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One Billion to be Displaced by 2050, Global Warming a Factor, Group Warns
LONDON - At least one billion people risk fleeing their homes over the next four decades because of conflicts and natural disasters that will worsen with global warming, a relief agency warned Monday.
In a report, British-based Christian Aid said countries worldwide, especially the poorest, are now facing the greatest forced migration ever -- one that will dwarf those displaced by World War II.
In what at the time amounted to "the largest population displacement in modern history," it said, 66 million people were displaced across Europe by May 1945, in addition to the many millions more in China.
Today there are an estimated 163 million people worldwide who have been displaced by factors like conflict, drought and flooding as well as economic development projects like dams, logging and grain plantations, it said.
"We believe that forced migration is now the most urgent threat facing poor people in the developing world," said John Davison, author of "Human Tide: the real migration crisis."
While the figure is already "staggeringly high," the report warned that "in future, climate change will push it even higher.
"We estimate that over the years between now and 2050, a total of one billion people will be displaced from their homes," the 52-page report said.
The figures include 645 million who will migrate because of development projects, and 250 million because of phenomena linked to global warming like floods, droughts and famine, it said.
It said the conflict in western Sudan's Darfur region, which has displaced more than two million people, was not just driven by political forces but also by competition for increasingly scarce water and land to graze animals.
"Security experts fear that this new migration will fuel existing conflicts and generate new ones in the areas of the world -- the poorest -- where resources are most scarce," said a statement accompanying the report.
"A world of many more Darfurs is the increasingly likely nightmare," it added.
The problem is all the more alarming as those displaced in their own countries have no rights under international law and no official voice, it added.
The report also cited case studies in Colombia, Mali and Myanmar, also known as Burma, as major causes for concern.
With millions having fled a civil war between paramilitary groups and guerrillas in the last 20 years, it said, Colombians are now seeing land taken by paramilitaries-turned businessmen setting up palm oil and other plantations.
In Myanmar, it said ethnic minority groups like the Karen had suffered decades of violence, displacement and persecution only to see the military rulers now use the freed space for dams, logging and palm oil plantations.
Climate change, it said, will drive the growth of grain-producing plantations as rich countries will raise demand for bio-fuels over crude oil in a bid to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
"In Mali, the threat from climate change is more immediate," it said.
Crop yields have fallen sharply with erratic and declining rainfall levels, forcing farmers to move to feed their families.
Christian Aid, which was created to help refugees from World War II, published the report to mark the 50th door-to-door fundraising in Britain. It hopes to raise 15.5 million pounds (22.72 million euros, 30.7 million dollars).
Copyright © 2007 Agence France Presse.
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Show All"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully."
George W Bush – September 2000
Homeless and with no fish to eat:
http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=1626322006
This is a must see video. Links at http://www.chycho.com/?q=node/459
A Child pleaded for the Future, but we didn't Listen
Video: "I am Only A Child" (6:40) - This is a speech that Severn Cullis-Suzuki gave in 1992 during the Earth Summit meeting in Rio. In this speech she pleaded for governments and corporations to stop polluting and help save the future of humanity. Unfortunately the establishment did not listen.
This is a must see video. It will plainly show you how urgent the situation has become regarding the health of the earth. The environmental catastrophe that we face right now is not a new phenomenon, and the battle to save our environment has been ragging for decades.
We must take action by removing those in power who refuse to implement the changes required to stop global warming and the pollution of the environment. If we are to save future generations from disease, poverty, and the anguish that will come with an environmental collapse, then we must hold those in power accountable.
In 1992 our leaders did not listen and we did nothing to demand change. In 2007, many of our leaders are still refusing to listen. The situation is much more grave now then it was 15 years ago, and it is time that we as a collective demanded that our leaders implement the changes required to save the environmental diversity of our Earth.
Further information on how to help to bring about change is available at Earth Focus and at Greenpeace International.
But, the "leftist" pundit Alexander Cockburn, of "The Nation" and "Counterpunch" fame thinks this as all just fearmongering hooey! One more going the way of that chain-smoking drunk bore Hitchens...
http://www.counterpunch.com/cockburn05122007.html
No need to travel the world to see cause and the solution.
Either we end autosprawl, or it ends us.
What is you pleasure?
http://www.freepublictransit.org
I notice a "subtle" difference between the headline and the facts reported in the article:
Headline says: One Billion to be Displaced by 2050, Global Warming a Factor, Group Warns
Article includes these numbers:
The figures include 645 million who will migrate because of development projects, and 250 million because of phenomena linked to global warming like floods, droughts and famine, it said.
Okay, so 650 million est because of "development projects" and 250 million global-warming-related. But it's global warming that gets mention in the headline.
swords into plowshares
arms into aquaducts
Because we billions addicted to commercial power refuse to listen, think and change, there may be no living Earth and no human civilization to review on 2050, a date uncounted by an extinct race of predators. Look in the mirror.
wow! do you really think that with the pace that the climate is changing humanity has until 2050 before this many people are displaced? i think that is very optimisitic.hundreds of thousands have been displaced in the united states already as the result of one storm that was widely anticipated and prepared for.we dont know whats coming. and it is going to put anything weve ever witnessed to shame.my advice to anyone who enjoys eating is to try to start providing for your own food supply by growing what you can. i realize this is difficult for most people but in the not too distant future you will not be able to rely on others for your sustinence.i see worldwide fundraising efforts by do-gooders to save valuble land from development but more often than not these efforts are to provide parkland for future generations. we dont need that. we need to start saving all farmland that can be used to food for human consumption rather than fodder for our fuel tanks. anyone of a like mind that would be interested or has the time and organizational skills that im lacking at this juncture that would like to help try and get a worldwide farmland permanent sustainability movement going please contact me at .........thomrick747@hotmail.com........ and lets brainstorm as to how we can get this going. in this day and age of media access to all WE CAN DO IT !!!!!
thomrick747.....
Yes, it can be done and has been done quite successfully by the Mormons. Every household is required to keep at least one years supplies on hand in case of an extended emergency as well, the church as a whole has built up extensive food supplies.
You could try the Mormon site and find a list of goods that can be safely stored. Water is a biggie but by carefully marking the dates, old supplies are constantly being renewed by newer ones. The same applies to tinned goods. Grains are also stored and carefully sealed to avoid pests.
You are right. There is a lot that individual households can do to provide even a minimum selection of foods for emergencies.
For sure in those states which have suffered from extensive storms it is all the more necessary that people secure their provisions very carefully from floods that can destroy even the best laid plans. I would suggest steel drums to protect grains and flour and dried vegetables (the kind that can be reconstituted with water).
I used to have the list, but I do know it is available on line via the church.
While I haven't done a great deal (I'm actually to old and do not have a hope of living beyond the next few years, but I have instructed my children about this very necessary 'looking after themselves'. They all have homes and basements etc.
We've all become so used to the abundance of food here in both Canada and the US that we take a lot for granted where our food supplies are concerned. Certainly, there are some things we may not be able to store...fat's come to mind..in the form of butter, lard, shortening etc. But those can be substituted by oils like Cannola - a vegetable fat.
There are also dried fruits such as apples and raisins and some I haven't thought about.
It's good to see someone thinking of the future
According to momma Bush they are disadvantaged anyway - so this is working out for them anyway.
Get real, NOBODY really cares about the poor unless they get too close to the gated community. Then they get them driven off.
The elite also thinks they can buy an environment to surround them so they don't care about the environment either.
Elite types need to fear for their money or their life before they will back down one inch. Now take your dry bread crust and go away!
Such headlines will bite back in the future.
No human knows what will happen in 2020, let alone 2050.
In 1970, in Time Magazine, an alarm over global cooling was raised, based on scarce evidence. The scientific evidence on global warming is very much stronger, still the overblown 1970 headlines weaken its appeal very much with relatively uninformed people (ie the majority).
On global warming, one should suffice with firmly stating that GHG-emissions destabilize the climate: what the future evolution will be, nobody knows (chaos theory attests to that).