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Bush Could Double Force by Christmas
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is quietly on track to nearly double the number of combat troops in Iraq this year, an analysis of Pentagon deployment orders showed Monday.
The little-noticed second surge, designed to reinforce U.S. troops in Iraq, is being executed by sending more combat brigades and extending tours of duty for troops already there.
The actions could boost the number of combat soldiers from 52,500 in early January to as many as 98,000 by the end of this year if the Pentagon overlaps arriving and departing combat brigades.
Separately, when additional support troops are included in this second troop increase, the total number of U.S. troops in Iraq could increase from 162,000 now to more than 200,000 -- a record-high number -- by the end of the year.
The numbers were arrived at by an analysis of deployment orders by Hearst Newspapers.
"It doesn't surprise me that they're not talking about it," said retired Army Maj. Gen. William Nash, a former U.S. commander of NATO troops in Bosnia, referring to the Bush administration. "I think they would be very happy not to have any more attention paid to this."
The first surge was prominently announced by President Bush in a nationally televised address on Jan. 10, when he ordered five more combat brigades to join 15 brigades already in Iraq.
The buildup was designed to give commanders the 20 combat brigades Pentagon planners said were needed to provide security in Baghdad and western Anbar province.
Since then, the Pentagon has extended combat tours for units in Iraq from 12 months to 15 months and announced the deployment of additional brigades.
Taken together, the steps could put elements of as many as 28 combat brigades in Iraq by Christmas, according the deployment orders examined by Hearst Newspapers.
Army spokesman Lt. Col. Carl S. Ey said there was no effort by the Army to carry out "a secret surge" beyond the 20 combat brigades ordered by Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
"There isn't a second surge going on; we've got what we've got," Ey said. "The idea that there are ever going to be more combat brigades in theater in the future than the secretary of defense has authorized is pure speculation."
Ey attributed the increase in troops to "temporary increases that typically occur during the crossover period" as arriving combat brigades move into position to replace departing combat brigades.
He said that only elements of the eight additional combat brigades beyond the 20 already authorized would actually be in Iraq in December.
The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., that tracks combat forces heading to and returning from Iraq, declined to discuss unit-by-unit deployments.
"Due to operational security, we cannot confirm or discuss military unit movements or schedules," Navy Lt. Jereal Dorsey said in an e-mail.
The Pentagon has repeatedly extended unit tours in Iraq during the past four years to achieve temporary increases in combat power. For example, three combat brigades were extended up to three months in November 2004 to boost the number of U.S. troops from 138,000 to 150,000 before, during and after the Jan. 30, 2005, Iraqi national elections.
Lawrence Korb, an assistant defense secretary for manpower during the Reagan administration, said the Pentagon deployment schedule enables the Bush administration to achieve quick increases in combat forces in the future by delaying units' scheduled departures from Iraq and overlapping them with arriving replacement forces.
"The administration is giving itself the capability to increase the number of troops in Iraq," Korb said. "It remains to be seen whether they actually choose to do that."
Nash said the capability could reflect an effort by the Bush administration to "get the number of troops into Iraq that we've needed there all along."
© 2007 Hearst Communications Inc.
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40 Comments so far
Show AllYeah, we really sent him a message.
The second surge will hopefully convince Americans that the American war to pacify the Iraqi population is a failure, no matter how many US combat divisions are put in theatre. Like in Vietnam, or like the German war against Tito's forces in Yugoslavia during WWII, a war against the population is doomed to failure (unless the population is wiped out in high-enough numbers and the rest terrorized into compliance). As much as I sign petitions and call my reps to end all funding for the war, it may take this additional try at conquest to sufficiently outrage the US public against future imperialist adventures.
It should become apparent to anyone reading this, if it isn't blatantly so already, that our Commander In-Chief is going to continue to escalate this war as long as Congress gives him the money he is demanding. Even the "deadline" of September 30th, currently being discussed in Congress, is certain to give way as long as Bush remains the immovable object and Congress capitulates to his demands.
Even absent the optimism that my perspective normally entails, I can see that in November of 2008, the nation will likely be so sick of Bush and Company that they will vote resoundingly for Democrats, and we may end up with a winner-take-all scenario. That is what I believe the Democrats in Congress are hoping for. They may be right, and they may be wrong. But in the mean time, we should think of all the lives that are being lost each and every day that we remain in this ill-conceived war. We should consider that more than one family has a son or daughter that today is alive and healthy, tomorrow is dead or wounded for life. For every day that we persevere along a path that has already been exposed as a series of conscious lies, we lose a little more of our democracy, and as Americans, a little bit more of our humanity.
Many of us are locked in our work patterns, our lives and lifestyles, our choices and consequences, our stress patterns. Yet, what we fail to realize is that our nation's standard of living is not a given. Lest we fall to a fate that renders us a third-world nation, be it natural disasters, terrorist incidents, an eroding economy, or all of the above and more, we need to understand that our ability to care about what is happening in the rest of the world and moreover, what America is doing the world over, impacts every one else's life on this planet.
Some of us will demonstrate against this ill-begotten war. Could the rest of you at least take a moment silently or verbally acknowledge that this war will ruin far more than it will ever resolve? The sooner we end it, the less we will lose.
www.raycarlson.com
Um... dontcha get it? This buildup is all about Iran, dude. If Bush gets his way on this, it's game-over for western civilization.
This is about Iran, like CK mentions, and its about securing the oil prize of that region. Pit bull cheney has his teeth locked onto the neck of Iraq, and his little puppy W has his teeth sunk into the balls of the Democrats. They will copitulate, because they've been talked too. These guys are looking 20 30 years out. And know that he who controls the oil makes the rules, rules the world and will run the show. I hate it. But its the global reality. Lies got us into this, and lies will continue to be told to keep us there. Until they say is all about the oil - the rest is BS, BP, EM, Chevron, etc.
In an unwinnable quasi-war such as this, the more soldiers are involved, the more potential unrest in the ranks there will be. And the greater will also be the level of discontent at home.
It doesn't matter how many troops the stupid little psychopath sends into Iraq, or Iran. The people of the countries we invade will never stop fighting us. Nor should they.
This is the logical progression from what Reid and Pelosi have been doing. First, they barely objected to the original surge. A few pretty words against it, balanced by other Dems saying they'd back the President if this is what he says he needed. That was followed by zero legislative language objecting to this or restricting numbers of troops. Basically, a bright green light from the Dems.
Then, now we are seeing the Pentagon get complete approval for all the money they wanted, both in the supplemental and in next year's budget. Again, a bright green light from the Dems.
So, of course the next thing Bush is going to do is to send more troops. The one constant in the Republican playbook for the last 20 years has been that every time the Dems compromise, the Republicans ask for more. And especially now that the Dems have signalled their complete support for anything Bush wants in Iraq, of course he's going ask for more.
All of this is happening with the support and approval of the Dems. They could say no, but they won't. That means they've really said yes.
Of course it won't work. Go read Patrick Cockburn's excellent piece on what's happening in Baghdad. If anything, both US and Iraqi casualties have gone up. Pretty predictable for escalating warfare in the middle of a major urban center.
Parliament was shelled again yesterday. We can't even defend the Green Zone now.
Double, triple, quadruple...it never ends! Nor will it until this country admits it has no right to be master of the world...and its OIL!
Our Dems have given Bush another blank check. This Saturday, everyone take to the streets!!!
Josh,
Re: it may take this additional try at conquest to sufficiently outrage the US public against future imperialist adventures.
I wish I could support this hope, but quite frankly, I think the American public is a little more focused on American Idol, Desperate Housewives, and Dancing With the Stars to work up much outrage over Iraq. Especially when they or their loved ones aren't the ones who have to fight over there.
I have to agree with COMarc and Clark Kent. This is the future imperialist adventure. We are absolutely not leaving Iraq until we've sucked every last drop of that oil out of the ground, or until it becomes politically or financially infeasible to stay. If bombing neighboring countries like Iraq and Syria will further our aims over there, then you'd have to have been asleep for the last six years to think we won't do exactly that.
Which is OK with a lot of Americans. Who are those uppity Iranians anyway, thinking they can defy us like that! We'll show 'em!! Buncha al Qaeda terrorists is what they are...
Now can we get back to the football game? All this talk about Iraq is sooo boring!
IMPEACHMENT IS THE ONLY WAY TO STOP THIS PRESENT OCCUPIER OF OUR WHITE HOUSE.
Since Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, said that "impeachment is off the table," the anti-war MAJORITY has TRIED TO TELL HER it is NOT.
At the recent dinner for her at the California Democratic Convention, little place markers appeared on the tables saying: Impeachment is ON OUR TABLE.
The so-called "negotiations" in which the petulent occupier of the White House INSISTS on HIS WAY OR THE HIGHWAY should be enough to convince her that he is NOT TO BE CONTAINED.
We have a seriously out-of-control leader who is bent on destruction regardless of what the people in his country want or vote. There are LISTS of the various "high crimes or misdemeanors" for which he could be impeached. Please PICK ONE and get this underway.
###
You have to give the Bush criminal gang credit for audacity, though. They hope to make their friends in the oil industry extraordinarily wealthy, and add considerable wealth to other friends in the "defense" industry, and other related businesses like those providing private mercenaries or engaging in reconstruction, with expectations of their own quid pro quo later in terms of board appointments and special private deals. And they are asking, or really telling, the American people to sacrifice, in blood and money, to make this all come true. And what really takes audacity, or gall, is that even if the goals are reached and the Great Oil Robbery is successful, they do not plan on allowing any of the benefit to accrue to the common people of the US.
The American people are to pay all the costs of the robbery in terms of increased taxes and debts and soldiers lives lost or ruined, in terms of losing the opportunity to ensure future prosperity, and in terms of facing an angry world for the foreseeable future, but the American people will see no benefits. All the money to be made will flow to a few elites who will use that money to further bully their fellow Americans and further corrupt their government and their culture.
Now that takes some gall.
Point about oil. The play is not for today's output (we only get about 3% of our oil from Iraq). The Neocons are looking at 7-10 years from now, when the US's proven reserves run out. We currently use 20.5M bpd; about 8.5M bpd from the US, another 12M bpd imported.
Current importers (EIA/DOE data for 2006) avg. barrels per day:
1.6M - Canada
1.5M - Mexico
1.5M - Saudi Arabia
1.3M - Venezuela
1.0M - Nigeria
0.5M - Iraq
Iraq is hovering around 2.5M bpd production. If we doubled their production (and took/bought all of it), we still wouldn't have enough to make up for running out of US oil.
I'm not denying Iraq hinges upon oil (it does). Just pointing out that the problem coming down the road wouldn't be solved just via Iraq's oil production. Makes you wonder about Iran a little.
Back to Iraq. Anyone noticed how many of our troops (percentage-wise) are combat troops? Was about 1:3, now inching its way up to 1:2. Even in WWII, the ratio was only 1:5, Vietnam about 1:7. The trick is that we're using nearly 150K contractors to "free up" our soldiers so that they can get in harm's way.
If you look at it that way, when we hit 98K combat troops we'll have a similar or greater number of men on patrol on any given day as we did during Vietnam at its peak (543K troops - April '69). We have far fewer deaths and they're different wars relative to organized resistance (versus stuck in between a civil war). That also means that if things really go bad - say Sunni & Shia both decide to go after the US first, not each other; overrun bases & Green Zone - we could have far greater casualties rates than we are seeing now.
The Dems are playing a dangerous game acquiescing to Bush's funding for 4 months, and waiting for things to go badly in Iraq so they beat the Republicans politically in the next election. Bush already plays games with US soldier's lives. I'm dissapointed to see the Dems do it (somewhat) as well.
If "business is war" and "the business of America is business", then the business of America is war.
Good post Habitat Vic. I was listening to an energy expert on Bob Brinker's money talk program. He said that in 2018 or there abouts the worlds oil fields taken as a whole will be in production decline as has been the U.S. fields for some time. Mexico's huge oil field, second in size to only Saudi fields is in decline. The Saudis say their field is not in decline but as the oil analyst points out: no one has access to the Saudi numbers and he suspects that the Saudi field actually is in decline (kind of hard to be the "swing producer in that case). The Bush family may be close enough to the Saudi Royal family to know but even if they are not they can see that the Saudis are probably keeping their card close to the vest for a reason. He went on to say that ANWAR was significant oil source and taken in the over all scheme of things would not turn the decline tide for a day.
How come the new Senators against the war (Casey, Tester, Webb) Voted against ending the war in 3 months? I don't get it?
Government by the people, for the people? Does the public support this?
'More, more war
We were not fooled about the invasion of Iraq; we are not fooled about the war against Iran. We are a class that has no say about government and war.
Talk, talk, talk then choose up sides is our fate as the war expands unending.
Shall we this time have 2 millions in protest on an upcoming sunny Sunday? Shall we then say that is the best we can do?
"The horror... the horror..."'
W.Burns comment Guardian UK
The honorable Congressional Representative John Conyers, Chair of the House Judiciary Committee, will be attending a town hall meeting on impeachment in Detroit this coming Tuesday (5/29).
The event starts at 5pm. The venue is small so I hope that Common Dream readers will spread the word and fill the streets, unless you show up early.
The weather is nice, and it's time to make a statement.
Besides Conyers the discussion panel includes: Jack Lessenberry, Bill Goodman, JoAnn Watson, Maureen Taylor, Malik Rahim, Ann Wright, Ray McGovern, and Debra Sweet. Music with Spencer Barefield & Friends.
Location is Woodward and Adams at Grand Circus Park in downtown Detroit.
The event is being driven by the National Lawyers Guild, Miimpeach.org, et al and most importantly the United States Citizens.
The Democrats "collapse" on timetables for ending our occupation of Iraq is nauseating. What happened? Any guesses? Even Pelosi seems perplexed.
Meanwhile, they are training AIR FORCE TROOPS AT FORT DIX, NJ TO INCLUDE THEM IN GROUND WARFARE!!!
EDWARDS ASKED FOR AMERICANS TO MAKE THIS WEEKEND ABOUT THIS ILLEGAL WAR. SO FAR, AMERICANS STILL SEEM TO BE ASLEEP!!!
Yeah, c'mon you guys, impeach your insane president and that wacko Cheney, too!
I've been reading that there are some proceedings going on in towns here and there around the states but more of you need to
get involved.
Those guys still have what, a year and a half to wreak havoc, here there and everywhere... so please ITMFA!
You can do it, Americans!
It's time to face the music. The Democrats are going to sell us out, a tremendous disappointment, but a fact indeed. Bush will get whatever he wants, a war with Iran by the end of the year, and the comfort of knowing he has won his campaign without having to pull a coup-d'etat. The average American, like you and me, will never know what hit us, but our freedom is now gone by the treachery of the Democrats in falling on their collective asses and there is nothing we can do to stop it. It's later than you think.
"stupid little psychopath" (above) sums up a good percentage of the commentators here.
I'm AF gone through the DIX training. Why don't you who know nothing about the work at hand limit your comments to something you actually have a remote clue about?
If you're not part of the solution, then you are most certianly part of the problem.
shilalee May 22nd, 2007 10:20 pm
If you think you're getting some kind of break for being part of the equivalent of the Luftwaffe, you better think again. Uh, "the work at hand"? I suppose you mean the terror bombing of people who present no threat to you, the mass extermination of people trying to protect their own resources, and the "surge" of fascism all you morons seem to support.
I am just going to shut up and consume. A true patriot.
Every month send a hand written letter requesting your congressional representative(s) to take action and begin the impeachment of Bush and Cheney. Every month make a $20 cash contribution to a national impeachment campaign(s). Do what is necessary to make Kucinich a serious contender, the other democrats will take notice.
And the hardest step to take: Stop supporting the troops. The current administration needs Americans to support the troops. What was a genuine effort by Americans for American service people is being used by the neo-conservatives to continue the war.
Supporting the troops directly contradicts opposing the war. It is a phrase used to appease your emotional aversion to war and also keeps you from being called un-American. The phrase fosters inaction on your part, you are trapped in the ineffective gray area. You are safe in the middle, pacified and content.
"I oppose the war, but I support the troops"; you utter the phrase you feel better, but nothing changes. Propaganda at its best.
Purvis, "UH", you are in LA-LA land. "Terror bombing"? Sorry, stopped watching CNN years ago...
What kind of a break do you think any US citizen gets when they hope the best for America's future?
Meanwhile they hear people like you say Luftwaffe while demonstrating to all present that someone has turned your brain into MUSH before it even had a chance to mature and learn real actual history. Hey, gotta work in the morn. Regards all.
Soon I expect an increasing number of deserters or officer shooting incidents. The pressure is being cranked up on the troops as a result of Bu$h the inferior and 'shotgun' Cheney's masterful war planning and execution.
To increase the force further by Christmas will make life awfully tough for the troops we support by screwing them at every turn.
It is articles like this written by innumerate journalists that are so upsetting. Can somebody explain to me how it requires a total of 162K troops in total now, including 52K on the ground combat grunts, leaving 110K support personnel, but by December Bush can create a miracle and have 200K troops of which 98K are combat? That means it will take 102K to support 98K combat, but 110K support for 52K combat now. That means the US fighting force, instead of being tired and desperate to get out the quagmire, would suddenly have transformed into supermen(women). At least use elementary arithmetic before you scare the bejesus out of everyone!
Bring back the draft. Its the only solution. At least then ALL american people will be out on the streets protesting ... not just scraggly die-hards.
Hey, aymon, ever heard of Blackwater? We the taxpayers are paying Bush's 100,000 mercenaries $600/day EACH ONE to provide additional "security" services in Iraq, and I suspect that number is about to skyrocket. No wonder he has no money to properly armor the troops. He's spending it elsewhere.
Note to impeachers.
Remember the historical scorecard:
Assassination (Texas Recall) 4
Impeachment 1
"our freedom is now gone by the treachery of the Democrats". Really? Treachery to whom? To so called "investment community? Are you kidding?
Truman was a peaceloving Democrat when he started WW3 a.k.a. Cold War to deliver this planet to Wall Street, was not he?
Who was bombing Serbia and who made Dunabe River unlivable for several nations in 1998? Was he Republican or Democrat?
Stop BS-ing. There is no free lunch and we as Americans had a lot of free lunch.
Time has come to pay for it.
So, throw Dems and Reps out of your head as I did. Senator Menendez, for whom I worked last election, signed Military Commissions Act even before he was elected!
PNAC has been out there since the mid 90's for christs sake. there for all to see, dems and republicans. the document has been followed to a tee. not one politition or major news outlet has had the balls to bring it up. if bush is to be impeached, then all the rest who voted for the war are complicit. that is the reason it will never happen. they are all scrambleing to save their own asses.
We must keep in mind, that it is imperitive for all God loving Americans to support our duly elected President and the other Honorable elected elite. President Bush is briefed daily on highly classified information that we average Americans are not even aware of. He knows what is best for all of us and all of the rest of the world's populations also.
We need this second surge in Iraq in order to have enough combat ready troops availabe in the region to attack Iran when the time comes.
And the time is soon, before the next Presidential election, in case some flaming, ignorant liberal gets elected. In addition, don't forget we need more work for Haliburton, they've done such a magnificient job in Iraq and they now are about finished; we must keep our econony stable.
How's that sound? I bet if President Bush reads this, I can get a good job as one of his advisors, maybe even a war chief. Well, maybe someone could read it for him.
I have some other wonderful opinions and suggestions on almost any subject, that even our hard working President may not have thought of. For example, if we eradicate all of the ocean's stupid mammals, it would prevent the Japenese from over fishing the seas. This would alter their diet habits and they could buy corn from us. That would prevent using that valuable source of food from being wasted on making alternative fuels. Oil is the best option we have in that regard; there is more profit in oil. Haaa Haaa Haaaa.
This world was put here for humanity, not birds and bees, fish and all of the other dumb creatures living here.
If you disagree with me, you are a slime-bag human and should be jailed, you may even be a potential terrorist. Our new govenrnment that happily ignores our antiquated constitution, has dark, secret places to put you. Haaaaa Haaaa Haaaaa!
Adam and Eve were put in the Garden of Eden to tend it.
Bu$h the inferior believes God put him here to clear brush. Global warming, war and removal of all environmental control are just more effective brush clearing.
History, of course, will record Bu$h the inferior as the greatest president, because he is doing God's will.
On Judgment Day, Tony Blair, Congress, the military industrial complex and the media will be the accomplices.
Each of us should decide whether we want to be part of the prosecution or the defense at this trial.
People need to remind themselves private contractors recently had their "carte blanche" removed. That means the mercenary can be held responsible for his actions.
Much political ballyhoo directed at the mercs in recent months. Slots held by mercs might need to be filled in the near future. Get ready for some mercenaries to leave Iraq rather than incur any potential legal ramifications --just too costly for the hired gun.
last ¶:
Nash said the capability could reflect an effort by the Bush administration to "get the number of troops into Iraq that we've needed there all along."
Nash neglects to mention the privateers numbers. When the privateers numbers are added to the US Armed Forces numbers, the total number of "boots on the ground" are very close to what they"'ve needed there all along".
the left needs a real insane idealogy to compete with the rest of the political spectrum, republican and democrats, aka capitalist dogs. lets see they have bombs, they kill and maim people, they torture people, they imprison people. when do we get our turn and who do we kill and maim, torture and imprison. the first thing that comes to mind is illegal. but that doesn't bother cheney/bush. if its illegal for me then it should be illegal for them. what a connumdrum. if we were to kill the bastards we would be called terrorists, but they're called leaders for killing hundreds of thousands of innocent people. kill capitalism.