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TechnoratiScientists Warn Arctic Sea Ice is Melting At Its Fastest Rate Since Records Began
The sea ice of the Arctic will melt further and faster than at any time since records began nearly 30 years ago, according to the latest data collected by a satellite survey of the polar region.
Scientists warned yesterday that the sea ice is already approaching the record minimum set in September 2005, even with a further month of the summer melting season still remaining.
This year has seen one of the most rapid rates of sea ice melting, which began in spring after one of the most disappointing winters for ice formation. "Unless something unusual happens we're definitely on track for a record loss of sea ice. We're on track to shatter all records," said Mark Serreze, an Arctic specialist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University in Denver. "The rates of sea ice loss this year are really rather remarkable. Some of the daily rates of loss are the biggest we've ever seen. Things are happening really fast," Dr Serreze said.
The area covered by Arctic sea ice has been monitored by American satellites since 1979. Sea ice, which floats on the surface of the ocean, naturally expands in surface coverage each winter and recedes in summer, but there has been a significant overall loss recorded during the past 27 years.
The rate of loss also appears to have accelerated since 2002 and this year has seen one of the fastest melt seasons on record. In July of this year, more sea ice melted than for any month on record. The surface area covered by the ice in July was 3.13 million square miles, about 347,492 square miles below the area recorded for July 2005 - an area seven times the size of England.
"Unless conditions change in an unprecedented way, the Arctic will continue to lose ice for at least another month," said the National Snow and Ice Data Centre. "At this point in the 2007 melt season, this much is already clear: the Arctic is experiencing an unprecedented sixth consecutive year with much less sea ice than normal, and it looks like this year's sea ice-melt season may herald a new and steeper rate of decline," it added.
Some computer models used by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predict the Arctic will be virtually ice free by the summer of 2070. However, other computer models suggest that the year of an ice-free Arctic summer could come as early as 2030 or 2040.
Dr Serreze said that even these pessimistic predictions may have overestimated the resilience of the Arctic sea ice. He said that we may have already reached the tipping point when there is a rapid disintegration. "The big question is whether we are already there or whether the tipping point is still 10 or 20 years in the future. My guts are telling me we may well be there now," Dr Serreze said.
Most polar specialists agree that as more ice is lost in summer, the Arctic is liable to heat up faster than normal as a result of a positive feedback in the climate - instead of solar energy being reflected from the surface of the white ice, it is absorbed by the open, darker ocean, leading to even more melting of the ice.
The Arctic is already heating up at a faster rate than many other parts of the globe. While average temperatures on Earth rose by about 0.6C since 1900, the regional temperatures of the Arctic have risen by 2C to 3C.
Polar bears, which rely on sea ice to hunt for seals in summer, are already showing signs of malnutrition because they have to swim further between ice floes. Scientists believe the species could quickly go extinct if there is no sea ice at all in summer.
Paradoxically, the loss of sea ice will give Arctic countries such as Russia, Denmark, Canada, Norway and the US easier access to the parts of the seabed that are thought to be rich in oil and gas - the same fossil fuels that have exacerbated the global warming that has caused the sea ice to melt in the first place. "It's really rather disappointing when we talk about 25 per cent of the world's oil and gas reserves being under the Arctic when the loss of sea ice is the reason why we can get to it," Dr Serreze said.
In addition to record melting of sea ice in summer, the past two winters have seen a failure of sea ice to reform to the extent recorded in previous winters. This has meant that there is less sea ice in spring, and a greater chance of record summer ice loss.
© 2007 The Independent
24 Comments so far
Show AllKristain zealots. What a bunch of liars they are. If they truely believed they were going to heaven than none of the nonsense that goes on here would bother them.
The truth is they don't know but persecuting the rest of us makes them feel better.
If we were all the same religion, same color, same height, same weight, same smarts, they would still find something to have a war about.
ALL LEFTIES MUST DIE!!!!
Wow. Sure am glad we have a bunch of right-wing christiaan zealots in power who depise science, and think some deity will zap our souls outta this mess even though we're not smart enough to control our own numbers or change the balance of CO2 in the atmoshpere. Well, if there was a heaven, I'm sure Charles Darwin would be looking down laughing his azz off..... Evolution never stops. The dumb species: take Homobrain Neanderthalis for example ( the fossil burning Neocons who deny this is happening,) These relatives of Bushmonkeys would rather perish in their own waste products than admit they were wrong. Happily, even if we nuke each other in the middle of a waterworld nightmare, something will survive and take over the planet. Geckos and Bacteria can and do live at Cherynobol. Thank Goodness for the Hayflick limit. I don't think I want to be around a hundred years from now!
But, as the geologic record shows, this might turn out to be a pretty nice place 15,000 years from now without all you human around!
I never dreamed I'd be here at the end of times . . . .
Nor did I ever imagine that not only would our pollution and destruction harm us, but that it could so seriously jeopardize this planet's existence -- that, in fact, the earth may not survive our stupidities.
Temperatures will continue to increase --
Certainly scientists have known about Global Warming since the late 1950's --
Certainly the after-effects of the dropping of nuclear weapons included increased temperatures --
Violence is basically suicidal.
Capitalism is deadly.
Bush did it Kathy, he's going to heaven and you and the rest of us bloggers here aren't invited.___ We're gonna miss you Kathy.
Thank you Billy, one less frantic worry taken off of the table. Sort of. At least our home is situated 6,000 feet above sea level. Have you gone to the archves and read my reply to your last comment on the article, shrinking Arctic ice incredible? It was among last Wednesday's. If you can, would your read it and reply. Thank you, Kem.
Hi Kem,
You are correct that warming permafrost can release methane from defrosting methane hydrate. This is indeed a serious global warming risk.
Most methane hydrate is undersea rather than in permafrost however. Increasing sea levels will actually, for a given temperature, tend to stabilize this methane hydrate because of the increase in pressure. If the sea were to warm up without increasing the depth, this methane hydrate would also tend to become unstable like the permafrost.
I don't think the atmospheric methane is at risk of reaching explosive levels but the global warming impact is severe at a much lower concentration.
Bill
I want to know the real reason for shutting down Hubble. I want to know if they saw something out there. And now we're getting stories about diverting meteors in space with lasers.
Yeah the Mayans are looking fairly good with their 2012 prediction. Kinda eerie it coincides with an election year here...
Well it is only five years till Dec, 2012, while this might seem tin foil hat time, I figure the Mayans had something going for them and might be right on the money. Too bad the priests had to burn their books, we might have learned something. Other than what the pope liked to blather. So hang on to your hats and don't count on these estimates that continue to be short. We are screwed for sure, just what is going to happen is going to be a show. Grab the popcorn and a good chair the fix is in, just a matter of finalizing the deal.
NIETZSCHE,___ I read that report in a scientific journal, which stated there was enough methane gas in the permafrost to easily make it 5%, but those scientists aren't always correct. There is enough there to kill us all though, as we both said,___ we'll see.
It isn't just the Arctic ice melting, the largest ammont of frozen water on Earth is in Anarctica and it's quickly melting too. The natsy thing about global warming, no matter what the reason is this.
Locked up in the Arctic permafrost are millions of tons of methane gas. The permafrost, which has not melted for millions of years is melting, and when and if, enough of that methane gas is released into our atmosphere, we are gonna be history.___ KA-BOOM!!!
Paranoia?___ Well no, it is just a fact and a certanty, just like a coal mine explosion. When the mixture of methane in oxygen reaches 5%, it will explode. All it will take is the right mixture and some camper lighting his propane stove, or a bolt of lightening or a rocket launch, any spark. Earth's entire atmosphere will be on fire. There wll be no life left on Earth except perhaps some deep sea life, worms and bacteria for awhile.
Therefore, global warming is not a joke nor is it a myth. Whatever the cause, it better not get to the point where a geat deal of the methane gas is released or humanity is finished on this planet. It could be just a couple of years.___ We'll see.
Hey, who knows about the tectonic plates and how they respond to global warming?
It is called marketing. Some people believe in global warming because it was marketed to them, same with the people who don't believe in it. All the news shows, the billboards, news papers, msm film, sit-coms, its all a brainwasher. Its hard to blame people who are dumb...but we let them in office. We should have marketed this stuff better. In the olden days you would get a public service announcement, today the average joe believes in the coke ads and thinks the news is gods word of truth. My high school history book said Jackson was a good president and person. I rest my case.
Tharn...
Everything climate-wise is happening faster than ever before and faster than all computer modeling.
It's called a tipping point. And the dominoes are falling all around us. We're still just too damn scared to admit it. Deer in the headlights syndrome.
BugsB, you are right of course. Some of us joke because it's how we deal with being scared sh**less. Humanity IS a juggernaut. We eat up anything we can get our paws on. I believe, looking at our shared human history, that you paint a version of the likely scenario. The details are unknown, but life on earth is changing fast and there are far, far too many human beings. Our system appears quite unbreakable without an outside force acting on it. We could all not get into cars tomorrow and there would suddenly be hope ...but each person has a life, a family, a hunger to get out ...all those egos and stomachs, mine included. We all know what global warming is, and we all see how little we're doing to change. Recycle your junk mail and pat yourself on the back! What is to be done? A scientific, outside-of-humanity perspective might say the only thing that could save us as a species would be another, more short-term crisis that would pre-empt global warming. Say a very bad plague that would reduce our numbers to only several millions or less. Horrible. Horrible to even think. But it would cut carbon emissions, and it might be all there is to keep us from full biological extinction ...nature pre-empts us from wiping ourselves out! As for much of the animal world, I think it's safe to say there is no hope at all.
"The cockroach will inherit the earth."
The bi-pedal variety have already inherited the earth.
The cockroach will inherit the earth.
Consider the world we bequeath to our children.*
We don't want to believe just how bad it is so we remain in denial. There are those who instantly grow angry at the suggestion that global warming is real. They impose their denial upon us all. Fifty years ago before we had ever thought of global warming as a possibility, say you had asked what would constitute evidence that should provoke action on the issue? Had you suggested then, that the polar ice cap would be melting away so rapidly, you would have heard people say that no one would be insane enough to have waited that long before something would be done.
Yet here we are, the ice cap is shrinking fast... too fast indeed and yet people still insist global warming is a myth. What we face isn't only more denial of how bad it is getting. In the face of such awesome evidence, we also are in denial of just how much misery humanity faces and how quickly that will hit us! The juggernaut, unstoppable and catastrophic in extent, is that each year's new worsening cannot be subtracted from the accumulating total. However bad it gets ...it will stay that way and of course the next year brings yet still more worsening. I think we just can't wrap our minds around how bad this will all be for humanity.
Our world becomes dark science fiction. Consider what the world we bequeath to our children. That unrecognizable Earth our grandchildren will be forced to live in ...will be so very grim indeed. Even for the wealthiest and the most powerful, as they have no place to go either. Heat, drought, failing crops, water wars (real bullets type wars), diseases... Oh yeah...I almost forgot...in the next couple of decades add another three or four billion more people into that mix. Only we ...still have the luxury of denial. We will take that with us when we go and what we leave behind will not be denied by anyone.
They're gonna need the oil to heat the boom towns when gold is discovered and the rush begins. I'm raising sled dogs, gonna make a fortune.
Better plant those flags all you post-global-warming imperialists! There's oil in them thare (sea) hills! Charlie Chaplin was right, it is all a joke in the end.
Oh great. In addition to natural positive feedback loops accelerating global warming, now we can get at even more fossil fuels and dump ever increasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Bring on those SUVs!
That tipping point is on a slippery slope and scientists are underestimating the capacity of humankind to take advantage of a disaster to make it even worse.
there is not enough methane anywhere to produce sufficient concentrations in the atmosphere for combustion BUT methane accelerates the runaway greenhouse effect many times faster than carbon dioxide.---No matter which of us is right it won't be long now. As you say We'll see---won't we? (but not for long)