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Wall Street, Iraq and the Declining Dollar
The disastrous impact on the economy of George W. Bush's response to the attacks of September 2001 is still being measured. On Friday of last week the Bush Administration announced that it would not renominate Gen. Peter Pace as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Administration's decision to throw a loyal supporter overboard avoids a messy confirmation hearing that would have further focused a war-weary nation's attention on the past. But sometimes looking backward can help us anticipate the future.
In February of this year, Rep. Henry Waxman's Committee on Oversight and Government Reform revealed fresh details of how the Coalition Provisional Authority dumped $12 billion in cash--in $100 bills--into Iraq in 2004. Multiple flights of huge C-130 transport planes were required to deliver 363 tons of greenbacks--a modest portion of the $510 billion we have spent so far in Iraq and Afghanistan. By certain measures, this may not be America's most expensive war. But the worst economic effects are yet to come.
No matter how the Iraq War ends, it is clear that the United States is incapable of militarily securing territory against the wishes of a hostile population. And the Iraq War is at the heart of two alarming trends that are likely to have a negative impact on America's position in the world: The demand for oil is rising while the supply is declining, and the demand for the US dollar is declining while the supply of dollars is rising.
In the four years since the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi oilfields and associated infrastructure have sustained 400 attacks. And because of the situation on the ground, Iraqi oil production, at 1.95 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2007, was far short of the government's goal of 2.5 million barrels per day and the previous peak of 3.7 million under Saddam. In this asymmetrical war, our enemies are spending a fraction of our costs on improvised explosive devices, chlorine gas and suicide bombers, while we invest heavily in noneffective weapons systems and force structures.
US oil and gas production peaked in the early '70s, and we are now by far the world's largest energy importer. The largest oilfields in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Syria, Yemen and Oman are in decline, as are most oilfields in the former Soviet Union, Canada, Central and South America, and on-shore Africa. New fields will be discovered and new technologies brought to bear, but costs of production will be higher than in the past and will require more expensive investments in equipment and technology.
Even as existing fields age, the new economies of India and China require more and more oil to fuel their impressive growth. Although a worldwide depression might result in a temporary drop in the price of oil and other commodities, the long-term imbalance between growing demand and declining supply will eventually reassert itself, creating price increases over time.
Contemporaneously with the supply/demand imbalance in oil and other hard commodities, the Bush Administration's response to 9/11 has weakened the position of the dollar in the world. The President's request that Americans continue to spend has struck an all-too-sympathetic chord with the American people. The trade deficits caused by that spending have created a current account deficit equal to 6.2 percent of GDP, sending trillions of dollars into the hands of foreigners.
While we continue to import goods of much greater value than those we export, thus flooding the world with dollars, Bush has pursued a policy of what some have dubbed "military Keynesianism"--that is, the combination of low taxes and high military expenditures. This dynamic forces the Federal Reserve to print money and foster easy credit policies, which will eventually result in higher interest rates, inflation or both.
So the printing presses are spewing out more dollars, which are being collected by China, Japan and others. And those countries are showing signs of concern that they have too much of their foreign exchange reserves tied up in our currency. Likewise, certain other nations are evidencing a declining interest in accepting the dollar as a medium of exchange. It was in October 2000 that Saddam insisted that Iraq's oil be paid for in euros. But now Russia wants payment for the energy it exports in rubles. Venezuela and Iran insist on euros. Kuwait has recently unpegged its dinar from the dollar in favor of a basket of currencies.
The dollar has indeed shown symptoms of its decline in popularity during the Bush years. The dollar has weakened against the euro, gold, copper and other hard assets and currencies. When Bush came in to office, for example, you could get .987 euros for every dollar. Now you can only get .75. You could say that at $65 per barrel, oil is getting more valuable... or you could say the value of the dollar has declined as measured by oil.
Mainstream economists seem to agree that best-case, the dollar will continue a stately decline, but in a world where the United States has lost so much respect, where we continue to flood the world with dollars and borrow to finance our consumer habit, we could find that one of those sharp, depression-inducing discontinuities occurs--like, say, a run on the dollar.
We are continuing to import 60 percent of the 20.6 million barrels of oil we use daily. And though the size and stability of our economy is likely to insure a demand for the dollar at some level, oil that anyone can buy for hard currency may be getting scarcer. Governments have begun to do deals aimed at taking oil off the market for their own account--deals like the ones China has done with Angola, Brazil, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela and Sudan. South Korea has just announced it will follow suit.
If our military cannot secure oil by force, and if oil is destined to cost us more and more of a declining currency to buy what is available, then "brand USA" is in trouble. When Bush leaves office, this country will have to begin the difficult task of reversing some very bad trends in the military, fiscal, monetary and energy areas. The pollution of his legacy transcends mere politics. Ken Miller is chairman and CEO of Ken Miller Capital LLC in New York.
© 2007 The Nation
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21 Comments so far
Show AllLet's not forget the British Pound, worth $1.49 when Bush came to power, now worth $2.00. The Aussie Dollar was worth $0.56, now $0.83 (and they are supposed to be our closest friends!). The Canadian Dollar was worth $0.67, now $0.93. And finally, the Chinese Yuan, did cost $0.12, now worth $0.13. I guess we are being subsidized by the Chinese; all hell will break out when the Chinese revalue the Yuan. The USD will be a 3rd-world currency.
Bush policies have acted as if America is the prey. They dismantle more than just the constitution and our civil liberties. They weaken us. Under Bush we saw our manufacturing go off shore and american profits be invested in building up the infrastructure and economies of our competitors. We cllose the factories here and built them over there. We compete by buying? We buy more than anyone else is our only economic strength? That looks to change as we are forced to buy cheaper goods thus shooting ourselves in the foot even further. We gush money outwards. Meanwhile the world is destabilzing more and more, the rapidly changing climate may preciptate an economic crisis on it's own and the world has working around us rather than with us. Bush borrows and ties our hands tighter each time we do. Do they like America? One wonders actually. They take us down so quickly. So they say Globalization is key and follow the loyalty to profits and not the flag. Americans feel increasingly powerless and betrayed. The rich get richer and help our competition. We are asked to applaud their profit at doing so. WHY?
They give themselves tax cuts and then we see states selling off publicly paid for infrastructure like toll roads and toll bridges to corporations (including foreign corporations). Selling off the furniture to pay the rent? These are revenue generating (and paid for by the tax payer) and never intended to be relinquished. Why don't corporations build a new road or bridge? The cost is far beyond the cut rate deals they are getting. We are being sold off as well as being sold out. DO they really like...America? One can only wonder.
The decline of the US dollar is, in the long-term, a function of capital flows. As a recovering foreign exchange trader, there is absolutely no way the Yankees buck is ever going to see parity with the euro again, a decent level with the yen, or 1.50 to the pound unless three things happen.
First, America's trade debt problem has to be fixed -- these deficits are not sustainable year in and year out. The US has effectively undertaken unilateral disarmament in trade negotiations from NAFTA to the WTO. Access to markets abroad must be a sine qua non for other nations acquiring access to American markets.
Second, the federal government has to get its spending in line with its income. That doesn't mean cuts in school lunches or AIDS research. The only place that can be cut enough to have any impact on the federal deficit is the military. The missile defense program doesn't work and can't be made to work so we can stop spending there. Nuclear subs are great if the enemy doesn't live in caves in Afghanistan (subs don't work in mountains or deserts) so the submarine program can go on hold. And while we're at it, does the US Air Force have to be in an arms race with the US Navy -- the USN has the second biggest air force in the world.
Finally, America needs an economy in which there is a prominent and growing middle class. Families in debt to the eyeballs is the result of a deliberate attack on middle class and working class America that began when Reagan took office in 1981. A quarter of a century on, the American middle class is in lots of trouble, and the American working class is even worse off.
I think you're absolutely right: the policies of the U.S., accelerated under Bush, have doomed the dollar to either a gradual or tumultuous demise. It's easy for anyone with even a modest understanding of economics to see that, but astonishingly, the vast majority of so called investors around the world still have faith in the dollar. Clearly, the U.S. government doesn't have faith in the dollar, which is why it is using its military muscle to steal the largest energy deposits it can get its hands on. When the dollar (and most other major fiat currencies) collapse, what will still have value? Energy.
Dave
you read an article like this, and you just wonder what the hell our elites (not just the bushies, btw) are thinking. what's the end game? are they just milking the situation for their corporate patrons, and they'll get out before the crash, like ken lay at enron?
anyway, i know this sounds bad, but the collapse of the dollar might be the best thing for the us and global economy. the short term would be real bad, but in the long run. dollars would have to be spent here in the us, we couldn't go nuts for oil like we do now cuz we couldn't afford it, the us would have to make a decision about guns or butter, there would be a collapse of corporate power in this country, reinvestment in this country could help a lot of the economy, and we could direct our oil dollars into the environment and alt. energies. oh yeah, and we could stop producing/buying all the mounds of worthless crap we do.
due to the trade and federal budget deficits, it's gonna happen sometime. the big crash. what will we do then?
Shame on the insanely greedy bastards that control the USA. It's time for us to reinvent our country. Maybe we could try to put together a government that is truly "by and for the people". Maybe such an idea is too radical and optimistic for some, but it shouldn't be! Dennis Kucinich is the man with the good plans.
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In Case you missed it:
John Perkins on "The Secret History of the American Empire: Economic Hit Men, Jackals, and the Truth about Global Corruption"
June 5, 2007
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/06/05/149254&mode=thread&tid=25
Just who are "our enemies"? Are they "our enemies" because we waged war on them, or did they start it by waging war against "us"?
For the author's edification, Military Keynesianism has been THE mode of US economy since 1939, not something suddenly discovered and "pursued" by BushCo. Further, the FED isn't "forced" to print money! That is done by the banks through fractional banking. Talk about exposing your ignorance! And the author runs an investment house?!?!
It's a shame so many errors riddle an otherwise okay summary of Peak Oil and its potential economic inpact.
It's all part of the larger plan. First, increase the amount of wealth held by the elite, thereby insuring against future economic catastrophe. Then launch said catastrophe which, of course, will only effect the rest of us, depressing wages further, raising unemployment, and, their favorite, increasing the "fear of homelessness" level. In other words, do what we tell you or you're out on your ass - and out of luck, cause social services have been gutted. Meanwhile, Iraqi oil production remains deliberately low, thereby guaranteeing high profits for Exxon and friends, many of which are supposedly also representatives of "the people" being screwed. And if anyone tries to call in our debt, we'll be in a position to seriously disrupt their energy supplies and, hence, their economies. Which is why China and company haven't called in the markers. Yet.
ok, frank1569, i buy most of it, makes sense. except the chinese, ruskies, india, et al, are not stupid. wouldn't they, esp. the chinese, be doing something to preempt or thwart US attempts to preemptively control the global economy thru energy control?
If Kucinich was for real, he would join the Greens instead of keeping progs in the corporate Dem fold. On the fat chance that he wins the nomination who here believes he can change corporate domination within this corrupt system of legalized bribery? Gravel can change things by making We the People the lawmakers instead of the politicians, with his National Initiative. The grassroots Greens already have--they don't take corporate bribes so they can't be bought.
I'm sorry but as stupid and selfish as the powers that be in the government, the Fed and Western Banks are, the biggest fault of the current situation lies with the American people themselves. They've sat on their collective ass for decades and have voted the same crooks into office time and time again. For Christ sake, the country voted GEORGE BUSH AGAIN in 2004 (I know the election was stolen, but a good amount of people still voted for Bush anyway, anything over 40% is scary)! There are poor, powerless people in developing countries, going through far worse persecution, who are organizing and demanding policy alternatives. As the US declines, what are the American people doing? Nothing but voting for the same group, roughly, and expecting different results. What do you call a person who does the same thing over and over again and expects different results?
Not to worry about U.S. dollar, folks, the AMERO is already on its way with THE AMERICAN UNION [Mexico, the U.S., Canada] already "Treatyfied" with signatures of Bush, [then Mex Prez] Vincente Fox, and Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin on March 23, 2005. Interestingly a copy of this TREATY asked for under FOIA now has a mysteriously unsigned space where Dubya's signature was. A precaution of disappearing ink in his fountain pen maybe.
From: www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=North_American_Union
Quoted Material from above, with quotes from article by Jerome Corsi:
The "plan to create" a North American Union in 2010 as a regional government—comprising a collective government for the United States, Canada, and Mexico—is "directly stated only" in the May 2005 task force report, "Building a North American Community," published by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Jerome Corsi wrote June 26, 2006.
The "blueprint" which President George W. Bush is following to create a North American Union was "laid out" in the May 2005 report, Corsi wrote May 19, 2006. "The CFR report connects the dots between the Bush administration's actual policy on illegal immigration and the drive to create the North American Union."
Bush is "pursuing a globalist agenda to create a North American Union, effectively erasing our borders with both Mexico and Canada," which, Corsi wrote, is "the hidden agenda behind the Bush administration's true open borders policy."
The plan, Corsi wrote, is "contained" in the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America, "little noticed" by the mainstream media when President Bush, Mexico's President Vicente Fox, and Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin "created it" March 23, 2005, in a summit held at Waco, Texas.
A North American Union is being created "through a process of governmental regulations" and without ever "having to bring the issue before the American people for a clear referendum or vote," Corsi wrote May 24, 2006. [END QUOTED MATERIAL]
----------------------------
Interestingly, Condoleeza Rice flew to Canada to meet with the Canadian Prime Minister and the new Mexican President on March 23, 2007, to celebrate the second anniversary of the signing of this summit treaty. However, on the U.S. government site, called the Security & Prosperity Partnership, you'll find a hazy load of a general b.s. of glowing words about Security & Prosperity that masks all the actual plans in the works. So what else is new? SITE: usinfo.state.gov/is/Archive/2005/Mar/23-209281.html . But evidently, unbeknownst to the Congressional majorities, THE AMERICAN UNION, not even alluded to there, is alive and well and the AMERO is to replace the good old U.S. Dollar in the nick, nick, nick of time likely, when it has become a worthless piece of paper.
The tri-nation agreement includes a MEGA TRANSPORT CORRIDOR, primarily for MEGA-TRUCKS on the proposed I-69, the "largest engineering project undertaken in the U.S., and I-35, already called NAFTA'S SUPER HIGHWAY, toting goods back & forth from South to North plus rail lines and other auto traffic, with Texas getting MEGA-DOLLARS for construction and management. The environmental impact already figured out by the usual folks who care about the country and the planet stats out to ABSOLUTELY HORRENDOUS. "Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas anymore, but, look, we can shop at all the strip malls and eat at McDonald's, and take a peek on the sneak into all the new porn palaces and strip joints. But where are all the family farms, Toto?"
From a comprehensive, super-best article by Jerry Mazza, Site: onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_1883.shtml regarding the merging and surging of NAFTA [North American Free Trade Agreement, CAFTA - Central American Free Trade Agreement [Bush's Baby], and AN AMERICAN UNION UNDER BUSH:
"The idea is to mix the United States, North and eventually South Americas into one banquet for the multi-national corporations to gobble. In the chewing and gnashing of nations, their laws and unions, labor would be fairly well digested into you know what." [and so it goes middle-class America when "wages" will be equalized on the down side - but, not to worry, your AMERO will be good for a while at the local DOLLAR STORE. The Corporation just needs a little time to change its name to THE AMERO STORE.]
Also read: www.monthlyreview.org/0206vogel.htm - all about THE NAFTA CORRIDORS & CHEAP LABOR - Richard D. Vogel
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Also check out THE AMERICAN UNION on google.com for site/article info, and when you finish your reading and research, your hair will be standing on end - guaranteed. This seems like the best-kept secret in town, with all that multi-national WAR hoopla and those ongoing nasty investigations. "What? Me worry"? says Bush. "We and my loyal buddies are cleanin' up on these wars, but we're gonna' be richer still no matter what happens, and especially in my own home state of TEXAS. Papa ought to be real proud now."
A ranting Phyllis Schafly and her congressman know. First time I've agreed with her, and it's hard to say who knows other than the usual on-the-take, sleaze-factor politicians who "serve" us and cozy up with many among the currently registered 38,000 lobbyists.
Think it's safe to say that very few members of our citizenry know. SURPRISE!
Canada and the USA in some sort of UNION??
Not likely, It would be like mixing water and oil.
I mean, nothing personal, but, even if you went looking, you could hardly find even a few % of the population willing to consider such a thing.
Probably the same attitude south of the border.
Maybe some generation in the future that has been properly prepared via the media.
Let's be honest . . . this Bush regime is here to bankrupt the Treasury . . . moving the money into their own pockets in every way possible.
And, I consider this recklessness, this outlaw government, this treason as the highest of impeachable offenses.
Here we are with China and Mexico being among our largest financial backers -- !!! What -- ???
Any chance that Mexico should be investing in their own country? Providing jobs for the millions who come here to work? Any links between these outrages?
We all know that globalization and free trade are designed to weaken the working class - many of whom had become the middle class. As far as the economic and power elite's where concerned the pie was just being spread around a little to evenly. When you you have the average John Doe buying Waterford Glasses and fusi fusi wines at Costco and Master degrees are as popular as bachelors where in the 50's something drastic had to be done. Equality is a dirty word to the rich and powerful who what to get more rich and powerful. The deck needed to be reshuffled in the elite's favor, so enter Rony Ray-gun and his anti-government fumigations. Deregulation becomes the mantra of the right with all it's sub texts like the abolition of the fairness doctrine which gives free rein to the hired tongues like Rush and his thousands imitators along with the more sophisticated version in the right wing think tanks designed to compete, disempower, and eventually infiltrate the university community and stamp out any last vestige of legitimate intelligent social construct for the betterment of humanity.
In fast succession we got NAFTA, off shoring, out sourcing, etc. culminating in the near corprofascistic take over off our government under the Bush cartel. Most of this is fairly obvious to regular reader of this sight. What I would like to point out, and again not that original, is that Nationalism and patriotism are basically emotion forms of exploitation and manipulation to further global hegemony ambitions.
Just like in the 80's corporate raiders would buy healthy but undervalued companies and then cannibalize them for profit, current corporate/government raiders are dismantling whole countries like the U.S. and squeezing all the life blood out of the middle class for their own greedy gain.
Of course the militarization, the deficit spending, the increasing imbalance of payment, the loss of industry, etc. is not sustainable but that is the intended effect. It's slash and burn economics. When this country is barren they will move on to the next and let this one fallow in 3rd class poverty for who cares how long. The next target will be any country who has managed to pull themselves out of poverty to the middle class level, if in fact it is ever possible to do so in a world of globalization and so called free trade, because it is always a race to the bottom for the common worker.
These are the same people when asked what would be the most ideal country for industry said: a huge barge that could be towed to any country with the cheapest wages and the least environmental regulations. Sadly this is fast becoming almost any country, especially the big ones. Just like fish, they will get around to the smaller ones later, after the trophy ones are used up.
Obviously none of this is sustainable as industrialization and technology has rendered our once vast planet into a mere exhausted chain letter that is about to run out of new suckers.
Answer: Simple living with like minded people banning together in various ways of growing organic food, sharing resources, ideas and love.
Become the example!
The World Currency Crisis by Murray N. Rothbard
http://www.geocities.com/ecocorner/intelarea/nmr4.html
Cee Miracles,
When I read your post, I stumbled on an idea that you haven't mentioned. To save the dollar, I think Bush has some brilliant idea by getting into a union with Canada and Mexico and bringing a new currency. The idea is this:
When the union is formed and the new banknote AMERO is printed, the union will announce that each AMERO is worth US$10.00, and that everybody has exactly 30 days to exchange the old US$ to AMERO. That way China, Japan and other countries will have to exchange their vast US$ reserves before the set time and before US$ becomes a useless piece of paper.
Result: The U.S. pays 10 cent on a dollar, and buys all of it back. After a few months the union is dissolved (ostensibly) due to disagreement. Brilliant idea, or devilish scheme?!
Ralph442: Good analysis. I see a worldwide revolution of labor precisely on account of this rape, burn, pillage and plunder paradigm, the new global warfare taken on an economic scale. Corn for ethanol robbing the poor of a viable food source (by articially increasing its market price); NAFTA "free trade" rules that fix the deck against the little nations and their indigenous populations; the insane "supreme court" ruling that allotted to genetic blueprinting an equivalent "intellectual copyright" protection that freezes those from India out of ownership of the very seed stocks they've cultivated for many generations; the price of generic AIDS drug (for impoverished Africans) being challenged by big pharma as a bar to their profits! And on and on. Martin Luther King understood that our universe arcs towards justice, and eventually, I see an international modern version of the scene in Cecil B. Demille's film, THE TEN COMMANDMENTS (about Moses)... "Let my people free!" as a global mantra. OF course the effects of global warming, unconditional consumerism on the part of a few developed wealthy nations that directly threatens the climatic wellbeing of 3rd world people 'round the globe will also add fuel to the fire of righteous indignation. There is only so much people will take, and while The World Social Forum has provided a venue that gives voice to the various and sundry outrages engineered by these global elites sick on the disease of greed, if these peaceful initiatives lead to no valid changes in WTO and World Bank policy, then we'll see a lot more initiatives like those of Chavez. The modern corporations ACT like pharaohs, as if all resources are theirs... and the rest of us slaves, lucky to eke out enough for subsistence labor.
BugsBBunny III,
Re: DO they really like…America? One can only wonder.
In the words of Thomas Jefferson: "Merchants have no country. The mere spot they stand on does not constitute so strong an attachment as that from which they draw their gains."
Cee Miracles:
I haven't checked out your links, but if you're right, The North American Union is set to become public knowledge in 2010.
If there is anyone out there who still thinks that there will be an election in Nov 2008, wake up and smell the coffee.
Cheney / Bush will still be in power in 2009 in order to put into effect this nice little union of theirs. They've already taken the precaution to make it happen irrespective of the wishes of the citizenry. They will put themselves in power again just to make to sure. AND, they'll let another 911 type situation happen again in order to attack some country somewhere just so that they can appoint themselves again.
Nice trick. On an intellectual level, I say well done. On every other level, I'm speechless.
Kudos to Conscience, Ralph 442 & others for serious thought. Military Keynesianism has several facets: in the 50s & 60s it served effectively as a siphon on the economy to prevent overheating/ overproduction / depression cycle. The only other option is to condone democratization (Countervailing Power ) etc. of the citizenry, especially the working class, and a lightening of the work-load, which would dangerously lead to a healthy society, and necessitate bringing the rest of the world "on board," like in the manner attempted by Vice President, Chm. of the Board of Economic Warfare,later Secretary of Commerce, Henry Wallace. As the Liberals ALL deserted his campaign en masse in '48, we have plunged off the cliff into permanent Cold War, infinitely escalating armaments, and our enslavement to the Military - Industrial - Congressional Complex as so passionately warned against by President Eisenhower. Since military spending produces NOTHING, it sucks the steam out of the economy which could otherwise be used for "liberal fluff-stuff like decent housing, health care, education, and a socially conscious science which would forsee and correct such matters as soil destruction, poisoned rivers, oceans, pollution, burning of the rainforests,the basic starvation now imposed upon about one half of the human race, and the tragic climate change which now looms as a threat to the very survival of Oxygen-breathing Life on earth. Space exploration, bio-med, humane, philosophical, democratic, artistic, literary & musical education and such would then be not extravagent, etc etc etc. The millions trapped in ghettoes, prisons, and degrading, socially & personally destructive JOBS, could be doing something worthy of their humanity, rather than carrying out the slavery we all presently endure. Henry Throeau said: "It is great to build castles in the air. Now we must set to work to put the foundations under them." Ashley Montagu wrote, 1950, 1966, "If we would establish a world of humanity, we MUST educate human motivations in terms of humanity and NOT of economics. We must remove economics as the dominant motive from human relations, and make human relations the dominant motive in economics. LET NO ONE BE DECEIVED, unless Western Man is able to release himself from the degrading tyranny of his enslavement to the religion of economics, he is certainly doomed to self-destruction." from "On Being Human" 1950, 1966, p 115.
The Democratic Party is committed to a somewhat less blatantly Fascistic version of the Same Game. For at least a beacon of Truth, Support Dennis Kucinich.