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Ominous Arctic Melt Worries Experts
An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer, a warning sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point. One even speculated that summer sea ice would be gone in five years.
Greenland's ice sheet melted nearly 19 billion tons more than the previous high mark, and the volume of Arctic sea ice at summer's end was half what it was just four years earlier, according to new NASA satellite data obtained by The Associated Press.
"The Arctic is screaming," said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government's snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colo.
Just last year, two top scientists surprised their colleagues by projecting that the Arctic sea ice was melting so rapidly that it could disappear entirely by the summer of 2040.
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions."
So scientists in recent days have been asking themselves these questions: Was the record melt seen all over the Arctic in 2007 a blip amid relentless and steady warming? Or has everything sped up to a new climate cycle that goes beyond the worst case scenarios presented by computer models?
"The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming," said Zwally, who as a teenager hauled coal. "Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines."
It is the burning of coal, oil and other fossil fuels that produces carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, responsible for man-made global warming. For the past several days, government diplomats have been debating in Bali, Indonesia, the outlines of a new climate treaty calling for tougher limits on these gases.
What happens in the Arctic has implications for the rest of the world. Faster melting there means eventual sea level rise and more immediate changes in winter weather because of less sea ice.
In the United States, a weakened Arctic blast moving south to collide with moist air from the Gulf of Mexico can mean less rain and snow in some areas, including the drought-stricken Southeast, said Michael MacCracken, a former federal climate scientist who now heads the nonprofit Climate Institute. Some regions, like Colorado, would likely get extra rain or snow.
More than 18 scientists told the AP that they were surprised by the level of ice melt this year.
"I don't pay much attention to one year ... but this year the change is so big, particularly in the Arctic sea ice, that you've got to stop and say, 'What is going on here?' You can't look away from what's happening here," said Waleed Abdalati, NASA's chief of cyrospheric sciences. "This is going to be a watershed year."
2007 shattered records for Arctic melt in the following ways:
• 552 billion tons of ice melted this summer from the Greenland ice sheet, according to preliminary satellite data to be released by NASA Wednesday. That's 15 percent more than the annual average summer melt, beating 2005's record.
• A record amount of surface ice was lost over Greenland this year, 12 percent more than the previous worst year, 2005, according to data the University of Colorado released Monday. That's nearly quadruple the amount that melted just 15 years ago. It's an amount of water that could cover Washington, D.C., a half-mile deep, researchers calculated.
• The surface area of summer sea ice floating in the Arctic Ocean this summer was nearly 23 percent below the previous record. The dwindling sea ice already has affected wildlife, with 6,000 walruses coming ashore in northwest Alaska in October for the first time in recorded history. Another first: the Northwest Passage was open to navigation.
• Still to be released is NASA data showing the remaining Arctic sea ice to be unusually thin, another record. That makes it more likely to melt in future summers. Combining the shrinking area covered by sea ice with the new thinness of the remaining ice, scientists calculate that the overall volume of ice is half of 2004's total.
• Alaska's frozen permafrost is warming, not quite thawing yet. But temperature measurements 66 feet deep in the frozen soil rose nearly four-tenths of a degree from 2006 to 2007, according to measurements from the University of Alaska. While that may not sound like much, "it's very significant," said University of Alaska professor Vladimir Romanovsky.
- Surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean this summer were the highest in 77 years of record-keeping, with some places 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, according to research to be released Wednesday by University of Washington's Michael Steele.
Greenland, in particular, is a significant bellwether. Most of its surface is covered by ice. If it completely melted - something key scientists think would likely take centuries, not decades - it could add more than 22 feet to the world's sea level.
However, for nearly the past 30 years, the data pattern of its ice sheet melt has zigzagged. A bad year, like 2005, would be followed by a couple of lesser years.
According to that pattern, 2007 shouldn't have been a major melt year, but it was, said Konrad Steffen, of the University of Colorado, which gathered the latest data.
"I'm quite concerned," he said. "Now I look at 2008. Will it be even warmer than the past year?"
Other new data, from a NASA satellite, measures ice volume. NASA geophysicist Scott Luthcke, reviewing it and other Greenland numbers, concluded: "We are quite likely entering a new regime."
Melting of sea ice and Greenland's ice sheets also alarms scientists because they become part of a troubling spiral.
White sea ice reflects about 80 percent of the sun's heat off Earth, NASA's Zwally said. When there is no sea ice, about 90 percent of the heat goes into the ocean which then warms everything else up. Warmer oceans then lead to more melting.
"That feedback is the key to why the models predict that the Arctic warming is going to be faster," Zwally said. "It's getting even worse than the models predicted."
NASA scientist James Hansen, the lone-wolf researcher often called the godfather of global warming, on Thursday was to tell scientists and others at the American Geophysical Union scientific in San Francisco that in some ways Earth has hit one of his so-called tipping points, based on Greenland melt data.
"We have passed that and some other tipping points in the way that I will define them," Hansen said in an e-mail. "We have not passed a point of no return. We can still roll things back in time - but it is going to require a quick turn in direction."
Last year, Cecilia Bitz at the University of Washington and Marika Holland at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado startled their colleagues when they predicted an Arctic free of sea ice in just a few decades. Both say they are surprised by the dramatic melt of 2007.
Bitz, unlike others at NASA, believes that "next year we'll be back to normal, but we'll be seeing big anomalies again, occurring more frequently in the future." And that normal, she said, is still a "relentless decline" in ice.
On the Net
National Snow and Ice Data Center on 2007 Arctic sea ice:
http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html
NASA's "Tipping Points" panel and slide show materials:
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/tipping_points.html
© 2007 Associated Press
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97 Comments so far
Show AllAre the whales in big trouble? They sure as hell are. All wild life is in BIG trouble.
There has been a dramatic reduction of birds world wide this year, inscects have reduced by more than 60% this past year and naturally it was most noticable with the honey bees because those are a commodity. The whales are not the canaries of the ocean, the plankton and phytoplankton are. The whales are at the top of the oceans food chain and we can readily observe what is happening with them and the same will happen to the top of the land animal food chain. ___ That's us. Turn out the lights, the parties over, they say all things must surely end.
If only Santa (soon to be another refugee) could punish us by not giving out any electronic/media junk this year. That would definately hit where it hurts.
We need to remember that burning fossil fuels is only part of the problem.
We need to cut down on meat, dairy and other animal-derived products in order to reduce the amount of methane that is being released into the atmosphere.
Please read this article:
http://www.drmcdougall.com/misc/2006nl/dec/truth.htm
The North Pole is melting. Santa's gift-factory soon gone. A literal fact metaphorically true in more ways than one.
We've depleted Earth's ability to keep on serving us the gift of stability.
Look out for seasonally disoriented raindeer (and other animals) stumbling about with gifts for totally wrong timing...
"Santa Claus is coming – too soon..." With a disastrous kind of premature delivery. Life's a beach – now about to reach your porch, and wash it away.
*
We're waking up from our sleep, being roused by our own somnambulent activities, to find we have soiled and shat in our bed.
Ouch, what a disgusting image. And so true, too.
Finally, it's official....2012! Damn...those Mayans hit the bull's eye.
Would someone please tell the Republicans about this. Oh, silly me...they can't be bothered by little things like facts or even the blatantly obvious. Kyoto has to be scrapped! We must have zero emissions as THE goal very very soon. In addition, we must work furiously on ways to extract the carbon from the atmosphere that's already there. If we don't do those two things, we can start writing the obituarie for our civilization if not our entie species.
INDEEPSHITAKE, yes, indeedy, they did.
When the arctic ice and the perma frost in Alaska melts in about five years, the 4,000 megatons of methane gas, which has been trapped there for over fifty million years 'burps' and escapes into our atmosphere, we can turn out the lights, for the party will be over and the fat lady WILL sing.
All life on this world will go out with the lights, and the only witnesses to the event may be those orbiting the planet in the space station, and or any who have great big tanks of oxygen. It will be On The Beach all over again,___ but for real.
We can talk abut global warming, cows and ducks, automobile fumes and political sucks until doomsday. The very most serious problem we really face, is that hidden methane gas that is going to do us in. It is not my opinion or a fairy dooms day theory, It's a fact,__ REALITY 101. __ 2012 is it.
I'm gonna miss all of you gals and guys.
The BBC also has an item that contains additional info, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm
US opposition to mandatory emission caps is homicidal.
That fits the equation, Bush and company are homicidal and Conyers sits on the HR-333 bill like a fool, fearing Nancy mayinsure he doesn't get re-elected. ___ Incredible.
Ominous? Well, yes, in the sense that a three-mile meteorite striking the earth is ominous. Yes, perhaps cause for concern. Maybe even a reason to begin some initiative designed to curb global warming. Possibly a reason for our leaders to get involved.
George Inc. is Johnny-on-the-spot in dealing with imagined threats. Show him some science and immediately smells a rat. George is retarded and dick is insane. Even the Reagan White House had a better grasp of reality.
It's an amount of water that could cover Washington, D.C., a half-mile deep, researchers calculated.
Talk, talk, talk. How long must we wait for someone to actually do it?
Cause for concern NIETZSCHE? Actually do IT CLARK KENT?
Google arctic methane gas, when the screen comes up, scroll down the the article titled, Arctic clethrotes contain 3,000 more methane than in our atmosphere.
If any wish to disagree, they are arguing with the qualified scientists who are listed as sources for the opinions and facts published.
And let's not forget the methane hydrate at the bottom of the seas. It won't take much rise in ocean temps for that to be released as well. It makes one wonder if Venus-like conditions aren't Earth's future. I really wish the radical right was correct on this one.
Three degrees.
Dr. Hansen has been saying 450 ppm is the last tipping point. Maybe its the 380 ppm we're at now.
Everything is in doubt. Civilization, our survival. If methane does start to spike, we gotta shut everything down except for the most basic food production, and attempt one of the global dimming strategies.
KEM PATRICK
three degrees? that's a girl band isn't it from way back when.? (oops, showing my age!!) i sent you on another post a link to www.december212012.com so as you are talking about it presume you saw it. i remember about 8 years ago reading an article (i think it was in 'time' magazine) about someone who went to the arctic in the summer time only to find there was no ice. so is this just a pattern as indicated in the above article? somehow i don't think so. however, you'll be happy to know that there are lots of birds around here and i've seen a couple of bees. (well, wasps really) it's just all too sad and could have been avoided many years ago if greed hadn't entered into it.
Please take a look at the inconvenient truth about an inconvenient truth:
Meat Eating and Global Warming
www.ivu.org/members/globalwarming.html
and then take action!
Three degrees COCO, __ not 38DD.
There is another yesterday's article here below this one, BEYOND THE POINT OF NO RETURN, that states we have already passed the tipping point.
We can kill every single bovine on the planet, including all of the Dzo's, junk every vehicle and shut down every coal fired plant and stop burning fossil fuel and stop burnng our forests and charcoal. The methane gas will still be released into the atmosphere in 2012. ~Bye bye~
Oh what is a DZo? Very interesting animal and a swell Scrabble word when you can get the Z on a triple score block.
It wasn't just the Mayans that point to 2012 as being significant to humanity. 2012 is the year in which the galactic year ends, the sun falls into alignment with the center of the universe.
Nostradamus also predicted that the year 2012 would be the year in which humanity either rose to a new level or parished.
It's all pretty freaky when all the evidence around global warming is point to the year 2012 as a very significant time. The point of absolutely no return.
Time to either decide to do something, or start doing herion.
Now there is a %$*&*#@ surprise !
scaredhippie,
i think 2012 goes better with mushrooms. heroin doesn't sound too appetizing.
http://www.levity.com/mavericks/terence.htm
DJB: According to your time-wave model, novelty reaches its peak expression and history appears to come to a close in the year 2012. Can you explain what you mean by this, and what the global or evolutionary implications are of what you refer to as the "end of time"?
Terence: What I mean is this. The theory describes time with what are called novelty waves, because waves have wavelengths, one must assign an end point to the novelty wave, so the end of time is nothing more than the point on the historical continuum that is assigned as the end point of the novelty wave. Novelty, is something which has been slowly maximized through the life of the universe, something which reaches infinite density, or infinite contraction at the point from which the wave is generated. Trying to imagine what time would be like near the temporal singularity is difficult because we are far from it, in another domain of physical law. There need to be more facts in play, before we will be able to correctly envisage the end of time, but what we can say concerning the singularity is this: it is the obviation of life in three-dimensional space, everything that is familiar comes to an end, everything that can be described in Euclidian space is superseded by modes of being which require a more complicated description which is currently unavailable.
DJB: From your writings I have gleaned that you subscribe to the notion that psilocybin mushrooms are a species of high intelligence, that they arrived on this planet as spores that migrated through outer space and are attempting to establish a symbiotic relationship with human beings. In a more holistic perspective, how do you see this notion fitting into the context of Francis Crick's theory of directed panspermia, the hypothesis that all life on this planet and it's directed evolution has been seeded, or perhaps fertilized, by spores designed by a higher intelligence?
Terence: As I understand the Crick theory of panspermia, it's a theory of how life spread through the universe. What I was suggesting, and I don't believe it as strongly as you imply, but I entertain it as a possibility, that intelligence--not life but intelligence-may have come here in this spore bearing life form. This is a more radical version of the panspermia theory of Crick and Ponampurama. In fact I think that theory will probally be vindicated. I think in a hundred years if people do biology they will think it quite silly that people once thought that spores could not be blown from one star system to another by cosmic radiation pressure. As far as the role of the psilocybin mushroom, or its relationship to us and to intelligence, this is something that we need to consider. It really isn't important that I claim that it's an extraterrestrial, what we need is a body of people claiming this, or a body of people denying it, because what we're talking about is the experience of the mushroom. Few people are in a position to judge its extraterrestrial potential because few people in the orthodox sciences have ever experienced the full spectrum of psychedelic effects that is unleashed. One cannot find out whether or not there's an extraterrestrial intelligence inside the mushroom unless one is willing to take the mushroom.
SCAREDHIPPY
what the f is herion? and what did he do to get doed?
KEM PATRICK
shut up about the bloody DZos. and stop being such a sexist!!! anyway, we've got it all wrong (or at least the mayans) take a look at this: www.geocities.com/astrologyages/maya2012.htm
btw scientists have said for years that we are beyond the point of no return. but no-one seems to take any notice of them. i for one don't give a monkey's uncle about what they say; i go by my own observations. and what i observe tells me there is something fundamentally wrong with nature.
Nice gals with bleached blond hair are not fundamentally natural to nature COCO. Think I'll let someone else explain for you what 'H' is.
Wow, we have gone from the ominous melting ice, to 2012, to mind altering drugs, to global warming, methane gas, big boobs, to cow farts and Dzos. Lets see how long it takes for the word impeach to arrive.
Coco. Since you recenty migrated to Britian, you may wish to know, that the trem "Bloddy" is equivelant to using the word F##k in civilized countries. Be careful when crossng streets there, they drive on the wrong side of the road. The contaminated with chemicals kidney pies they eat, destroy brain cells.
On the ice cap thing, I read that same exact article, and there's no doubt the shit is getting as deep as the ice & snow is scarce. But once again, the message is just put so wrong. "Worry," "ominous," "the Arctic is screaming." And the worst one, the canary is dead, it's time to get out of the mine? Just exactly where are we going to go?
It's the old fear-based appeal again, and on this issue, I just don't believe that it works at all. In fact, I think this now reinforces the apathetic & treadmill behavior of the Americans at least. Better enjoy the convenience while we've got it. Get some shopping in, it may be all over soon.
What I find way more exciting & motivating are true stories, mostly from elsewhere & not easily available to the average American, about what people are doing to respond to the problem. This gives us something to do at least even as we figure out the problems are bigger than we thought, and getting worse faster than we thought. There is a new approach to automobiles in Norway.
And it turns out Norway & Denmark are both phasing out gasoline & diesel cars by 2010 (that's right), & gas stations soon after. And since they know how to do adaptive strategic planning, they'll likely get the job done, and on time. I find this prospect exciting, & far more effective in getting me to get off my butt & do something, than the old worry/ominous/screaming/dead canary routines.
Ed Johnson
Wildlife Biologist
KEM PATRICK
i might be a blonde but a) i do know what 'h' is. i was being obtuse, like you are on occasions, b) i am not in 'Britian', c)'bloddy' is not equivalent to using the f word in any country, be they civilized or not. even prince phillip uses the b word on occasions, and d) let's 'impeach' kem patrick for his mis-spellings
and believe me kem, in an effort to preserve my 'brian' cells i only eat vegetables that are organically grown.
Gee, I sincerely hope I didn't offend you COCO, I was teasing just a little. I think you are a swell gal and add so much good to this site.
Impeach Kem? i is supposed to be spelled I. So there.
thank you for your articles about meateating. I am not ready to stop all meat BUT, I am going to fire up the crockpot and eat beans, split peas, and combine it with rice in the ricecooker.
This beans and rice recommended by those Hippies long ago and it is the diet of balancing carbohydrates and protein
This is cheap chepa cheap-
You cn support our favorite charities while eating guiltfree and saving a lot of time not going shopping.
Store rice and beans at home with spices and throw in a bone here and there and I will eat eggs too.
Yes everybody changing their diet will make a difference!!!
Will some account please count up how much oil carbon dioxide will be saved if a good number of us turned into Hippy eating habits.
Adding the methane gasses currently in the Artic will not end all life and turn out the lights.
What it means is that the rate at which we are warming will go up. In terms of immediate effects, you'd never notice. But the lines on the charts of how much we warm over the next hundred years or so will get a bit steeper.
Not a chance it will end life. Even if something ended 'human life', life is very resilient and will go on.
It won't even end human life. It will just keep getting warmer around here. It would probably, over the long term effect how many humans can live on the earth. And it would effect how the humans live, the 'quality of life'. But its not going to end all life or send us all back to the stone age.
When you are trying to figure out what the Republicans are thinking, this is important. They are not suicidal. Not even for short term profit.
When you listen to the Republicans, you get a real 'us versus them' mentality. They divide the world into those two camps. They don't think of what's good for everyone. They only think of what's good for the 'us' that they define.
Thus the drive towards military power. They fully expect the world to become a rougher more dangerous place. Their answer to that is more firepower. Thing of a gated community.
There will still be oil after peak oil. Its just going to be more expensive. Since they think of the 'wealthy' as their 'us', they expect to be able to pay for it. Want they want is to make sure its still available to their 'us' and that they have the firepower to keep the masses away from their 'us'.
Same goes for global warming. The main impact looks to be on food. There will likely be less food. There's likely to be more starving people. Food is likely to be more expensive. Again, they expect to be able to pay for it. What they want is the firepower to make sure they can still get it and to fend off the starving masses.
The Mayans don't say the world's going to end. They just say its the end of one grand cycle and the beginning of the next. The question is, what is the shift going to look like. Is it going to be an era of peace where we take everyone's concerns into account and reach some basic understandings. Or is it going to be an era of conflict where we are all fighting over scarce resources.
The Republicans are steering the world towards the era of conflict. They are maneuvering to make sure they have the power to live in that world. Thinking that the world is going to end and the Republicans are just too blind to see it misses the whole picture.
Coco,
Why are you so concerned about spelling?
Don't you have any other outlets for your pent-up frustration and rage?
What a waste of time.
There are bigger problems in the world than someone accidentally hitting the wrong key when they are typing.
You like to be really sarcastic and make fun of other people, but when they give a little back, you get all upset. Excuse me, I have to go play the worlds smallest violin now.
Will 'em peaches be growing in 2012?
Shouldn't hit submit, shouldn't hit submit, really really shouldn't hit submit.
sorry, I forgot the apostrophe in "world's"
Just thought I would jump on it right away to prevent COCO from doing so.
Everyone Should be VERY scared. It is criminal what most of the Republican's in the U.S. House and Senate have done to halt any legislation to stop global warming. It is equally reprehensible that the current Republican U.S. presidential candidates have not mentioned and seemingly have no intention to take steps to stop this global warming catastrophe. In fact Rudy Giuliani has most of his current campaign funds coming from the oil/gas/coal corporations. How the heck can these greedy 'morons' stand bye and watch the world 'melt down'.
I totally agree with those who say human consumption of meat and other animal products MUST be minimized if not eliminated. Pollution from factory farms and the poor farm animals who suffer in them is horrible. I have been doing my part as a vegetarian for over ten years and don't miss meat, poultry or fish at all. Try meat substitutes like Tofurky. It's delicious, tastes like turkey and you won't miss the meat at all. There are even seafood substitutes that are just as good as the real thing. Go to a Whole Foods Market and check it out. Don't knock it until you've tried it.
THERE IS NO EXCUSE ANYMORE! ACTION MUST BE TAKEN NOW! THE VERY SURVIVAL OF ALL LIFE ON EARTH AND THE EARTH ITSELF IS AT STAKE!
http://theearthblog.spaces.live.com
Time is melting away...How do we save the "greatest generation" from being remembered as the "dumbest generation" ?
COMARK You are arguing with the esteemed scientists who report otherwise about your comments. Guess you didn't read that article I suggested. Some of them say about five more years and the methane gas goes BURP and goodby humanity. Again, I sadly take their word for it,
Perhaps you are correct, I sure do hope so, but I don't know what qualifies you to offer those rosier words. How about coming back and cite the scientists by name, and tell us why they are wrong and you are right.
Oh no, Coco and I have fun here, she wasn't serous. __ I hope not. Dzo's don't pass a lot of gas. Raise Dzos.
ALL YOU GUYS KEM PATRICK, SACREDHIPPIE, ET AL
don't get your knickers in a twist!!! i'm surprised at you kem especially. i thought you knew me well enough to know when i'm joking. no-one, but no-one will upset me with words. i'm on a higher plain than that. only physical abuse will hurt me. as physical abuse has hurt this wonderful planet we live on. i just love to play with words and minds. maybe that constitutes abuse. therefore i am guilty. mea culpa. but i have never abused this earth. and that is the fundamental issue here. the insanity visited upon earth in the guise of progress. and the physical abuse in it's wake. the physical abuse of animals, humans, plants, trees, oceans, forests,lakes, mountains, insects. and for what? i don't know the answer to that. and i suspect i never will. but i live with earth and respond to the creatures that inhabit the same time and space. i apologise to any of you i might have offended mentally or verbally. i would never raise my hand physically toward you. as i would never raise my hand physically toward planet earth.
SAVETHEEARTHBLOGGER
horrible is not the word to describe what the factory farm animals endure.
i do not think a word has yet been invented to epitomise their suffering.
And the Dems are innocent???
Let's notice this is the Associated Press. That should put it above some opinion page article. Get a kick out of you, Kem.
Obviously, the SOS should have and did infact give a call a long time ago, but wasn't heeded. Picture is still beautiful, tho.
Yet another positive feedback mechanism to worry about:
http://www.paramuspost.com/article.php/20071110190334747
There are growing concerns among scientists that fires - around the world - are part of a spiraling and destructive feedback loop: Hot, dry weather caused by climate change increases the frequency and ferocity of wildfires. These fires release into the atmosphere ever-larger amounts of particulates, pollutants and greenhouse gases that, in turn, result in even hotter, drier weather and more fires. "It's not unreasonable to argue there's a connection," said Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a noted climate scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego.
There are so many artic cruises that rich people already enjoy. It is now time to think about condos and casinos on the top of the world.
Too many critters for our poor earth. We are like a virus or parasite. If the host dies, we have no where to go and so we die off as a species. Our only hope is if the hosts immune system can control our spread while not killing us off completely, like with pandemics, starvation, wars over limited resources, etc. Global warming is just a manifestation of the immune response, like a fever, the only aspirin is to cut consumption.
Unless Americans and our European counterparts are willing to lower our standard of living and stop consuming so much, and cull some of the worlds critters, there is no hope for this civilization. Of course, China gets a lot of blame, but most of their carbon emissions are to produce goods for Europe and America, and they at least control their population of critters, so they are getting a bad rap.
Guess thats why the Gates Foundation and other tax free foundations have set up a doomsday seed vault in the Arctic. When the environmental crisis that ends civilization as we know it is all over, the elite can climb out of their environmentally controlled caves which have been stocked with comfort food, water, green houses and animals, and civilizations knowledge and culture, and use the seeds to start the New World Order, which will be a greener and friendlier order to allow us and our host to get along.
For the critters, I say eat up. Order that steak, medium or rare. Pepperoni Pizza, whatever, just do it. Drive your SUV to buy your groceries and go to work or just cruise the neigbourhood, and burn up whats left of the oil, crank up the heat or A/C, take that elevator to the 3rd floor, just do not complain while you do so.
Thats why they deny global warming, they do not want to alarm the critters to force them to do something about it. You see, they look forward to it as a necessary step for the new world order and a civilization which can begin stocked with all the best genes. In the meantime, our consumption helps them get richer, kind of like a super bubble, when it bursts they go into their caves for a few generations and then start another one.
First, we should be clear about what might happen. Then we should grieve. Then we should be able to function.
The bottoms of the West Antarctic ice sheet and one section of the Greenland ice sheet are below sea level. This increases the chance of them partially breaking apart in, say, three weeks, just as the Larsen B ice shelf collapsed. I could see, just a guess, the oceans rising five feet some January, maybe in January of 2008, maybe in 2012 for all I know. A five foot rise would render many hurricane barriers across the U.S. inadequate. A 20 foot rise (the complete loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet) would top the barriers, and trillions of dollars worth of coastal buildings and infrastructure would become nearly worthless.
No one should say this is not possible in the next five years.
In addition, a section of Greenland ice sheet above sea level slid 3 miles in 90 minutes this year. We know little about the motions of ice sheets in warm weather.
Several factors indicate the possibility of runaway global warming in the future:
500 billion tons of methane can bubble up if Siberia melts.
When the very top inch of snow on an ice sheet melts, the snow changes to absorb four times more sunshine. This has happened.
Since 2004, 50% of the polar ice has gone.
In response to industrialization and expensive oil, the world's forest areas are being cut down for charcoal fires and for ethanol fuel production. Coal plant construction has exploded.
This all means, in the less-than long run, that we have a chance at looking at a 200 foot ocean rise. 70% of the world's total population will have to find new homes. Goodbye to Los Angeles, San Jose, Memphis, the Boston-Washington Corridor, London, Paris, Hamburg, Beijing and Mumbai.
That's why I grieve.
Will we be alive? Yes, probably. We'll have plenty of time to flee our homes. We'll try to carry on, and we'll find a way to try as a globe to fight global warming.
God bless the grief-stricken.
CoMarc:
You have a lot of optimism in the face of worst case scenarios coming true decades earlier than predicted.
Methane levels have been constant for several years, but the clathrates are there, and permafrost temperatures are rising. At the least, large releases will greatly accelerate warming. The worst would be the quick end of us all.
Bali wants 25-40% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2020. 2.9 million gwh produced each year in the US by fossil fuel electric generation. One brand new French nuke should produce about 10,000 gwh. A mere 116 nukes built in 12 years would replace 40% of fossil electric, and would slightly more than double the number of US reactors in service. Conservation and rationing would help. Cheney might go for it if Haliburton got a piece of the action.
Then in 20 years or so start building the new generation reactors that will use (very litle) U235 and consume actinide waste from the older generation reactors. Instead of perpetual war, we would have perepetual reactor building. Power for growth, rail, hydrogen, desalination...
I know. Ain't happening. Not even one nuke. No conservation. Just talk, talk, stall, stall. Time to retire to Cape May and watch the ocean rise.
i knew you were jokIn CoCo, i'm In love wIth you.
DJ Pineover December 12th, 2007 8:02 pm:
"Time is melting away…How do we save the "greatest generation" from being remembered as the "dumbest generation" ?":
Well, the way I see it is this: If no one is left, who will be there to call us "the dumbest generation"?
Just wondering.
Gee Kem....I thought you were in love with me.....
I am ABBY. Oh-oh darnit, CoCo knows now you idiot.
Fatal attraction __ all over again.
No spirit ever dies, we will always know.