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Attacking Iran Makes No Sense
There were some things far more frightening last week than Halloween's small ghouls and goblins -- and the scariest of all is the Bush administration's seemingly inexorable march toward military confrontation with Iran.
What are they smoking back there at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.? The very idea is dumb as a fence post and best left to the biggest pied piper of what passes for neoconservative thought, Norman Podhoretz. Yet both President Bush and his able assistant, Vice President Darth Cheney, are marching to that tune and humming along lustily.
There is no crisis here and no earthly reason to manufacture one on short notice, except for the fact that in under 15 months the Bush administration will pass ignominiously into history. Then a new chief executive can begin dealing with two ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, a national debt nearing $10 trillion, a terrorist threat to America only made stronger by eight years of Bush and Cheney and a national economy trembling on the brink of recession.
As though that weren't a big enough mess to leave behind, like so much trash in an abandoned trailer home, these brilliant thinkers want to bequeath a third and far more dangerous war to whoever is unlucky enough to win the ongoing tussle for the right to be the next president.
There are two questions here: Why? And, why now?
Yes, the centrifuges are whirling away in Iran's deeply buried and widely dispersed nuclear facilities, enriching uranium that can be used to power electric generation plants and, it's true, can also be used to build nuclear weapons.
But most analysts say that even if Iran's ultimate ambition is to build a nuclear weapon, it will take them another five or six years before they get there. Some say even longer.
How about we take a deep breath and -- once we have an administration in power that believes that it is far better to talk, talk, talk than it is to war, war, war -- negotiate with Iran without all those preconditions so beloved by Bush and Cheney.
How about we do all we can to support the International Atomic Energy Agency and its goal of inspecting facilities like those in Iran to ensure that the product is used only for peaceful purposes.
If none of that works, we can count on one final fallback position: If and when Iran gets within reach of building a nuke, Israel will take out crucial parts of that system.
All of this argues against Bush and Cheney doing anything more than running their mouths and pretending to still be relevant, studly and in charge as they stumble blindly toward the finish line and history's harsh judgment.
The more thoughtful military and civilian advisors can rattle off a dozen reasons why an American attack on Iran at this juncture would be foolish in the extreme and risk setting the Middle East afire.
Just some of those reasons would include:
• Shutting down not only Iran's oil production but Iraq's as well, and possibly triggering Iranian retaliation against the oil production and shipping in other nations around the Persian Gulf. Are we ready for $300 a barrel oil?
• Putting 160,000 U.S. troops and another 125,000 U.S. and foreign contractors in Iraq at much greater risk, as neighboring Iran signals Shiite allies there to begin all-out war against us and sends in its own well-armed guerrillas to lead the attack. Our 250-mile main supply lines in Iraq run through the heart of Shiite-controlled southern Iraq, and they would be cut. If we think we have troubles now with the shaky Iraq national government in Baghdad, which has already snuggled up to Tehran, what would war with Iran bring?
• Risking confrontation with the newly oil-rich and energized Russian Federation and President Bush's ex-KGB soul-mate Vladimir Putin. Since Putin has his hand on the natural gas and oil pipelines that keep our presumed allies in Europe from freezing to death, it is wise to assume that any support for an American attack on his ally Iran would be slim to none.
• Assuming that any U.S. air war against Iran would not be enough by itself -- and such air campaigns seldom are definitive in modern history -- where would we find the ground forces capable of doing the really hard part? Our Army and Marine Corps are stretched to the breaking point maintaining the force level in Iraq and Afghanistan. We have no strategic reserves available to help secure our allies in the Persian Gulf, much less to mount any offensive inside Iran.
When you add it all up, you have your answer: No one in his or her right mind would believe that attacking Iran now makes any sense at all.
But that doesn't mean that Bush and Cheney won't do it.
There were a lot of reasons why a preemptive strike into Iraq based on flimsy and bogus intelligence and far too few troops made no sense, yet they did it anyway, with trademark arrogance and ignorance.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Joseph L. Galloway is a military columnist for McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
© 2007 Miami Herald Media Company
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74 Comments so far
Show Alloluk - You are correct. For the moment there is no evidence for WMDs in Iran. And even if Iran will have WMD (in a few years) - There is no evidence that they plan to immediately use it.
The cute A or B example was part of theoretical, currently irrelevant, scenario given to peacenick.
The people here are expressing a lot of negativity!!!
We must fight back reasonably but consistently!!
Impeach and work on it
Work on getting other people into office
Work on every Congressmpersonw ho is caving in-- tomorrow is Monday- I am calling Schumer and cussing him out for supproting the new attorney jgeneral Muchasyey or whaterer his name for standing around and not denouncing waterboarding
We need to get yood and angry and call up and give these politicians hell! get a love !!!
Work for peace!!!
Every day do something
I am getitng signatures for barack Obama on the primary ballot in New York
WORK!!! Don't jsut sit and read common drems althougn that is very very important too- thanks for this article here.
Thanks to all of you- do not get discouraged-- keep it up!!!!!!!!!!
METAMORPH, of ocurse you are correct.
However, when one is up to their ass in alligators, it is often too late to drain the swamp. It won' hurt to keep trying though. Siouxrose has the right idea too, that won't hurt either.
This is simply all propaganda designed to dupe the public in accepting another illegal war for oil resources, and likud zionist expansion fantasies of the Israelite right wing extremists, the bully boys much like our right wing crazies the KKK, neocons, FoxNews, you get the picture. The right is wrong, the left will win the day with calm logic, facts, and wisdom as always. There will be no snowball effect by BushCo this time as the the country and the world won't fall for the same tricks leading to violence as it so foolishly did when the facts were "fixed around the policy."
I'm neither anti-semantic nor anti-syntactic, but I hate all the Jews who are pushing us towards a war with Iran, particularly those dual nationals in important policy positions. Why doesn't Israel fight its own wars instead of using our young soldiers as their pawns?
Siouxrose,
Unfortunately, while " It's helpful to hope that those least responsible will pay less, "
if we look at our experience with the Karmic consequences of global climate change, we can see that the least responsible (e.g. south pacific islanders, people of africa, the indigenous people of the Arctic) are already suffering the most.
I agree with you that "the US is an entity, and every citizen shares in some of its karmic account."
but, in the situation of global warming, I fear that those most responsible will suffer last, and least.
"And what if we talk about saving the lives of millions of people or even more? Will you do nothing and by thus allow a nuclear holocaust, or will you strike first in a preemptive strike, and be responsible for killing of a fraction of that number?"
So, you advocate for an attack upon Israel, or the US?
Possible future statement of concilliation from Pelosi and Reid after hustling fundig for the latest ME adventure through congress.
"Herr Bush and Herr Cheney have assured that neutralizing Iran will settle all Islamofascist issues and with this funding agreement we shall surely have peace in our time"
(Until the government of Pakistan--with nukes and delivery systems for them intact--disintegrates...or Turkey invades northwestern Iraq to neutralize Kurdish nationalists, etc.)
For the bad news, read above; for the good news, believe that the ruling elite would loose power and a new nation could form from the ashes.
The "plan" is to jam America's foot in the Middle East/Persian "bear trap" so deeply that, for our own survival we'll all have to give up everything, our rights and the future of our children.
IMHO.
RickinSF: You're probably right.
I would be alot easier on everyone if we just took about 80 cents on every tax dollar and wrote a big fat check directly to the Bush Dynasty and its m.i.c. backers. Cut out the middle-man, and write it to their personal bank accounts instead.
They get what they're after, we lose either way, but far fewer have to die.
templer -
Why do you continually insult Mr. Ahmadinejad?
I cannot agree with you that he is insane or otherwise mentally impaired in any way. Now if you said that bush was then I might agree with you.
Honestly you sound like Lee Bollinger, the fascist bigot that insulted Mr. Ahmadinejad when he came to speak. Note that bush didn't have the courage or the common decency to meet Mr. Ahmadinejad when he visited.
Dougrambo, you're right; less than 1/4 of the American people agree with the resident of the White House regarding the war and occupation of Iraq, but the Chimp says he's going to continue it and has no plans to leave Iraq.
The reason that 3/4 of what the citizens of this country want doesn't matter to this fascist tyrant and his cohorts is that he is a DICTATOR. The U.S. is not a democracy, yet it goes around the world attacking countries and "spreading democracy." How ironic is that.
whateveryousay,
Re: Terrorism is a reaction to injustice. Injustice is a result of greed. Greed is the fundamental illness that afflicts so many humans. Greedy people are the real terrorists.
A brilliantly succinct statement of the issue.
"Attacking Iran Makes No Sense"
As me mum told me long ago, "when there's something that doesn't make sense, there's something you don't know."
Attacking Iran makes no sense. What is it that I don't know?
To Goeff and siouxrose, I say, Can we make that a three way lunch? You have stated so beautifully my own sense of what and how to view the current unfolding of our world's drama. I have come to the conclusion that the best use of my energy and attention( to empower) is to continually ask for intervention/assistance from the more evolved beings of Light, and to trust that the help is there at every turn despite appearances. I also believe that my individual task is to anchor that Light, and to know in my heart that outcomes are less important than what we each do with our part in this drama that has been co-created for our education here on on beautiful earth school.
Karma is absolute and transcends time and space. While it may seem to some with a less developed view of it, that it cannot exist if the "evildoers" get off scott free while the innocent suffer, there are those who know that cause and effect is exact and goes with us from one lifetime to another. We are actually fortunate if we get to address our karmic debt in the same lifetime, but that is not always going to happen.
I see warriors on this site, and I see, tacticians. But alas, I fear there are too few "dreamers" amd Lightkeepers. Perhaps it does not matter. Numbers are not what this is all about. And for you more skeptical out there I say, Can it hurt anything to call on the angelic realms, especially Archangel Michael's legions of the Blue Flame, and ask for their assistence to cut\through the distortions and lies, and awaken the slumbering mass consciouness of our nation? How can that hurt???
So by Templar's logic, it is perfectly okay for Iran to attack Israel pre-emptively because Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons and it poses a threat to Iran.
TEMPLER wrote:
"Now if we change the parameter, and say that on track A there is a bus filled with 50 Kids, Will you switch the track and save the lives of 50 kids, but condemned the life of one driver B to death?
And what if we talk about saving the lives of millions of people or even more? Will you do nothing and by thus allow a nuclear holocaust, or will you strike first in a preemptive strike, and be responsible for killing of a fraction of that number?"
I'm sorry, but this is a dumb analogy, because the person switching the tracks is removed from being killed in any scenario, and therefore has no personal stake in the outcome, unlike anyone involved in the real-life situation. It also doesn't relate in that in real life, EITHER CHOICE could result in the death of everyone ON BOTH TRACKS.
You seem to be of the opinion that Iran is bent on the destruction of Israel, and that if they are allowed to develop a bomb (assuming they are even trying, which has yet to be demonstrated) they will necessarily attempt to use it on Israel. If you are basing this belief on the widely reported "fact" that Ahmadinejad stated a desire to "wipe Israel off the map", then you are basing your views on a fallacy. That "quote" is a widely-disseminated mistranslation of what he actually said, trotted out on every available occasion by neocons and their supporters to justify their saber-rattling, war-mongering ways. You know, just like how prior to the Iraq invasion, Saddam was labeled "a menace to the entire world". Don't fall for it. It's just more neocon propaganda.
You do know, don't you, that in 2003 the mullahs in Iran sent a communication to George W. via the Swiss ambassador, in which they basically pledged to give the U.S. everything it is now demanding of them, and George W's response was to ignore them and insult the ambassador for bringing him this information? Look it up, it's in the public record. He then went further and included them in his "axis of evil" speech. It appears if there's anyone bent on causing destruction here, it is our own leaders, not the Iranians, so stop making them out to be the bad guys. The Israelis don't have much moral high ground to stand on, either.
TheLorax - "templer - Why do you continually insult Mr. Ahmadinejad?
I cannot agree with you that he is insane or otherwise mentally impaired in any way. Now if you said that bush was then I might agree with you."
Here is some more information why I describe Ahmadinejad as a persona with a subside bomber mentality.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad_and_Israel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL_fD5cARmQ
I don't like Bush either. Are you happy now?
cedross "So by Templar's logic, it is perfectly okay for Iran to attack Israel pre-emptively because Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons and it poses a threat to Iran."
Now who is being childish?
Since your post suggest that you may have difficulties in reading, and since I don't want you to work hard by scrolling up search and re-read my comment, I'll try summarize it here:
---------- Original Message ----------
templer November 4th, 2007 9:55 pm
... In my opinion, a preemptive strike on Iranian Nuclear facilities and missile silos, can only be justified if it is the ONLY way to stop a Nuclear holocaust.
- I just want it to be clear that this is NOT the situation with Iran today.
-------- End of Original Message ----------
Since I assume you are not in grade 1 (I apologies if you are) , I hope you will understand the differences between:
1. cedross: Attack Country XYZ (Including civilians) because it is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons.
2. templer: Attack Nuklear sites and Missiles silo of country XYZ (No civilians) and only if this is the ONLY way to stop a Nuclear holocaust.
Think hard. Try to focus. Maybe ask you mom to help. I'm sure that eventually you will get it.
JayDee - You seems to misunderstood me.
I don't support an attack on Iran. I want peace and prosperity for all.
I was talking about a theoretical possibility that is not the case today.
I repeated it at least 4 times. (Where a Nuclear holocaust is imminent unless stopped by a preemptive strike...)
Do you want me to say again that this is not the case with Iran today?
As for Ahmadinejad, (Who is 2nd in command in Iran)
The "wipe Israel off the map" speech could be understood in one of two meanings:
1. Erase Israel from the map (Genocide).
or
2. Erase Israel's regime (Democracy) and replace it with something else (Probably Islamic theocracy)
I'm not happy with either case.
There are other comments published by Ahmadinejad. Including holocaust denial. Ethnic cleansing (In 2005 he suggested to transfer all the Jews of Israel to Germany and Austria. Only last month he offered to ethnically cleanse all the Jews of Israel to be relocated to Alaska and Canada)
I lost 80% of my family in the holocaust, and I don't need this jerk to tell me it's a myth.
what you people fail to understand is that the whole idea of democracy is an illusion here in America they say get out and vote make a difference its all lies we have this thing called the electoral college and the people chosen to to vote for each region are not bound by law to follow the consensus of the nation for example 2000 vote bush/gore im not saying gore would have handle it any better but the country overall vote theres nothing you can all the poltitions are corrupted sure we have freedoms some other countries dont but we cant really change anything inless we get rid of all of congress and senate it shouldn't be a career its a civic duty and it should chosen at random by your social security number and should last longer then two terms
that would get rid of some of the crazy people in D.C but inless some major changes happen to our goverment nothing will change they give you choices but the result is always going to be the same they all have hidden ajendas when there running they promise it will be different but as soon as they get elected more of the same how about for once you follow threw and actually fix the important things like health care and education social security nope instead you take money form thoes things to make your war well right here now i would to announce right here on commonderams.com that i will be running for president in the presidential race in 2020 that will be the first time i will be able to run and i hope we are all still around by then if this guy in office doesnt have us living in some damn cave because we cant go outside because of the nuclear winter
"theres nothing you can all the poltitions are corrupted sure we have freedoms some other countries dont but we cant really change anything inless we get rid of all of congress and senate it should be a career its a civic duty and it should chosen at random by your social security number and should last longer then two terms" i meant for it to say it souild not be a career
This is what always happens when you get a religious extremist of the highest order in a position of power. I am starting to believe like my husband does these people are trying to start the mythical Armageddon. They honestly believe all of that nonsense that comes out of the Bible. About the second coming of Christ and what have you. I personally have not read the Bible in so many years I am not familiar with the story anymore. At least, not to talk intelligently on it. Except to know these are dangerous people who are in power in our country. They are the ones who have their finger on the nuclear weapons button. That prospect is truly a frightening one. I personally am more afraid of Bush and Company than I am Iran. They are enough 'fringe lunatic' that they are likely to start World War III without giving it much thought. I am starting to believe that religious people should not be allowed in any seat of power. Most of them are very unstable people. They aren't capable of making a sane and rational decision regarding the welfare of this country. If they use religion in their campaign I am no longer going to vote for them.