Emerging Republican Minority
Remember how the 2004 election was supposed to have demonstrated, once and for all, that conservatism was the future of American politics? I do: early in 2005, some colleagues in the news media urged me, in effect, to give up. "The election settled some things," I was told.
But at this point 2004 looks like an aberration, an election won with fear-and-smear tactics that have passed their sell-by date. Republicans no longer have a perceived edge over Democrats on national security — and without that edge, they stand revealed as ideologues out of step with an increasingly liberal American public.
Right now the talk of the political chattering classes is a report from the Pew Research Center showing a precipitous decline in Republican support. In 2002 equal numbers of Americans identified themselves as Republicans and Democrats, but since then the Democrats have opened up a 15-point advantage.
Part of the Republican collapse surely reflects public disgust with the Bush administration. The gap between the parties will probably get even wider when — not if — more and worse tales of corruption and abuse of power emerge.
But polling data on the issues, from Pew and elsewhere, suggest that the G.O.P.'s problems lie as much with its ideology as with one man's disastrous reign.
For the conservatives who run today's Republican Party are devoted, above all, to the proposition that government is always the problem, never the solution. For a while the American people seemed to agree; but lately they've concluded that sometimes government is the solution, after all, and they'd like to see more of it.
Consider, for example, the question of whether the government should provide fewer services in order to cut spending, or provide more services even if this requires higher spending. According to the American National Election Studies, in 1994, the year the Republicans began their 12-year control of Congress, those who favored smaller government had the edge, by 36 to 27. By 2004, however, those in favor of bigger government had a 43-to-20 lead.
And public opinion seems to have taken a particularly strong turn in favor of universal health care. Gallup reports that 69 percent of the public believes that "it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage," up from 59 percent in 2000.
The main force driving this shift to the left is probably rising income inequality. According to Pew, there has recently been a sharp increase in the percentage of Americans who agree with the statement that "the rich get richer while the poor get poorer." Interestingly, the big increase in disgruntlement over rising inequality has come among the relatively well off — those making more than $75,000 a year.
Indeed, even the relatively well off have good reason to feel left behind in today's economy, because the big income gains have been going to a tiny, super-rich minority. It's not surprising, under those circumstances, that most people favor a stronger safety net — which they might need — even at the expense of higher taxes, much of which could be paid by the ever-richer elite.
And in the case of health care, there's also the fact that the traditional system of employer-based coverage is gradually disintegrating. It's no wonder, then, that a bit of socialized medicine is looking good to most Americans.
So what does this say about the political outlook? It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. But at this point it looks as if we're seeing an emerging Republican minority.
After all, Democratic priorities — in particular, on health care, where John Edwards has set the standard for all the candidates with a specific proposal to finance universal coverage with higher taxes on the rich — seem to be more or less in line with what the public wants.
Republicans, on the other hand, are still wallowing in nostalgia — nostalgia for the days when people thought they were heroic terrorism-fighters, nostalgia for the days when lots of Americans hated Big Government.
Many Republicans still imagine that what their party needs is a return to the conservative legacy of Ronald Reagan. It will probably take quite a while in the political wilderness before they take on board the message of Arnold Schwarzenegger's comeback in California — which is that what they really need is a return to the moderate legacy of Dwight Eisenhower.
© Copyright 2007 New York Times
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15 Comments so far
Show All"For a while the American people seemed to agree; but lately they've concluded that sometimes government is the solution, after all, and they'd like to see more of it."
Sometimes government is the solution - the solution to the problems they themelves have created through corrupt legislation.
What we need is a small group of individuals in government who are more devoted to its citizens and less devoted to the coprorate elite who can afford to buy legislation for the benefit of their global shareholders.
Loyalty to country doesn't exist any more in a Congress where both parties have sold-out to the super-wealthy around the world. While Japan, China and other countries engage in protectionist trade, the U.S. trade deficit is skyrocketing. The only protectionist measures our Congress will engage in are geared to protect the greed of the wealthy and super-wealthy.
Yes, Poet March. You said pretty much what it's about. And another thing. What the hell is wrong with government? We need government for so many things that I can't even begin to list them. What we don't need is bad, wasteful government. That's why we have constitutions. That's why we need to refamiliarize ourselves with the very real benefits of impeachment and use them now.
Finally, if my memory serves me, it's the republicans which are always increasing the size of government. Just look at how much it's grown since George the Idiot was placed in power. Reagan was no better and his lies about how great privitization is are now obvious failures. Some things just can't be trusted to the private sector where profits outweigh the common good.
So lets get started with a little Spring house cleaning, send the criminals to jail, get out of Iraq and leave their oil alone and start using our heads again. Any idiot without a vested interest in the status quo would be hard at work finding a way to free ourselves of dependence on other countries and their natural resources. This would save so much money and lives. And it just makes sense. We can do it. We've probably been able to do it for years already but the big oil companies won't let it happen. Hell, we can't even get our fuel efficiency standards raised. Those preventing this are enemies of the state and if I had a say in the matter, they would be tried for treason and crimes against humanity.
They talk so easily of welfare moms, and being soft on crime, or family values that it disgusts me. They are nothing more than trust fund babies and hypocrites.
people are always talking about privatizing and downsizing the government. Its not a horrible idea in some aspects. Rather than the government being responsible for rebuilding IRAQ or Hurricane clean up, they instead contract it to a private organization. Seems ok if the job is done at a reasonable price. But since all these PRIVATE jobs are given without a bid to the same company, would that not be the same as that company being a government entity, only with a few, and i mean few, people making money for doing nothing but having stock in a company and/or signing the deal? Privatization wouldnt be so bad if many private companies were able to contribute, hence spreading the wealth around.
Also, when most republicans talk about downsizing the government, they always mention entitlement programs, medicare, welfare and the likes. And truthfully i agree with that to a point. But what is never discussed is the corporate welfare. A company like walmart, the most profitable company in the world, gets all their land for free. Gas companies get subsidies for research despite being right up there with walmart. How about when a company like Ford is near bankruptcy. The government steps in to protect the stock holders. THat is good government, but if i lose my job and need help getting by till i can find another, thats bad government. Remember, stockholders are typically rich people, poor people dont have excess money to invest. Should rich people not be subject to the same ups and downs and the less fortunate? If a corporation fails, it fails, you gambled you lost.
Don't you get it? Democrats and Republicans are just playing "Pass The Baton". Repubs take 5 Giant Leaps forward and the Dems take ½ a Baby Step backwards, if we're lucky. Putting your faith in either party is a recipe for disaster. What happens when "the people" shift from one party to another? The other party feels that we have to vote for them, because what choice do we have? Therefore they do as little as possible. The fact is, we never really had a choice in the first place. Think about it--We have actually let 2 families rule for 18 years already--"The American Monarchy". Bushers & Clintonites rule! It's freaking incredible. I guess we'll put our faith in Hillary, a Democrat if she wins the nomination, making it 24 or 28 years of rule. It won't stop until the Bush Twins are in office. Furthermore, I work for my boss because he pays me. I don't work for the person who told me about the job. It's the same way for our politicians. They work for big business and lobbyists, even foreign ones such as the AIPAC a powerful Israel lobby. Have you ever wondered, why is it so important for other countries to admit that Israel has the right to exist and not the other way around?
Like Ken Mitchell I am disillusioned with the two major parties but unlike him I have registered with the Green Party.
As far as any diference between the parties, that's baloney. Both are in bed with the think tank, corporate, military-industrial complex.
The Republicans are quite confortable with going, hat in hand, to collect AFDC (or aid for dependent corporations as Nader puts it)when their business plans go belly up.
The Republican jobs program consists primarily of the Defense Department budget in whose name productive effort is mobilized for death and destruction.
Republicans love taxes as long as they are heaped upon those who are poorer and given to those who are rich. (Robin Hood in reverse!)Ditto for government spending as long as it is financed by debt instead of taxes on all
Small business is another Republican darling entitled to nurse at the federal breast.
Republicans love socialist policies for themselves and their pals, but disdain it for any others. Democrats quietly go along with it like they are jealous that they hadn't thought of it first. A plague on both of their houses!
I don't think the main problem for the Republicans is their favoring of small government--which many Americans THINK they believe in--it's the Republicans' intimate association with the Religious Right.
Bush has not just discredited himself, his anti-New Deal domestic policies, and his neo-con foreign policies, he has also discredited his peculiar, fundamentalist brand of so-called Christianity.
The Religious Right hitched their wagon to what they thought was a star, only to find out it was a turd blossom.
People are finally coming to realize that Big Business is worse than Big Government. Both are inefficient, unwieldy, and can be corrupt, but at least Big Government is nominally under The People's control. I can't imagine anything worse than the non-health-coverage I'm paying for now under our lauded "choice" system. And, surprise, surprise, we've discovered that bureaucratic nightmares aren't just the province of government. Here's the next Republican myth to be exposed - taxes aren't automatically bad! Do the Libs and the Repubs want to privatize the streets and have us all be responsible for paving the section in front of our houses? I'm ready to pay more taxes for Medicare, single-payer health insurance.
Krugman uses the term "shift to the left" to describe people's growing liberality, due in part to income inequality. If so many people are left, how can it still be called LEFT? Actually, it is the CENTER that has shifted toward liberality.
As for those making comments declaiming the Democratic Party. We know the Dems are not perfect but after six years of Republican domination, no one in their right mind can still say Repugs and Dems are the same. That said more progressive Dems must work to reclaim power in the Democratic Party. We need campaign finance reform to eliminate or at least minimize the influence of lobbyists on BOTH parties.
And the Bush Republican neocon policies are based on Reagan's ideas so all of us should quash those idealizing Reagan, who gave us Iran-Contra and helped decimate the unions and the middle class. Speak up for economic justice!!
I used to appreciate Paul Krugman's analysis, but having realized that we no longer live under a two-party system of representative government, but rather a two-party dictatorship ruling on behalf of the corporate elite and the New World Order, I find his analysis disingenuous in the extreme.
There's this myth in conservative circles that government spending is somehow a bad thing. Nothing could be more wrongheaded. Money spent becomes part of the economy. It's economic activity! Every dollar spent is income to someone, and they will spend it as well, on wages, raw materials, whatever, it gets spent and re-spent, thus enlarging the economy. Not only is there nothing wrong with that, it's very beneficial. The Great Depression was ended by government spending.
Because money flows uphill, even if a source of funds for government spending is taxes on the wealthy class, in the form of repealed tax cuts, for example, they end up with it right back in their pockets anyway. May as well tax them on some of their income and send it around again, to the benefit of everyone.
The measure of economic health is not how much money is held, but how much money is spent -- circulated. It's the circulation of the money that equates to prosperity, not the holding of it. If an economy stagnates, it is the responsibility of government to spend enough to rev things up again.
All the conservative complaints about entitlements and socialized medicine and all their carping about what an unfair burden taxes are for industry, this is all a smokescreen born of stupidity and ignorance born of greed. Government spending is like a giant goose laying golden eggs for everyone. Why kill that?
Think of it this way: consider the opposite extreme. What if economic conservatives could have their way and "starve the beast" called government. No spending by government at all. What then? Roads crumble, buildings collapse, water becomes undrinkable, the air becomes unbreathable, airplanes crash into each other, schools close, people become restive, riots ensue. If you think market forces would prevent those kinds of consequences, you're dreaming or on drugs.
Market forces would cause those effects as greed drove every corporation to pillage the marketplace. The wealthy class would provide services, but only for itself, leaving the vast majority to fend (badly) for themselves. Think this isn't so? Look at the Katrina debacle. This is how government responds to social crisis when that government is run by people who don't believe in government. Which victims got their insurance payments and their houses rebuilt in the Gulf Coast region following Katrina and which ones got screwed? You know the answer. The government stepped aside and the wealthy class took care of its own.
Extremes are not healthy on either end of a spectrum. Overtaxing would be counterproductive because it would rob businesses and individuals of incentive and discourage entrepreneurship. There's a happy medium to be found in tax and spend. It's up to responsible government to find that happy medium.
Probably most taxes should come from corporate revenue rather than taxes on wages. A corporate revenue tax would not have to impact corporations adversely because the taxes would simply be passed on in the price of goods. This is fair, as long as wages are not taxed, because the end user has to pay the costs anyway. What do you suppose people would do with the extra money in every paycheck if they weren't taxed on income? They'd spend it! What a bonanza! For rich and working poor and middle class alike!
As economic stimulus, tax cuts should therefore be applied at the bottom of the economic ladder and taper upwards, with the super wealthy getting no tax cuts at all. They'll still get richer because working people will spend the extra money and money flows uphill.
Doesn't this make a lot of sense? Yes, but economic conservatives have to see past their greed. They have to realize that everyone including themselves can become wealthier through government spending and tax cuts for the working class.
This is not socialism, it's capitalism. Sensible capitalism. This is not advocating collective ownership by the people of the means of production, which has been shown not to work. It is healthy capitalism where the legitimate needs of all sectors of the society are taken into consideration and prosperity is boosted for everyone, not just for some. This means that government spending and government regulation of industry and the marketplace are necessary. The wealthy class has to see past its own greed in order to make that a reality.
What politician will step up to the plate and propose these policies?
I dearly hope Krugman is right. It all depends on whether Americans are really moving left and whether they really are open to more government doing good things for them. Dems started having an inferiority complex in the 94 election and it lasted thru the 90's. It partly explains Gore's capitulation and Bush's expectation to win. That was the clincher for dems. They started to doubt whether they were in lockstep with the will of the people and lost their spine. Nothing breeds success like a winner and nothing breeds loss like a self-doubting loser. It's understandable tho: when everything you stand for seems to be repudiated how long does it take before you lose your nerve? Most people crack pretty soon. Ultimately it's up to us, the people. Are we going to make the country safe for the return of true Democratic ideas? Contrary to popular opinion it's not really the responsibility of Democrat politicians to make the world safe for Democrats, it's ours.
The inability of the current (R)'s serving our nation to realize your assumption is what is leading to thier overall demise. The more lock-step they walk with Bush, the slimmer their re-election chances get. They have failed to take into account the presence of alternative media sources that the general public has diversified into. They no longer have the powerful misinformation network that helped get them elected in the first place. I can agree with a previous commentor that the Fascist influence of the Corporate entity may still exist, but the absolute monopoly of our Government declines with every (R) that losses office. It's up to the people to keep up the pressure on the (D)'s and stay abreast of any policies that seem to resemble the failed Conservative Agenda. Through the reality of what we lost under Bush, I think were ready to meet that challenge.
"an election won with fear-and-smear tactics"
Economic Republicans know they can't win elections on their own. Most people in the United States are not market fundamentalists as Economic Republicans are.
Economic Republicans don't want democratic, environmental, or scientific values getting in the way of their favored economic values.
That is why they have to use fear and smear tactics to win elections. They also try to get religious voters on their side by using gays, minorities, and liberals to scare religious voters to vote for Republicans.
They bond with religious voters by using a similar tactic of telling religious voters that they should hate government and Washington DC or else democratic, environmental, and scientific values will get in the way of their favored religious values.
I think the tide has turned, but the Economic Republicans still have a leg up because our entire election system is largely based on who has the most money to buy air time from the monopoly controlled media.
Still, who needs Republicans with Democrats like these?
Since they're all beholden to the Corps, the corporate MSM still only represents the corporate spin. Doesn't matter how the people vote or how many elections the Republicans lose, or for that matter, are convicted criminals--Tom Delay, Pat Buchannon are regulars almost every night of the week-setting, setting the stage and spinning.
Under the circumstances, Americans should be given credit for not buying the same old crap of get big gubbermint offa our back.
I'm a Libertarian. I am disgusted with both major parties.