural systems of this planet are and later become and how severe the positive feedbacks loops will be!

The possibility of a Martian environment is happening. We want to explore Mars . . .it is not necessary for we have the beginning of the process here. But the systems devised to explore Mars are being developed. The time for survival in that kind of environment have not been sufficiently developed for extended life. But think of it there are people who care to exist in that way and willingly put themselves in that environment as a way of life. Technology still reigns supreme.

Take heart there will be some means of living for a while for some regardless of how difficult it becomes. It has been said by many there are too many people on this planet in any case. What matter to those persons if four fifths of the population perishes? „We can learn too from our elders. They remember a time when "disposable" wasn't part of our lexicon, when we lived with far less but family and community were the keys to happy, fulfilled lives. Ever since the end of World War II when the transition from a war economy to a peace economy was made by making consumption a North American way of life, we have been caught up in the notion that life is all about having more stuff, though every indicator shows that greater material wealth does not mean greater happiness and fulfillment. Most people in the world grew up in this time of unprecedented growth and change, so to them, this is normal and must be sustained at all costs. And since more and more of us live in cities, our understanding of our biological dependence on clean air, clean water, clean energy and other living things becomes subsumed by the notion that the economy is the source of everything that we need. I was told by the Alberta environment minister years ago that without a strong growing economy, we couldn't afford to protect the environment. So even the environment minister saw the economy as a higher priority than the very things that keep us alive and healthy."

I have been following these kinds of reperts now for the past few years.

The scientists who compile these reports now say that their worst case scenarios aren't even close to what is going to happen. The data now being collected shows that the worst case scenarios the scientists predicted would be a walk in the park compared to what is going to be coming our way.

Hay THUD, you sound like a real swell person, but you don't think with any logic. You also didn't reply to the important issues posted here by PIPPIN, SNYDLY OR BIDELO. Now there is some logical thinking. Dem guys are smart. I'm bald Bidelo, married a dumb blond when I was 19. __ She's pretty too.

ike kay Can you repeat that?

What about Global Colding ?
http://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html

Hi Galen. We can build ports in Hatboro, Penn, Las Vegas, Nevada and Little Rock, Arkansas. Think of the millions of construction jobs that will create to boost the economy.

Galen-every time the experts forecast a worst case scenario, they come back soon after and say they were too conservative in their scenarios based on new data.

We're taking our kids to Glacier National Park this summer so they can see them before they're gone. My husband works in the environmental field and I do loads of volunteer work in that arena, so my children are going to be more educated than many of their peers and less traumatized by the coming changes b/c they think rain barrels, composting, gardening, walking and biking to destinations, and really thinking about purchases etc. are NORMAL.

Hey KEM.

Vegas is landlocked. They pipe water in to drink as it is. And has to be one of the most insane places to build a major city in the first place. I know. I've been there.

On a related note, during the recent Bali Climate Conference, the scientists of the world said we have less than five years to do something drastic to ensure baseline human survival.

Read that last sentence again.

You know what the US and Canada's reaction was to that warning?

Calling for the creation of a study panel to assess the feasbilty to launch a commision to futher research future findings.

The surest sign of insanity is repeating the same action and expecting a different outcome each time.

The US and the world economy, as much as economists optimisticly hope otherwise, is headed down the drain. Oil and other consumable resouces are running out, and Bush just begged OPEC to increase output again. OPEC has been running at capacity plus for the past ten years anyway, trying to meet the West's insatiable demand. Three weeks ago it was quietly announced that demand for oil had exceeded world supply, and would continue to do so.

We just passed Hubbard's Peak. Exactly as he predicted. The resource wars he also predicted are well under way, and the opening bombing runs against Iran are only a few months away I would bet.

global colding? Leave it to the republicans to find a couple of astrophysicists to help them feel better.

Recycle 1: Same here.

I use public transit as a choice, and bike in the summer (I live in Canada).

It's WAY past time to start living close to the ground. The recent movement of the 100 mile diet is a good place to start. Let's carry on by restarting the tradional kitchen or Victory garden of days gone by. And teach every child in school how to use basic hand tools safely, and how to perform basic repairs on household items. Teach them all to sew by hand and knit, and darn socks.

Hi Galen. I was being facetious, it really isn't funny at all. And when the methane gas "burps" in the Arctic because of the global warming, we are going to be very sorry we didn't listen to people like Jacques Costeau.

That scientist among many others, warned us over forty years ago, that if we didn't stop burning fossil fuel and defray the use of atomic energy, and instead develop clean renuable energy sources, such as solar, geo-thermal, tidal and wind power, we humans would kill the planet. __ We didn't listen.

KEM: How's the garden plan coming? I'm moving soon, and will have to basicly use nothing but Mel Bartholomew's 'Square Foot Gardening' exclusively for the forseeable future.

But I have also recently taken to carrying a basic emergency kit at all times, and am outfitting a general 'bug-out' kit for my lady and her kid's as well as myself.

To Galen, others.

As far as your comment goes:

"If we manage to melt all of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, the resulting worldwide sea level rise is close to 60 meters (that's 180 feet to those of you still using Imperial measurement)."

With all due respect there seems to be too much misinformation regarding the effects of so-called global warming.
Here are a few hard facts so that we do not propagate erroneous and paranoid ideas:

1. The approximate mass of all ice in Arctic/Antarctic can easily be looked up. One can ignore the mass of glaciers in the mountains as their mass is insignificant compared to the above masses. The approximate volume of all oceans is also known. A simple calculation would inform you that were all of the polar ice masses to melt the world oceans will rise 32-36 cm, not 60 meters as you claimed-such figure is sheer nonsense and physical impossibility.

2.January 2008 happens to be the point mid-way between the two ice ages (last one 14,000 years ago, next one 14,000 years from now). It is also the point in time that the Northern hemisphere is the closest to the sun in the 28,000 year cycle.

3. It takes 80 Kcal to melt ice at zero degrees to water at zero degrees. Then it takes one kcal per degree per kilogram. Another simple calculation would inform one that the heat required to melt ice from about -50 degrees to water at some 8-12 degrees is substantial, to say the least. Where would this heat come from?

4. Another common misconception is that man-made CO2 is responsible for global warming (i.e., greenhouse effect and all that). The worst greenhouse gas is WATER! Not to mention bromine produced by blue algae. One can look up infrared absorption energies for all these quite easily.
No amount of man-made CO2 can ever alter the water cycle.

To sum it all up, mankind is, of course stupid enough to destroy itself in a variety of ways, but I fear that our presence on this planet cannot alter the natural cycles of warming and cooling. The entire debate about global warming is politicized (for what gain, I am not sure) and designed to spread yet more fear through uninformed population.
The only way out of any problem is through cautious analysis, not emotional misinformation of masses.

Cheers,
THUD

As Carlin said: "the planet is fine, it's the people that are the problem".

Well Galen, we have a wonderful garden. This last year however, there were no bees or any other pollinating inscets at all. We didn't harvest anything for canning, freezing or drying. We have millions of oak trees in our area of the valley and NO acorns at all. The javalina, squirrls, foxes and deer are suffering, we seldom see any anymore.

We bought a two year supply of dried food at Cosco, a $120 container will feed a family of four for a year. It's a bit like the military, meals ready to eat, MRIs. We also stocked up on vitimans, aspirin, toilet paper and animal traps, emergency candles from the dollar store etc. I sure hope we don't ever need it, but I see a depression hitting us before the high water and methane gas does.

Sorry THUD, but your opinions do not agree in any manner with over 2,500 scientists, dedicated people who have spent their entire adult lives studying the enviroment. The Arctic and Anarctic ice core samples prove beyond any reasonable doubt, that indeed, the global warming issue is caused by burning fossil fuels and that began in ernest, when our industrial age reared its ugly head some 200 years ago.

We had the chance and still do, to use clean energy and we blew it. The big money was in coal and uranium and we allowed the mega corporations to rule us. So take off with your opinions THUD, the nickname for the F-105 fighter bomber, __ which also was a dud.

KEM: Sorry to hear about the bees. No doubt victims of Colony Collapse Disorder.

And kudos on the emergency planning. I hope you and I will never have to use what we have squireled away.

I wonder what Thud will do, when he (or she) is caught by the rising waters, shortage of drinking water, and general economic collapse that is surely coming. Eat their SUV? Turn to the nearest technophile/global warming denier and scream 'DO SOMETHING!'? Or just wait in mute resignation for government aid ala Katrina that will never com?

This was on CBC last nite:

[http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/01/15/science-beaufort-ice.html]

it seems that part of the ARCTIC ice pack has taken it upon itself to break apart in mid-winter! I'll take even money that the arctic ice pack is 100% gone next september.

John Edwards is the ONLY candidate who is for clean energy and will work to fund it and he does not support nuclear power either.

So far, our government has given nuclear energy over $150 billion and clean renuable energy proigrams have recieved less than four billion.

We'd better all hope you lose that bet "Gotta get off". Fraid you may win though.

There are over 20,000 specie of bees Galen, we didn't have any of them, it wasn't just commercial honey bees that disappeared in one year. We didn't even have Lady bugs, wasps, hornets, birds etc. We have a very serious problem with our planet's eco system that showed up big time last year.

Thud,

I'm afraid what you have written looks impressive to the layman, but it's all pseudo-science.

You said: "The approximate mass of all ice in Arctic/Antarctic can easily be looked up. One can ignore the mass of glaciers in the mountains as their mass is insignificant compared to the above masses. The approximate volume of all oceans is also known. A simple calculation would inform you that were all of the polar ice masses to melt the world oceans will rise 32-36 cm, not 60 meters as you claimed-such figure is sheer nonsense and physical impossibility."

I did just that. The earth's ice mass is about 360 million cubic kilometers. The ocean surface area is about 30 million square kilometers. Therefore the maximum potential sea-level rise is 83 meters.

You said: "January 2008 happens to be the point mid-way between the two ice ages (last one 14,000 years ago, next one 14,000 years from now). It is also the point in time that the Northern hemisphere is the closest to the sun in the 28,000 year cycle."

Wrong! The orbital theory of climate change, which explains the glacial-interglacial transitions, predicts that we are coming towards the end of the interglacial period, so we should be cooling. But man-made climate changed has overwhelmed the cooling trend. If it weren't for this, things would be even worse.

You said: "It takes 80 Kcal to melt ice at zero degrees to water at zero degrees. Then it takes one kcal per degree per kilogram. Another simple calculation would inform one that the heat required to melt ice from about -50 degrees to water at some 8-12 degrees is substantial, to say the least. Where would this heat come from?"

The heat comes from heat that would previously have been radiated from the earth, but increased CO2 has trapped some of that heat. This is the most basic premise of the greenhouse effect and the fundamental driver behind global warming.

You said: "Another common misconception is that man-made CO2 is responsible for global warming (i.e., greenhouse effect and all that). The worst greenhouse gas is WATER! Not to mention bromine produced by blue algae. One can look up infrared absorption energies for all these quite easily.
No amount of man-made CO2 can ever alter the water cycle."

Irrelevant! It's not the fact that there are other greehouse gases out there that are more powerful, it's the fact that the equilibrium has shifted. We are lucky we have greenhouse gases or we would all freeze to death. And how much bromine is there in the atmosphere compared to CO2?

You said: "The entire debate about global warming is politicized (for what gain, I am not sure)"

You're right! But the politicized side is that of the deniers - the side of huge money interests such as Big Oil. You can't think of a "gain" for the climate change scientists because there isn't one!

BIDELO

thankyou for taking the time to do those calculations. being as i'm only a dumb blonde foreigner (KEM PATRICK can attest to this) it would have been difficult for me to do it. however, i have worked out all by myself (and wth the aid of a calculator) that bill gates has enough money to give every single human being on this planet $8 each. that's obscene..........wonder what he's got put away for the 'depression' and rising seas.

Considering how much ice the Arctic circle has lost even in the last couple of years this doesn't surprise me.

GottaGetOffTheGrid - this is a more direct link to the David Barber your article refers to:

http://umanitoba.ca/research/set/research_set_globalwarming.html

To Kem patrick, bidelo, others:

Well, I see that when two people do the same calculation they get two different answers.
Best thing to do I guess, is to look up the real numbers, and post the results here. When I have time, I will do just that and you folks can either agree or not. As I am, in fact, a functioning scientist, I have a difficult time to buy into paranoia and/or religion. The global warming debate has become just that, for the most part. Do the math, then talk.
Kem patrick's comment:

"So take off with your opinions THUD, the nickname for the F-105 fighter bomber, __ which also was a dud."

You disappoint me: I thought this forum is for educated, civilized people who can agree/disagree without stepping down to the level of personal comments. Perhaps I was incorrect in that assumption...opinions are opinions, facts are facts.

bidelo suggests to Thud "But the politicized side is that of the deniers - the side of huge money interests such as Big Oil."

Those might well be prevaricating provokers, but they're not the only deniers. Anyone with some kind of stake in the current system has to face the implications, and it won't be easy for many to modify their sense of entitlement after working and/or investing for years with certain expectations. The Kubler-Ross "five stages of grief" may come into play: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

Thud,

"Do the math, then talk"

Want more proof? Here's a reference to a USGS, peer-reviewed, scientific paper. It gives the number as 80 meters.

http://www.smith.edu/libraries/research/class/idp108USGS_99.pdf

Williams, Richard S. Jr., & Jane G. Ferrigno. Estimated present-day area and volume of glaciers and maximum sea level rise potential. Satellite Image Atlas of Glaciers of the World. US Geological Survey (USGS).

To bidelo:

The following website:
http://www.gma.org/surfing/antarctica/antarctica.html

lists the mass of antarctic ice as 30 million km3, constituting 90% of the world ice.
I assume that your number "360 million km3", off by an order of magnitude, is therefore a typo?
There are different numbers for the expected ocean levels: 0.5 m, 60 m, now 80 m? Seems like large variations of so many so-called scientists are involved.

To spartacus:

14,000 years versus 11,500 years is an irrelevant difference-either way we are smack in the middle of the period.

THUD

Thud, bidelo just crossed up his numbers:
ocean area 362E6 km2 and
ice volume 30E6 km3

Vol/area --> approx of rise of 83m...

Yup, just a typo. Should have said "The earth's ice mass is about 30 million cubic kilometers. The ocean surface area is about 360 million square kilometers. This calculates to 83 meters.

Thud, 60 and 80 meters are hardly variant at all. Just a 25% variation of the calculated ice mass would cause this discrepency. Please submit your citation and/or calculation for the 0.5m figure (I couldn't see it in the link).

KEM PATRICK,

What is your general region/ planetary location?

Here on the South Puget Sound we were short on several "bee-type" pollinators, but were cool with wasps, hornets, bumblebee, and some of the other "less productive" buggies.

Walnuts and Apples were fine (wormy but many apples).

Worst hit seems to be the plums.

That's just with us, in general, from talking to people it sounds like a pretty bum year here, but not the worst.

If you were that sparse insect-wise it sounds weather or season related?

We ride a very delicate balance to find water/food/shelter. I think its tempting sometimes to get caught up in the "sexy" issues like Sea-Rise/Ice-Melt, or Disease, or Storms, but the little things matter too.

Take the recent flooding just south of my home in Chehalis, Cascadia (Washington). No big storm, nothing too crazy, nothing too shocking, but in a ho-hum kinda way the "Pineapple Express" air current from Hawaii shifts a bit and BOOM, in an hour or two the "snow level" (at what elevation precipatation is snow, not rain) shoots up from a thousand or so to 8,000 ft.

Now this "other wise normal" winter storm is RAINING not snowing on every peak and foothill in the Cascades shorter than Rainier.

Snow pack in the mountains is undermined by falling liquid water, sending sudden avalanches on hikers and skiers that night, and increasing avalanche danger for the rest of the season (deadliest so far).

And precipatation that should have accumulated for the next three months in the mountains, then melted and run down over weeks, comes rushing down in HOURS instead. Mudslides, landslides, erosion everywhere, a whole town under water and some of the best farmland in Western Washington innundated.

And this flood doesn't bring the fertility of the ancient Nile, it brings the Century long accumulated toxins from the Pulp Mill and Industry of the formerly bustling railroad hub of Chehalis.

Organic farms that supply our local Farmers Market are losing their certification, because their approved-of topsoil is now under two feet of not-so-clean river silt, while other food producers have to lean on federal "disaster" relief funds to rebuild.

Homes over a century old and families of the rural didn't have much left to go on variety are not outright destroyed and washed away, but drowned and beginning to rot in the Northwest Winter.

The build-up and concentrated waste of a century of Human Progress now covers the land in a thin layer from the foothills to the Ocean.

And Interstate 5, the great conduit of people and goods was shut down for days.

All because one little rainstorm, and one little air current, shifting just a tiny bit.

People can say and write what they want, but Change is happening right now, and It's not waiting for politicians to define it, or Humans to accept it.

I think its going to get interesting.

-matti.

Hay there THUD, I sincerely do apologise for the flip remark, it wasn't intended to be personal, as I'm sure that's not your real name. It was in jest, you know, airpanes take off, so take off in that respect, not leave the forum. And your comments were a "dud" and so was the Republic F-105 "dud" called a Thud. That's the noise they made when they crashed at the end of the runway. Actually it was a pretty damn good aircraft, just very heavy, like the older P-47 Republic model. Nothin personal bud. Hang in here and give us some better wisdom and show us yor're correct with your opinions.

I'm not a scientist, am more like COCO, the dumb blond in tha tregard. $8 stinking dollars CoCo, he might as well keep it. That's only six beers, or twelve at happy hour. But I did conduct a layman's home experiment THUD and found out somethng. I took an ice cube out of the freezer and set it on a saucer. You know what, it finally melted and became liquid.

As a scientist Thud, did you know that over 90% of all of the fresh water in the world is locked up in the Anarctic ice? That is mind boggling when one thinks about it. All of the major rivers, the Nile, the Amazon, the Mississippi and so many others. The great lakes, the arctic ice cap, etc, there is so much fresh water, and to think that it's only near 10% of all of the fresh water on Earth. __ Wow, lotta ice there in Anartica.

Why do you think the ice all over the globe is melting Thud? Just Mother Nature doing her thing? Maybe she's a dumb blond too. How come some scientists, usually those who are paid by governments or companies like Exxon/Mobil, disagree with the thousands of scientists who say the global warming problem is primarily becaue we have burned so much coal and oil?
Did they just waste their time taking those thousands of ice core samples and then studied them? __ Dang.

Thud,

We are not smack in the middle. The interglacial period is 23,000 years and we are 15,000 years into it, so we should be cooling down. But we are warming up. I wonder what's causing that?

In the Southwest MATTI. We live in a remote mountain valley and have a mountain stream that snakes throuh the property. Our weather was quite normal last year and in fact we had just a bit over normal rainfall. It was the best weather conditions we'd had in five years.

The dramatic lack of inscets and birds was not the same every place, but there was a recent article here at CD about the poor apple harvest in New York last fall and another about the dramatic decrease of butterflies and one here now about falling bird populations. The cause? I dun-no.

KEM PATRICK

i didn't say he WAS going to give it. i said he had enough to. big difference. btw all those rivers and lakes you mentioned are nearly all polluted or dried up. good old jacques cousteau knew what he was talking about...........

MATTI

i have first hand experience with this Change as you call it. that's why i believe global warming/climate change is a very real threat to planet earth. and as you say, It's not waiting for man nor beast.........

Matti, you're right on about something going on. yesterday they forcasted half an inch of rain here, it didn't come but it was warm enough. its not weird unless you know that here is the foothills of the Rocky mountains in Alberta, Canada. sure we get hot days, but thats the chinook, a hot dry wind. this was a storm front from the NW.

as for the bees and hornets: we had less than 10% of the usual number of solitary bees, bumble bees, and hornets in 2007. if you walked through a field of alfalfa you had to listen carefully for the bees. makes me nervous.

Galen,

Colony collapse disorder is not at all being observed by any organic beekeepers. It's not a new disease. It's just commercial farmers pushing their hives too far in a number of new ways, and getting whacked by reality. One answer is buying smaller-diameter honeycombs for your hives.

Everybody else,

The high price of oil has spurred the use of two extremely carbon-unfriendly alternatives.
1. Tearing down mountains for coal
2. Tearing down forests for burning charcoal.
As a result, the amount of C02 is rising in the atmosphere at an accelerated rate. We're not at all breaking even these days.

On the political front, let's be real. Nothing is happening. No presidential candidate has ever mentioned global warming unless forced to by a citizen. When your political future is measured as 8 years maximum, what do you care what happens in 20 years?

Since the collapse and disintegration of the Larsen-B ice shelf,the ice sheets behind it have accelerated. Last year Greenland had a record on-land glacier acceleration of 5 kilometers in 90 minutes, about a slow walking speed.

If the Ross Ice Shelf gets riddled with rivulets and it collapses, we may see a huge lot of ice, much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, follow it into the ocean. That's the fear. It will probably take decades for this to really get going. Until then, expect ocean rises to be measured in millimeters.

The immediate danger to NYC is actually a 150 mph hurricane, another global warming problem.

If the scientists are shaken, you should be stirred.

Thud,

Here's the calculation for what you described as "physically impossible" and "nonsense". I await your rebuttal.

Diameter of the earth = 12,756 km.

Volume of ice = 30 M cubic km.

Surface area of earth

= 4 * pi * radius-squared

= 4 * 3.141 * (12,756/2)^2

= 511 million square km

Assume 70% of earth is water covered.

Surface area of oceans

= 0.7 * 511M

= 358M square km

Therefore maximum rise in sea-level

= 30M km^3/358M km^2

= 0.84 km

= 84 meters

QED

I am stirred. But someone will surely say I'm mixed up. Love COCO, even if she can't spell (I) rite.

I believe you Bidelo, and I can't balance a check book.

Thank you Kem, that's why I don't use checks anymore!

I'm trying to prove that us lefties aren't a bunch of scientific illiterates like the right seems to believe. The other point is that climate change denial is not mainstream science, it's on the fringe. If people are going to argue against the mainstream, they should at least do a cursory check on their facts, because there's thousands of scientists out there who are ready to challenge them. It took me about 10 minutes to debunk Thud's arguments. I'm assuming because I haven't had a proper rebuttal they must have been reasonably good points I made. He claims he is a "functioning scientist" and everybody else are "so-called" scientists. I would say it's the other way round.

To kem patrick:

accepted, no hard feelings. When you ask about why "scientists" are divided over the issue of global warming and whether or not "we the people" are actually causing it you may consider which side of the argument pays their bills.
I read arguments for and against fossil fuel contributions and in general disagree with the proposed outcome. The politics of it these days make it hard to sort out the facts.
It would be a long and bitter discussion if we started to talk about ethics in science and "ethical" scientists.
When I have time in between classes I have to teach i will reopen this issue.

To bidelo:

Your numbers seem OK at a first glance, except for the final one, that would be 840 meters. Will recalculate when i have some time to spare.

Now someone should go at look up the production of bromine in metric tons/year by algae-I can supply the dissociation energy of the Br-Br bond.

Cheers to all,
glad I finally entered this forum, have been reading here for a while.
THUD

Thud,

Yes, it comes out to 0.084 km, which is 84 meters.

Are you seriously saying the conflict of interest of a few scientist's salaries in any way compares with the profits of the oil/coal/motor industries? Are you saying some scientists have pulled off a grand scheme of all telling the same lie just to keep their jobs? And most of the world has bought it?

I don't see how the production of bromine in metric tons/year by algae is relevant. Even if bromine is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, it's the change is concentration of CO2 that is relevant. Are you saying that the bromine concentration is increasing?

I saw a guy with Amy Goodman on Democracy Now that said three things would determine the human race as toast:
The Artic ocean ice free.
The Methane in the tundra bubbling up.
The Methane at the bottom of the oceans bubbling up.
I think we're screwed.

Bali & Related Misinformation

For seven years, this unelected president has sold us out by invoking unprecedented blockage of progress in vital global warming mitigation and related environmental reforms through deception and manipulation of science–not to mention outrageous deprivation of hope from millions with incurable diseases by his zealot obstruction blockage of stem cell research, this misguided war, and the list goes on. He has corrupted the EPA which was chartered as a non political environmental watchdog, by President Nixon--and it functioned as such until this administration.

Now without shame, in his 12/20/07 press conference, he states that our recent watered down requirement to increase the average fleet mileage standards to 35 mph (sic) by 2020 reflects the US lead in mitigation measures to curb climate change--after rejecting Kyoto and stalling progress in te Bali conference, and even blocking nearly half of our population from setting more effective standards.

Despite the horrific consequences of his policies, he cannot be blamed . Instead blame falls on the apathetic and unlearned voters who helped his team steal the elections, the five supreme court justices who placed politics over principal and planted this unfit person in office, and our legislators for allowing these outrageous actions against our planet. .

GLOBAL WARMING ARROGANCE
RThe melting ice sheets which will absorb rather than reflect heat, the melting permafrost which will releases more CO2 & methane, and ocean acidification are not the only self perpetuating consequence of carbon pollution. Inundation of low lying areas, spread of tropical diseases to temperate latitudes, sea life destruction from changing ocean chemistry, & currents, are only some potential consequences.

The US rejections of Kyoto, and now the Bali Conference, underscore the dangerous control that special interests exercise over this administration''s policies. Their distortions of scientific data typifies their unconscionable war on science. Evidence linking carbon pollution to warming has long been as close to certain as science can be. Its causes, consequences, and mitigation requirements have been documented by many dedicated environmental organizations including The Union of Concerned Scientists.

Special interests argue that the current warming trends follow historic warming cycles, and hence reflect natural weather patterns--but they omit obvious differences: The earlier warming trends developed at slower rates which permitted the ecosystems to adapt. Morever they resulted from temporary natural events, which allowed transitions back to normal temperature patterns--by contrast, the current warming patterns result from artificial causes that will only intensify unless mitigated.

Often overlooked is the fact that, the same measures needed to mitigate global warming would be necessary even if it were no issue. Conservation, alternative energy development, anti- pollution refinements, etc are essential for other vital environmental reforms such as air and water quality, reductions in toxic waste generation, land preservation, etc.

Contrary to right wing assertions, measures to reduce greenhouse gases could only improve our economy by lessening our trade deficits, and improving our security by reducing our dependance on foreign oil. We could also regain some of our lost world respect that has resulted from our rejection of Kyoto while arrogantly contributing disproportionally to carbon pollution. With our participation in international efforts, China & India could no longer use our non-compliance as an excuse for their non-participation.

The environmental and social damage from our indifference to carbon pollution can only worsen

~Sgohare1~ Yes indeed, I think we are screwed too, and the only kissing that will transpire during the screwing will be us kissing our asses gooodby.

Glad you brought up plankton ~THUD~. One of the plankton specie, the very first of those, or any known life forms on this planet, is the microscopic Phytoplankton. Those little plants are the most important buggers here in or little biosphere, including humans.

The ocean's Phytoplnkton, produce about 70% of the oxygen in our atmosphere. Without them, there would be no life on this planet, except perhaps some type of unknown bacteria that lives wthout the need of oxygen. I added that last part there, to prevent some shit head coming on here and telling me that ALL life don't need oxygen and starting a stupid fight.

Anyway, the phytoplankton are dying off, and no one knows exactly why they are. The primary suspect is humans, polluting the atmosphere and oceans with poisons, from burning coal and using nuclear power, dumping atomic waste in the oceans and the insane spread of DU all over the planet.

So it is not just global warming and the release of methane gas that is gonna do us in. When the phytoplankton die off another 20% or so, it's gonna be hard to breath, unless one has an unlimited supply of oxygen on hand.

BIDELO, you're a very smart cookie, where you been hiding? You a boy? Actually I hope you're a blond girl, help that false stigma of dumb blonds. Of course the dumb blond jokes are often really funny and the dumb blonds aren't bothered, because they don't ever understand the joke.